Which Arizona counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Apache County: +27.1
- Santa Cruz County: +25.8
- Greenlee County: +23.6
- Yuma County: +21.4
- Coconino County: +19.5
Arizona: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Arizona move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Arizona, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. House race shifted +16.0 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+5.5 in 2024, D+10.4 in 2026), counting all votes together. 15 of 15 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +14.7 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Arizona
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Arizona counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Santa Cruz County: 88.1% Christian, Dem movement +25.8
- Graham County: 45.6% Christian, Dem movement +11.1
- Cochise County: 45.2% Christian, Dem movement +8.7
- Navajo County: 44.9% Christian, Dem movement +18.1
- Maricopa County: 44.0% Christian, Dem movement +18.2
Arizona counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. House; no Senate race) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apache County | +27.1 | D+19.0 | D+46.1 | 38.0% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 17.5% | 61.5% |
| Santa Cruz County | +25.8 | D+18.6 | D+44.5 | 88.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 78.7% | 11.8% |
| Greenlee County | +23.6 | R+40.9 | R+17.3 | 29.0% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 8.6% | 71.0% |
| Yuma County | +21.4 | R+20.4 | D+1.0 | 34.4% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 20.9% | 65.0% |
| Coconino County | +19.5 | D+19.9 | D+39.4 | 31.0% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 11.9% | 67.6% |
| Maricopa County | +18.2 | R+3.5 | D+14.7 | 44.0% | 13.4% | 11.5% | 23.1% | 52.8% |
| Navajo County | +18.1 | R+17.2 | D+0.9 | 44.9% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 54.9% |
| Pinal County | +14.7 | R+22.1 | R+7.4 | 39.1% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 21.6% | 59.9% |
| Gila County | +11.3 | R+37.6 | R+26.3 | 33.0% | 14.1% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 66.9% |
| Graham County | +11.1 | R+48.1 | R+37.0 | 45.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 54.3% |
| Yavapai County | +9.9 | R+33.9 | R+24.0 | 38.2% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 18.2% | 58.4% |
| Pima County | +9.8 | D+15.2 | D+24.9 | 36.5% | 13.4% | 10.4% | 18.9% | 61.2% |
| Cochise County | +8.7 | R+23.1 | R+14.4 | 45.2% | 15.7% | 12.6% | 19.0% | 54.6% |
| La Paz County | +8.6 | R+44.2 | R+35.6 | 30.5% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 69.4% |
| Mohave County | +7.6 | R+55.8 | R+48.2 | 24.7% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 74.4% |
Arizona congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | — | +10.3 | +18.2 | R+3.1 | D+7.2 | 44.0% | 11.5% | 23.1% |
| AZ-02 | — | — | +14.9 | — | R+0.3 | 37.7% | 9.2% | 15.8% |
| AZ-03 | Ansari (D) | — | +18.2 | — | D+86.4 | 44.0% | 11.5% | 23.1% |
| AZ-04 | Stanton (D) | +20.2 | +18.2 | D+6.8 | D+26.9 | 44.0% | 11.5% | 23.1% |
| AZ-05 | — | — | +17.6 | — | R+2.2 | 43.2% | 10.5% | 22.8% |
| AZ-06 | — | — | +10.3 | — | D+8.2 | 37.9% | 10.2% | 18.7% |
| AZ-07 | Grijalva (D) | — | +13.2 | — | D+43.0 | 41.8% | 10.0% | 24.4% |
| AZ-08 | — | +14.2 | +18.2 | R+16.5 | R+2.2 | 44.0% | 11.5% | 23.1% |
| AZ-09 | Gosar (R) | — | +15.2 | — | R+15.6 | 37.5% | 10.4% | 18.9% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.