# Christians2026

> The more Christian and Protestant a county was, the more it moved toward Democrats in the 2026 election. Christians2026 is a project of Evangelicals for A Better Future PAC. Paid for by Evangelicals for A Better Future PAC. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.

In the most Christian 5% of counties, Democrats gained 20.5 points on Harris's 2024 margin, and 22.9 points in the 10 most Christian counties with 5,000+ voters (leaving out counties where church members outnumber residents), against a national average of 14.5. That's more than twice the 9.4-point gain in the least Christian 5%. Every one of the 158 most evangelical counties (top 5% by evangelical share) moved toward Democrats. (Top and bottom 5% of counties by share of the 2020 population; Dem movement weighted by 2024 votes.)

Across 3,142 counties, the Democratic margin in each state's top 2026 race shifted 14.7 points toward Democrats from Harris's 2024 margin, counting all votes together. 3,088 counties moved toward Democrats; the median county moved 14.4 points.

Dem movement by Christian share of the 2020 population (cutoffs near every tenth of counties; average weighted by 2024 votes; leaves out 30 counties where members outnumber residents): 0-29% +11.0; 29-34% +12.1; 34-38% +12.9; 38-43% +14.3; 43-47% +14.6; 47-51% +14.1; 51-56% +17.4; 56-62% +17.0; 62-71% +15.3; 71%+ +18.3.

Dem movement by Protestant share (same method): 0-12% +14.2; 12-18% +12.4; 18-22% +13.7; 22-27% +13.8; 27-32% +15.2; 32-37% +17.9; 37-43% +17.6; 43-49% +16.7; 49-58% +16.1; 58%+ +16.4.

Evangelicals: Every one of the 158 most evangelical counties (top 5% by evangelical share, 53.9%+ of residents) moved toward Democrats, gaining 16.2 points on Harris's 2024 margin, 12% more than the 14.5-point national average; Trump carried 155 of them in 2024 and 155 moved toward Democrats. In the 208 majority-evangelical counties, 208 moved toward Democrats (average 16.1 points, 11% more than the national average). The least evangelical 5% gained 13.8.

Definitions: "Dem movement" is the Democratic margin in the state's top 2026 race minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion figures come from the 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB), distributed by ARDA, and count belonging to a congregation, not how people identify; they count residents, not voters. 2026 results are unofficial (NBC News / AP data, pulled November 4–6, 2026). Top race: Senate where a Democrat and a Republican ran, including the Ohio and Florida special elections; in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota the independent who was the Republican's main opponent counts as the Democratic side; otherwise the total U.S. House vote; no governor's races.

## Pages
- [Home: charts, map, county and district rankings](https://christians2026.com/)
- [Key questions answered](https://christians2026.com/#faq)
- [How it's measured](https://christians2026.com/#method)
- [Full report and data downloads](https://christians2026.com/data.html)
- [Results by state: every county and congressional district, with religious makeup](https://christians2026.com/states/index.html)

## Data
- [Full interactive report (HTML)](https://christians2026.com/report/2026-dem-movement-by-religion.html)
- [Counties CSV](https://christians2026.com/data/christians2026-counties.csv)
- [Congressional districts CSV](https://christians2026.com/data/christians2026-districts.csv)
- [Counties by district CSV](https://christians2026.com/data/christians2026-county-by-district.csv)
- [States CSV](https://christians2026.com/data/christians2026-states.csv)
- [Everything (ZIP)](https://christians2026.com/data/christians2026-data.zip)

## Contact
- contact@evangelicalsforabetterfuture.com