Which Alabama counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Talladega County: +24.3
- Tuscaloosa County: +24.2
- Franklin County: +23.5
- Limestone County: +22.5
- Calhoun County: +21.8
In Alabama, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +21.2 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+30.6 in 2024, R+9.4 in 2026), counting all votes together. 67 of 67 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +15.4 points.
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talladega County | +24.3 | R+33.8 | R+9.4 | 56.4% | 54.0% | 41.8% | 1.1% | 43.6% |
| Tuscaloosa County | +24.2 | R+20.4 | D+3.8 | 48.8% | 44.8% | 34.4% | 2.9% | 50.8% |
| Franklin County | +23.5 | R+73.3 | R+49.8 | 62.5% | 53.9% | 47.5% | 6.3% | 37.5% |
| Limestone County | +22.5 | R+43.9 | R+21.4 | 48.1% | 43.6% | 34.6% | 2.5% | 47.7% |
| Calhoun County | +21.8 | R+44.8 | R+22.9 | 71.5% | 67.4% | 56.6% | 2.9% | 28.2% |
| Colbert County | +21.7 | R+46.4 | R+24.7 | 60.3% | 57.6% | 44.2% | 2.1% | 39.7% |
| DeKalb County | +21.5 | R+73.9 | R+52.4 | 63.2% | 53.6% | 48.4% | 8.1% | 36.8% |
| Shelby County | +21.3 | R+40.8 | R+19.6 | 43.3% | 38.6% | 30.2% | 3.5% | 55.9% |
| Jefferson County | +21.1 | D+10.4 | D+31.6 | 77.6% | 70.0% | 46.0% | 6.0% | 20.1% |
| Mobile County | +20.5 | R+16.4 | D+4.0 | 71.5% | 59.6% | 41.7% | 10.7% | 27.0% |
| Lauderdale County | +20.3 | R+51.5 | R+31.2 | 66.1% | 63.5% | 53.1% | 1.6% | 33.7% |
| Autauga County | +20.2 | R+46.3 | R+26.1 | 51.4% | 48.4% | 40.8% | 1.6% | 48.6% |
| Etowah County | +20.1 | R+55.7 | R+35.6 | 80.7% | 74.0% | 64.5% | 4.9% | 18.9% |
| Morgan County | +20.0 | R+52.6 | R+32.5 | 68.7% | 61.6% | 52.8% | 5.7% | 31.0% |
| Lawrence County | +19.9 | R+62.3 | R+42.4 | 69.6% | 69.1% | 59.5% | 0.5% | 30.4% |
| St. Clair County | +19.5 | R+64.1 | R+44.7 | 52.1% | 49.9% | 44.8% | 1.8% | 47.9% |
| Clarke County | +19.3 | R+17.1 | D+2.2 | 75.7% | 73.7% | 53.9% | 1.0% | 24.3% |
| Madison County | +18.9 | R+9.0 | D+9.9 | 62.5% | 51.5% | 35.7% | 8.8% | 36.1% |
| Lee County | +18.7 | R+27.8 | R+9.2 | 35.4% | 30.1% | 17.9% | 3.8% | 64.2% |
| Russell County | +18.5 | D+1.7 | D+20.2 | 61.0% | 57.7% | 39.5% | 1.5% | 39.0% |
| Bibb County | +18.3 | R+64.4 | R+46.1 | 48.8% | 48.8% | 44.0% | 0.0% | 51.2% |
| Marshall County | +18.3 | R+71.7 | R+53.4 | 64.6% | 55.3% | 48.0% | 8.1% | 35.4% |
| Pike County | +17.0 | R+25.2 | R+8.2 | 48.8% | 46.3% | 31.3% | 1.0% | 51.2% |
| Chambers County | +16.9 | R+23.2 | R+6.3 | 55.7% | 52.5% | 31.0% | 0.8% | 44.3% |
| Jackson County | +16.8 | R+71.5 | R+54.7 | 53.9% | 48.1% | 41.4% | 4.5% | 46.1% |
| Houston County | +16.6 | R+47.8 | R+31.2 | 82.2% | 75.4% | 59.5% | 4.0% | 15.8% |
| Coosa County | +16.6 | R+43.3 | R+26.7 | 47.2% | 45.1% | 38.6% | 0.0% | 52.8% |
| Chilton County | +16.6 | R+72.1 | R+55.5 | 73.7% | 70.0% | 63.4% | 2.0% | 26.3% |
| Hale County | +16.4 | D+6.8 | D+23.2 | 53.9% | 52.0% | 28.3% | 0.9% | 46.1% |
| Elmore County | +16.0 | R+52.1 | R+36.1 | 46.2% | 43.0% | 35.1% | 1.3% | 53.8% |
| Blount County | +15.8 | R+81.0 | R+65.2 | 57.3% | 52.5% | 47.6% | 3.5% | 42.7% |
| Montgomery County | +15.7 | D+30.7 | D+46.5 | 71.7% | 65.3% | 34.9% | 4.7% | 26.2% |
| Escambia County | +15.4 | R+46.4 | R+30.9 | 65.5% | 61.1% | 53.9% | 0.9% | 34.5% |
| Marengo County | +15.4 | R+3.8 | D+11.7 | 87.1% | 81.1% | 64.5% | 2.1% | 12.8% |
| Butler County | +15.2 | R+22.7 | R+7.5 | 61.1% | 59.8% | 49.1% | 0.5% | 38.9% |
| Dale County | +15.1 | R+52.3 | R+37.2 | 49.2% | 46.3% | 36.1% | 0.7% | 49.6% |
| Walker County | +14.8 | R+71.8 | R+57.0 | 66.6% | 62.7% | 56.3% | 2.5% | 33.4% |
| Barbour County | +14.8 | R+14.7 | D+0.1 | 68.7% | 57.0% | 37.1% | 9.3% | 31.3% |
| Coffee County | +14.8 | R+57.9 | R+43.1 | 69.3% | 63.3% | 54.8% | 4.5% | 30.7% |
| Tallapoosa County | +14.1 | R+49.6 | R+35.5 | 73.1% | 69.1% | 53.3% | 2.1% | 26.9% |
| Baldwin County | +13.8 | R+58.2 | R+44.4 | 53.6% | 38.5% | 29.0% | 13.6% | 46.3% |
| Randolph County | +13.5 | R+64.8 | R+51.4 | 49.6% | 48.3% | 37.5% | 0.5% | 50.4% |
| Choctaw County | +13.4 | R+23.9 | R+10.5 | 61.5% | 58.6% | 42.0% | 0.5% | 38.5% |
| Conecuh County | +13.0 | R+13.9 | R+0.9 | 43.5% | 42.3% | 31.6% | 0.0% | 56.5% |
| Crenshaw County | +12.7 | R+54.7 | R+42.0 | 60.9% | 58.2% | 50.9% | 0.0% | 39.0% |
| Dallas County | +12.6 | D+32.5 | D+45.1 | 54.1% | 50.8% | 35.5% | 1.2% | 44.9% |
| Monroe County | +12.3 | R+23.1 | R+10.8 | 65.7% | 63.0% | 42.8% | 0.7% | 34.3% |
| Sumter County | +12.3 | D+41.2 | D+53.5 | 40.6% | 39.0% | 25.2% | 0.4% | 59.4% |
| Cullman County | +12.0 | R+80.5 | R+68.5 | 62.6% | 58.1% | 54.4% | 3.6% | 37.4% |
| Pickens County | +11.9 | R+23.3 | R+11.4 | 67.7% | 67.1% | 48.6% | 0.6% | 30.4% |
| Marion County | +11.6 | R+81.7 | R+70.1 | 56.0% | 53.3% | 49.5% | 1.9% | 44.0% |
| Greene County | +11.4 | D+55.7 | D+67.1 | 27.3% | 23.6% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 72.4% |
| Covington County | +11.3 | R+72.4 | R+61.1 | 57.8% | 55.6% | 49.1% | 1.0% | 42.2% |
| Henry County | +11.3 | R+50.8 | R+39.5 | 61.5% | 61.5% | 44.8% | 0.0% | 38.5% |
| Winston County | +11.1 | R+83.6 | R+72.5 | 58.2% | 56.3% | 52.1% | 0.9% | 41.8% |
| Clay County | +10.9 | R+70.2 | R+59.3 | 68.7% | 66.6% | 53.7% | 1.2% | 31.3% |
| Washington County | +10.6 | R+55.4 | R+44.8 | 65.5% | 65.4% | 55.2% | 0.1% | 34.5% |
| Perry County | +10.6 | D+42.7 | D+53.3 | 54.9% | 54.9% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 45.1% |
| Cleburne County | +10.0 | R+83.6 | R+73.6 | 78.6% | 78.6% | 73.0% | 0.0% | 21.4% |
| Fayette County | +9.5 | R+72.0 | R+62.5 | 60.3% | 59.2% | 50.8% | 0.5% | 39.7% |
| Lamar County | +9.1 | R+76.0 | R+66.9 | 69.6% | 69.6% | 58.3% | 0.0% | 30.4% |
| Cherokee County | +9.1 | R+75.5 | R+66.4 | 50.3% | 49.3% | 42.2% | 0.1% | 49.7% |
| Geneva County | +8.9 | R+77.0 | R+68.1 | 57.6% | 54.8% | 49.0% | 0.2% | 42.3% |
| Lowndes County | +8.8 | D+37.3 | D+46.1 | 51.7% | 50.5% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 48.3% |
| Bullock County | +7.6 | D+45.8 | D+53.4 | 46.8% | 43.6% | 19.8% | 1.0% | 52.7% |
| Macon County | +7.5 | D+56.3 | D+63.8 | 57.8% | 56.5% | 16.1% | 0.4% | 40.4% |
| Wilcox County | +7.1 | D+31.5 | D+38.5 | 53.1% | 49.8% | 30.6% | 0.1% | 46.9% |
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | Carl (R) | +18.2 | +17.4 | R+36.4 | R+18.1 | 64.1% | 37.9% | 10.9% |
| AL-02 | Figures (D) | +22.0 | +15.0 | R+14.5 | D+7.5 | 65.7% | 40.5% | 3.1% |
| AL-03 | Rogers (R) | +19.1 | +18.8 | R+47.0 | R+27.9 | 57.6% | 42.7% | 2.6% |
| AL-04 | Aderholt (R) | +17.2 | +17.8 | R+67.0 | R+49.8 | 60.8% | 48.4% | 3.8% |
| AL-05 | Strong (R) | +23.0 | +19.5 | R+29.5 | R+6.5 | 61.1% | 39.5% | 6.7% |
| AL-06 | Palmer (R) | +19.9 | +20.4 | R+34.8 | R+14.9 | 60.9% | 40.4% | 4.1% |
| AL-07 | Sewell (D) | +20.8 | +18.9 | D+18.0 | D+38.8 | 67.8% | 42.7% | 3.8% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.