Christians2026 · Full report
Across 3,142 counties, the Democratic margin in each state's top 2026 race shifted +14.7 points from Harris's 2024 margin, counting all votes together, and 98% of counties moved toward Democrats. Use the tabs to rank counties and districts and to compare the religious makeup of the biggest and smallest movers.
The first row averages the counties shown, weighted by 2024 votes (2026 votes is a plain average); it follows the State, Movers and County size filters but not Search. Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns count congregation members, not how people identify. Click a column to sort.
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* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the — counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
Blue counties moved toward Democrats from 2024 to 2026 and red ones toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Click a county to zoom to its state and see its details below the map, including its share of the 2024 vote; choose All states to zoom back out. Counties outside the Movers and County size filters are faded. Alaska reports by State House district, so it isn't colored.
"House race vs. 2024 president" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline). It is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes, so it covers every district. Click a district to see its counties.
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One row per county per district. A county split across districts appears once under each, with the share of its House vote cast in that district. Dem movement is measured for the whole county, so a split county shows the same number under each district.
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* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the — counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
The U.S. Religion Census, distributed by ARDA, counts people tied to a congregation: members, their children and regular attendees, as each church, synagogue, mosque or temple reports them. It does not ask anyone their religion. So "Christian" here means belonging to a Christian congregation, and "No Congregation" includes many people who would call themselves Christian, or another faith, but don't belong to one. That is why No Congregation is much larger than the share of Americans who tell surveys they have no religion.
For each tradition, the counties where it makes up the highest share of the 2020 population (Top 5%, 10% and 20%) and the lowest (Bottom 20%, 10% and 5%), so the columns run from most to least. Each figure is those counties' average Dem movement; the first row is the average for all counties, and bold means above it. Counties tied at a cutoff are all included, so a group can be bigger than its percentage; for traditions missing from many counties, such as Orthodox or Latter-day Saints, the bottom groups are every county with none. Follows the options above. Religion data: 2020 U.S. Religion Census, distributed by ARDA, which counts residents, not voters.
| Tradition | All counties% of population | Top 5%Highest share | Top 10%Highest share | Top 20%Highest share | Bottom 20%Lowest share | Bottom 10%Lowest share | Bottom 5%Lowest share |
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Counties grouped into bands by the chosen group's share of the 2020 population, with cutoffs near every tenth of counties nationally ("None" is counties with none of the group). Bars are each band's average Dem movement, weighted by 2024 votes, and the dashed line is the national average. Leaves out the — counties where church members outnumber residents. Follows the State filter.
Leaves out the — counties where church members outnumber residents. Dot size is 2024 votes.
Follows the State, Movers, County size and Search filters. Each tradition is shown as a share of the county's 2020 population and as a share of its religious adherents. Alaska reports by State House district, which has no religion data.
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* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the — counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
For each county, the Democratic margin (Democratic share minus Republican share of all votes cast) in the state's top 2026 race, minus Harris's margin over Trump in 2024. Positive numbers mean the county moved toward Democrats.
The Race column in the Top counties table shows which race a county uses. Because candidates differ by state, part of each county's movement reflects its state's race. The Ohio, Florida, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota Senate results were pulled from NBC News on Nov. 6; everything else on Nov. 4–5.
Each county is assigned to the current congressional districts its House votes were cast in, including the 2025–26 redrawn maps. "House vs. 2024" is the 2026 House margin minus Harris's 2024 margin within the district's current lines, from NBC News. A race counts only when a Democrat and a Republican ran and together took at least 80% of the vote. "Top race" averages the county numbers above, weighted by each county's House votes in the district.
2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB), the county data distributed by ARDA. Each of about 370 religious bodies is grouped into a tradition, following the census's own classification: evangelical, mainline and Black Protestant, Catholic, Orthodox, Latter-day Saints, other Christian (mainly Jehovah's Witnesses) and other faiths. National totals match the census's published table to within 0.2% for each tradition. Each tradition is shown two ways: as a share of the county's 2020 population, and as a share of its religious adherents. The census counts residents, not voters, and it counts belonging to a congregation, not how people identify: No Congregation includes people who consider themselves Christian or another faith but don't belong to a congregation. It counts members where their church is, not where they live, so in a few small counties members outnumber residents; those counties are marked with an asterisk and left out of the scatter plot. Black Protestant bodies are undercounted in the 2020 census, and "No Congregation" counts people not tied to any counted congregation, which is not the same as survey "nones."
Top 20% and bottom 10% movers are ranked across all counties with a 2026 result. In the religion table, the top and bottom groups for each tradition are the counties with the highest and lowest share of it (20%, 10% and 5%), ranked within the county set chosen there (all counties, or counties with 20,000+ people). Counties tied at a cutoff are all included.
2026 results: NBC News (AP data), unofficial, pulled the day after the election; some counties were still counting. 2024 results: county presidential results compiled from state reports. Connecticut uses its eight historic counties, rebuilt from town results. Alaska uses State House districts. The District of Columbia is not included.
Snapshot exported November 5, 2026. 2026 results are unofficial (NBC News / AP data, pulled November 4, some counties still counting). 2024 results are county presidential returns. Religion data: 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB), distributed by ARDA. See the “How it’s measured” tab for methods and caveats.