Full report and data
Snapshot exported November 5, 2026. Free to download.
2026 Dem Movement by Religion: the full report
The complete interactive report, with every tab: top counties, the map, religion of movers, top districts, counties by district and how it's measured. It's a single file that opens in any web browser, no internet needed.
Download the data
Every table behind the site, as CSV files that open in Excel, Google Sheets or any data tool.
What's in each file
Counties
- fips, county, st
- County FIPS code, name and state. Alaska rows are State House districts.
- race
- The state's top 2026 race used for the county.
- shift
- Dem movement: the 2026 Democratic margin in that race minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Positive means the county moved toward Democrats.
- rel_shift
- Movement vs. own state: the county's movement minus the state's overall shift.
- m24, m26
- 2024 Democratic presidential margin and 2026 Democratic margin, in points (negative means Republican).
- votes24, votes26, turnout_vs_2024
- Votes cast in 2024 and 2026, and 2026 votes as a percent of 2024.
- rank, rel_rank, st_rank, st_n, st_evang_rank
- National rank by Dem movement and by movement vs. own state; rank within the state, the number of counties in the state, and the county's rank within the state by evangelical share.
- group, rel_group
- Mover group (Top 20%, Middle, Bottom 10%) by Dem movement and by movement vs. own state.
- primary_cd, cds, n_cds
- The county's main congressional district, every district its House votes were cast in (with shares), and how many.
- christian, prot, evang, mainline, bprot, cath, orth, lds, othchr, otherfaith, unclaimed
- Share of the county's 2020 population belonging to a Christian, Protestant, evangelical Protestant, mainline Protestant, Black Protestant, Catholic, Orthodox, Latter-day Saint, other Christian or other-faith congregation, and No Congregation.
- adh, *_adh
- Share of the 2020 population belonging to any congregation (adh), and each tradition as a share of those adherents rather than of the whole population (*_adh).
- pop20, over_pop
- 2020 population, and "Y" where congregation members outnumber residents (marked with an asterisk on the site).
- note
- Data notes, such as "Not yet reported (0% in)".
Congressional districts
- cd, st
- District and state.
- house_shift
- House race vs. 2024 president: the 2026 House margin minus Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News baseline). Blank where only one party ran, in same-party top-two races, or where there is no 2024 baseline.
- est_shift
- Top race, from its counties: the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
- m26_house, m24_pres
- 2026 House Democratic margin and 2024 Democratic presidential margin in the district.
- contested, winner, winner_party, incumbent_won
- Whether a Democrat and a Republican ran and together took at least 80% of the vote, the winner and party, and whether the incumbent won.
- votes26, pct_in, n_counties, counties, candidates
- 2026 House votes, percent of the expected vote counted, and the district's counties and candidates.
- rel_*
- The district's religious makeup, built from its counties.
- note
- Data notes, such as "Not a D-vs-R race".
Counties by district
One row per county and district pair, with the share of the county's House votes in the district (share_of_county), the share of the district's House votes from the county (share_of_cd), and the county's movement and religion figures.
States
Each state's top 2026 race, its 2024 and 2026 Democratic margins, its overall movement, votes in each year and number of counties.
Sources
2026 results: NBC News (AP data), unofficial, pulled Nov. 4–6, 2026; some counties were still counting. 2024 results: county presidential results compiled from state reports. Religion: 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB), the county data distributed by ARDA. See how it's measured for the full method.
Using this data? Please credit Christians2026, a project of Evangelicals for A Better Future. Questions or corrections: contact us.