Christians2026

The more Christian and Protestant a county was, the more it moved toward Democrats.

In the most Christian 5% of counties, Democrats gained 20.5 points on Harris's 2024 margin, more than twice the 9.4-point gain in the least Christian 5%. Every one of the 158 most evangelical counties moved toward Democrats.

Explore by religious groupKey questions answered

Democrats will have 9 pastors and seminarians in Congress next year. That is 3x more than the GOP and the largest number of Democratic clergy in Congress in over 200 years.

+14.5
National average Dem movement, all counties
+20.5
Dem movement in the most Christian 5% of counties
+22.9
Dem movement in the 10 most Christian counties (5,000+ voters)
158 of 158
Most evangelical counties (top 5%) that moved toward Democrats

Dem Vote Movement by County Religious Make-up

Average Dem movement, 2024 to 2026, in the counties with the highest share of church attending population. Across all counties the average was +14.5.

Highest share of church attending population
Religious groupTop 5%Top 10%Top 20%
All counties3,102 counties · the average+14.5+14.5+14.5
Christian (all)+20.5+18.4+16.5
Protestant (all)+17.4+16.5+16.1
Evangelical Protestant+16.2+16.4+16.6
Mainline Protestant+10.6+11.9+13.8
Catholic+15.5+14.6+14.2
Other faithsJewish, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, other+13.6+14.0+14.3
Not Church Attendingnot counted in any congregation+9.5+11.9+11.5
SmallerLarger Dem movementBold = above the +14.5 all-county average

Dem movement = 2026 Dem margin in each state's top race (Senate where a Democrat and a Republican ran, including the Ohio and Florida special elections; in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota the independent who was the Republican's main opponent counts as the Democratic side; otherwise the total U.S. House vote; no governor's races) minus the 2024 Harris–Trump margin, in points; county averages weighted by 2024 votes. 3,102 counties (Alaska excluded). 2026 results are unofficial, as reported by NBC News on Nov. 4–6.

Religion: 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB, via ARDA), members of each group as a share of all county residents. The census counts congregation membership, not belief or identity, so “Not Church Attending” means residents not counted in any congregation, including people who would call themselves Christian. Members are counted where their congregation is located. Counties tied at a cutoff are all included.

Explore the data

Filter the map and the county and district rankings below by state, district, size or religious makeup.

Map of Dem movement by county

Blue counties moved toward Democrats from 2024 to 2026 and red ones toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Click a county to zoom to its state, and choose All states to zoom back out. Counties outside the Movers, County size and religion filters are faded. Alaska reports by State House district, so it's colored with its statewide movement.

Counties ranked by Dem movement

Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns count congregation members, not how people identify. Click a column to sort.

Browse every county by state →

* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 30 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.

Congressional districts ranked by Dem movement

"House race vs. 2024 president" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline). It is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes, so it covers every district.

Christian Share by Region

Key questions about Christians and the 2026 election

Short answers from the county and district data. Figures are weighted by 2024 votes unless noted. Get the full report and data.

Did Christian counties move toward Democrats in 2026?

Yes. The more Christian and Protestant a county was, the more it moved toward Democrats. In the most Christian 5% of counties, Democrats gained 20.5 points on Harris's 2024 margin, and 22.9 points in the 10 most Christian counties with 5,000+ voters, against a national average of 14.5. That's more than twice the 9.4-point gain in the least Christian 5%. Every one of the 158 most evangelical counties moved toward Democrats. (Most and least: the top and bottom 5% of counties by share of population; the 10 most Christian counties leave out counties where church members outnumber residents. Dem movement weighted by 2024 votes.)

How much did counties move toward Democrats overall?

Across 3,142 counties, the Democratic margin in each state's top 2026 race shifted 14.7 points toward Democrats from Harris's 2024 margin, counting all votes together. 3,088 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved 14.4 points.

Who are the Democratic pastors and seminarians in the next Congress?

Nine Democrats with clergy or seminary backgrounds will serve in Congress next year: six newly elected and three reelected or continuing. That is 3x the GOP total this Congress, and the most Democrats have had and largest share of their congressional delegation since 1807.

Newly elected (6)

  • James Talarico, Texas, U.S. Senate: Presbyterian Church (U.S.A.) seminarian.
  • Adam Hamilton, Kansas, U.S. Senate: United Methodist megachurch pastor.
  • Frederick Haynes III, Texas 30th District (Dallas): Baptist pastor of Friendship-West Baptist Church.
  • Sarah Trone Garriott, Iowa 3rd District: ordained Lutheran pastor, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America.
  • Lindsay James, Iowa 2nd District (Dubuque): Presbyterian minister and former college chaplain.
  • LaKesha Womack, North Carolina 14th District: ordained deacon in the African Methodist Episcopal Zion Church.

Reelected or continuing (3)

  • Emanuel Cleaver, Missouri 5th District (Kansas City): United Methodist minister; reelected.
  • Raphael Warnock, Georgia, U.S. Senate: senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta; continuing his current term.
  • Don Davis, North Carolina 1st District (eastern North Carolina): Presbyterian lay minister who attended the denomination's Commissioned Lay Pastor Program; reelected.

How did Dem movement change with a county's Christian share?

Counties grouped by the share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation, with cutoffs near every tenth of counties. Average Dem movement, weighted by 2024 votes; leaves out the 30 counties where members outnumber residents.

Christian shareDem movement
0–29%+11.0
29–34%+12.1
34–38%+12.9
38–43%+14.3
43–47%+14.6
47–51%+14.1
51–56%+17.4
56–62%+17.0
62–71%+15.3
71%++18.3

How did Dem movement change with a county's Protestant share?

Counties grouped by the share of the 2020 population belonging to a Protestant congregation, with cutoffs near every tenth of counties. Average Dem movement, weighted by 2024 votes; leaves out the 30 counties where members outnumber residents.

Protestant shareDem movement
0–12%+14.2
12–18%+12.4
18–22%+13.7
22–27%+13.8
27–32%+15.2
32–37%+17.9
37–43%+17.6
43–49%+16.7
49–58%+16.1
58%++16.4

What is "Dem movement"?

For each county, the Democratic margin (Democratic share minus Republican share of all votes cast) in the state's top 2026 race, minus Harris's margin over Trump in 2024. Positive numbers mean the county moved toward Democrats.

What does "Christian" mean in this data?

Belonging, not identity. The U.S. Religion Census counts people tied to a congregation: members, their children and regular attendees. It does not ask anyone their religion. So "Christian" means belonging to a Christian congregation, and it counts residents, not voters.

Where does the data come from?

2026 results: NBC News (AP data), unofficial, pulled Nov. 4–6, 2026. 2024 results: county presidential results compiled from state reports. Religion: the 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB), distributed by ARDA.

Can I download the full report and data?

Yes. The Report & Data page has the full interactive report and CSV files for all 3,151 county rows, 435 congressional districts, 50 states and every county–district pair, plus a ZIP of everything.

Key questions about evangelicals and the 2026 election

Short answers from the county data. Figures are weighted by 2024 votes unless noted.

Did evangelical counties move toward Democrats in 2026?

Yes, and by more than the average county. Every one of the 158 most evangelical counties (the top 5% by evangelical share, where evangelicals are 53.9% or more of residents) moved toward Democrats. Democrats gained 16.2 points there on Harris's 2024 margin, 12% more than the 14.5-point national average.

Most evangelicalMoved toward DemsDem movementvs. national avg.
Top 5%all 158+16.2+12%
Top 10%all 314+16.4+13%
Top 20%622 of 623+16.6+14%
All counties+14.5

Dem movement weighted by 2024 votes.

Did evangelical counties that voted for Trump move toward Democrats?

Yes. Trump carried 155 of the 158 most evangelical counties in 2024, and all 155 of them moved toward Democrats in 2026; 5 went from a Trump margin to a Democratic margin in the state's top race. Across the top 20% most evangelical counties, 594 of the 595 Trump counties moved toward Democrats, and 32 flipped.

Did majority-evangelical counties move toward Democrats?

Yes. In the 208 counties where evangelicals are a majority of residents, all 208 moved toward Democrats, with an average gain of 16.1 points, 11% more than the 14.5-point national average. They are in 20 states. (Leaves out counties where church members outnumber residents.)

Which highly evangelical counties moved most toward Democrats?

Among the most evangelical 5% of counties with at least 5,000 voters in 2024, compared with the 14.5-point national average:

  1. Mississippi County, AR: +24.7, 70% more than the national average (53.9% evangelical; R+31.6 in 2024, R+6.9 in 2026)
  2. Bristol city, VA: +23.9, 65% more than the national average (67.9% evangelical; R+39.7 in 2024, R+15.7 in 2026)
  3. Anderson County, SC: +23.9, 65% more than the national average (58.1% evangelical; R+47.4 in 2024, R+23.4 in 2026)
  4. Jones County, MS: +23.2, 60% more than the national average (57.4% evangelical; R+46.8 in 2024, R+23.6 in 2026)
  5. Mitchell County, NC: +23.2, 60% more than the national average (60.6% evangelical; R+55.9 in 2024, R+32.7 in 2026)

How did Dem movement change with a county's evangelical share?

Counties grouped by the share of the 2020 population belonging to an evangelical Protestant congregation, with cutoffs near every tenth of counties. Average Dem movement, weighted by 2024 votes, and how it compares with the 14.5-point national average; leaves out the counties where members outnumber residents.

Evangelical shareDem movementvs. national avg.
0–5.9%+13.7−6%
5.9–9.4%+13.2−9%
9.4–13%+12.7−12%
13–16%+13.0−10%
16–20%+15.3+6%
20–24%+15.5+7%
24–29%+18.2+26%
29–36%+17.7+22%
36–45%+16.6+14%
45%++16.4+13%

How did the most evangelical counties compare with the least evangelical?

Democrats gained 16.2 points in the most evangelical 5% of counties, 17% more than the 13.8 points in the least evangelical 5% (156 counties where evangelicals are 4.0% or less of residents). The most evangelical counties moved 12% more than the national average; the least evangelical moved 5% less. (Weighted by 2024 votes.)

Where are the most evangelical counties?

Of the 158 most evangelical counties, the most are in Oklahoma (24), Kentucky (24), Texas (21), Mississippi (17), Alabama (14), Arkansas (11).

What does "evangelical" mean in this data?

Belonging to a congregation in the evangelical Protestant tradition, as classified by the 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB), distributed by ARDA. It counts members, their children and regular attendees, as a share of each county's 2020 population. It does not ask anyone their religion, so it measures belonging, not identity, and it counts residents, not voters. Historically Black Protestant churches are counted separately, as Black Protestant.

How it's measured

Dem movement

For each county, the Democratic margin (Democratic share minus Republican share of all votes cast) in the state's top 2026 race, minus Harris's margin over Trump in 2024. Positive numbers mean the county moved toward Democrats.

Which 2026 race

U.S. Senate where a Democrat and a Republican ran, including the special elections in Ohio and Florida. U.S. Senate in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota, where the Republican's main opponent was an independent; the independent's votes count as the Democratic side. Total U.S. House vote in the 15 states with no Senate race. No governor's races are used. Each county's Race column shows which one it uses. Because candidates differ by state, compare counties within a state.

Districts

Each county is assigned to the current congressional districts its House votes were cast in, including the 2025–26 redrawn maps. "House vs. 2024" is the 2026 House margin minus Harris's 2024 margin within the district's current lines, from NBC News. A race counts only when a Democrat and a Republican ran and together took at least 80% of the vote. "Top race" averages the county numbers above, weighted by each county's House votes in the district.

Sources and caveats

2026 results: NBC News (AP data), unofficial, pulled Nov. 4–6, 2026; some counties were still counting. 2024 results: county presidential results compiled from state reports. Connecticut uses its eight historic counties, rebuilt from town results. Alaska uses State House districts. The District of Columbia is not included.

What the religion numbers measure: belonging, not identity

The U.S. Religion Census, distributed by ARDA, counts people tied to a congregation: members, their children and regular attendees, as each church, synagogue, mosque or temple reports them. It does not ask anyone their religion. So "Christian" here means belonging to a Christian congregation, and "No Congregation" includes many people who would call themselves Christian, or another faith, but don't belong to one. That is why No Congregation is much larger than the share of Americans who tell surveys they have no religion.

Religion

2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB), the county data distributed by ARDA. Each of about 370 religious bodies is grouped into a tradition: evangelical, mainline and Black Protestant, Catholic, Orthodox, Latter-day Saints, other Christian and other faiths. Each tradition is shown as a share of the county's 2020 population. The census counts residents, not voters, and it counts belonging to a congregation, not how people identify: No Congregation includes people who consider themselves Christian or another faith but don't belong to a congregation. It counts members where their church is, not where they live, so in a few small counties members outnumber residents; those counties are marked with an asterisk. Black Protestant bodies are undercounted in the 2020 census, and "No Congregation" counts people not tied to any counted congregation, which is not the same as survey "nones."