Which Arkansas counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Sevier County: +31.3
- Mississippi County: +24.7
- Washington County: +24.2
- Craighead County: +23.9
- Franklin County: +23.3
Arkansas: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Arkansas move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Arkansas, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +18.8 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+30.6 in 2024, R+11.8 in 2026), counting all votes together. 75 of 75 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +15.5 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Arkansas
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Arkansas counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Calhoun County: 91.2% Christian, Dem movement +16.0
- Ashley County: 87.5% Christian, Dem movement +13.2
- Columbia County: 82.7% Christian, Dem movement +14.3
- Union County: 82.2% Christian, Dem movement +14.0
- Drew County: 80.4% Christian, Dem movement +15.2
Arkansas counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevier County | +31.3 | R+61.7 | R+30.4 | 70.8% | 49.2% | 39.3% | 18.9% | 29.2% |
| Mississippi County | +24.7 | R+31.6 | R+6.9 | 73.4% | 71.1% | 53.9% | 0.7% | 26.6% |
| Washington County | +24.2 | R+6.7 | D+17.5 | 58.2% | 40.8% | 31.8% | 14.4% | 40.7% |
| Craighead County | +23.9 | R+37.4 | R+13.6 | 60.1% | 55.1% | 45.5% | 3.5% | 39.6% |
| Franklin County | +23.3 | R+62.4 | R+39.1 | 47.4% | 40.9% | 33.3% | 5.2% | 52.6% |
| Johnson County | +21.2 | R+51.4 | R+30.3 | 49.2% | 44.4% | 40.3% | 3.9% | 50.8% |
| Cross County | +21.0 | R+47.6 | R+26.6 | 58.0% | 56.3% | 41.4% | 1.8% | 42.0% |
| Benton County | +20.9 | R+27.0 | R+6.1 | 48.3% | 33.5% | 28.8% | 10.6% | 51.2% |
| Yell County | +20.8 | R+60.7 | R+39.9 | 43.5% | 37.1% | 31.0% | 3.2% | 56.5% |
| Madison County | +20.6 | R+58.6 | R+38.0 | 32.2% | 28.0% | 24.4% | 0.7% | 67.7% |
| Poinsett County | +20.1 | R+63.5 | R+43.4 | 74.4% | 73.3% | 65.3% | 0.6% | 25.6% |
| Faulkner County | +19.9 | R+32.3 | R+12.4 | 54.7% | 48.8% | 32.7% | 4.5% | 44.9% |
| Greene County | +19.8 | R+61.2 | R+41.4 | 46.7% | 45.0% | 40.3% | 0.5% | 53.3% |
| Searcy County | +19.4 | R+72.2 | R+52.8 | 38.9% | 37.0% | 34.0% | 0.0% | 61.1% |
| Jackson County | +18.9 | R+48.7 | R+29.9 | 53.0% | 51.9% | 42.9% | 0.3% | 47.0% |
| Carroll County | +18.5 | R+31.7 | R+13.2 | 43.4% | 38.3% | 34.4% | 3.5% | 56.2% |
| Sebastian County | +18.3 | R+37.5 | R+19.3 | 60.7% | 49.1% | 41.9% | 9.5% | 37.3% |
| Randolph County | +18.0 | R+63.7 | R+45.7 | 57.2% | 51.5% | 47.4% | 3.7% | 42.8% |
| Logan County | +18.0 | R+62.2 | R+44.2 | 70.5% | 63.2% | 57.8% | 7.3% | 29.5% |
| Pope County | +17.8 | R+52.2 | R+34.4 | 50.2% | 46.2% | 38.7% | 2.5% | 49.5% |
| Grant County | +17.6 | R+68.9 | R+51.3 | 50.1% | 48.8% | 28.2% | 0.4% | 49.9% |
| Desha County | +17.1 | R+4.8 | D+12.3 | 66.4% | 64.6% | 44.2% | 1.0% | 33.3% |
| Lonoke County | +17.0 | R+53.7 | R+36.6 | 41.4% | 39.4% | 30.6% | 0.3% | 58.1% |
| Hempstead County | +17.0 | R+39.7 | R+22.7 | 63.2% | 56.9% | 31.2% | 2.4% | 36.8% |
| Saline County | +16.9 | R+40.1 | R+23.2 | 36.7% | 34.5% | 25.9% | 1.6% | 63.3% |
| Arkansas County | +16.7 | R+44.1 | R+27.4 | 67.2% | 65.0% | 50.9% | 1.5% | 32.6% |
| Howard County | +16.5 | R+46.7 | R+30.2 | 60.9% | 58.8% | 45.5% | 2.1% | 39.1% |
| Pike County | +16.5 | R+73.1 | R+56.6 | 57.0% | 49.9% | 42.0% | 1.5% | 43.0% |
| Crittenden County | +16.4 | D+2.3 | D+18.7 | 65.8% | 63.2% | 38.1% | 0.9% | 34.1% |
| Independence County | +16.3 | R+59.5 | R+43.2 | 73.1% | 68.6% | 60.1% | 2.0% | 26.9% |
| Lawrence County | +16.3 | R+64.0 | R+47.7 | 56.1% | 55.1% | 42.3% | 0.3% | 43.9% |
| Crawford County | +16.1 | R+58.2 | R+42.0 | 52.7% | 46.8% | 41.3% | 3.5% | 47.2% |
| Hot Spring County | +16.1 | R+52.2 | R+36.0 | 50.6% | 49.7% | 34.2% | 0.4% | 49.4% |
| Calhoun County | +16.0 | R+61.9 | R+45.9 | 91.2% | 83.7% | 60.8% | 0.0% | 8.8% |
| Bradley County | +15.9 | R+39.0 | R+23.1 | 77.3% | 71.9% | 45.5% | 3.2% | 22.7% |
| Fulton County | +15.7 | R+62.1 | R+46.4 | 42.5% | 42.5% | 38.6% | 0.0% | 57.5% |
| Boone County | +15.6 | R+65.0 | R+49.4 | 65.7% | 61.8% | 55.2% | 2.2% | 34.3% |
| Lincoln County | +15.5 | R+50.1 | R+34.6 | 40.1% | 40.0% | 32.4% | 0.1% | 59.9% |
| Newton County | +15.4 | R+64.2 | R+48.8 | 25.7% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 74.2% |
| White County | +15.3 | R+61.2 | R+45.9 | 66.6% | 62.8% | 54.6% | 1.8% | 33.4% |
| Perry County | +15.3 | R+57.5 | R+42.2 | 47.5% | 40.5% | 33.7% | 5.6% | 52.5% |
| Chicot County | +15.2 | D+4.0 | D+19.1 | 55.7% | 51.3% | 39.1% | 3.1% | 44.3% |
| Drew County | +15.2 | R+33.8 | R+18.7 | 80.4% | 76.1% | 51.2% | 2.1% | 19.6% |
| Lee County | +15.1 | D+3.5 | D+18.7 | 75.8% | 75.6% | 60.3% | 0.2% | 24.2% |
| Clay County | +14.9 | R+61.6 | R+46.7 | 51.9% | 49.0% | 43.8% | 1.3% | 48.1% |
| Clark County | +14.7 | R+20.5 | R+5.8 | 78.7% | 74.0% | 59.9% | 1.2% | 21.2% |
| Columbia County | +14.3 | R+36.5 | R+22.2 | 82.7% | 79.9% | 47.7% | 1.3% | 17.3% |
| Union County | +14.0 | R+33.5 | R+19.5 | 82.2% | 77.8% | 49.6% | 2.9% | 17.7% |
| Lafayette County | +14.0 | R+38.3 | R+24.4 | 55.0% | 55.0% | 31.8% | 0.0% | 45.0% |
| Monroe County | +13.7 | R+15.7 | R+2.0 | 70.0% | 68.3% | 44.7% | 0.6% | 30.0% |
| Woodruff County | +13.6 | R+32.5 | R+18.9 | 42.5% | 42.0% | 32.7% | 0.5% | 56.9% |
| Garland County | +13.3 | R+36.2 | R+23.0 | 50.7% | 43.2% | 32.5% | 5.2% | 48.9% |
| Ashley County | +13.2 | R+48.0 | R+34.8 | 87.5% | 86.4% | 63.2% | 0.3% | 12.5% |
| Prairie County | +13.1 | R+65.8 | R+52.6 | 48.5% | 48.4% | 35.9% | 0.1% | 51.5% |
| Conway County | +13.1 | R+40.3 | R+27.2 | 51.2% | 41.1% | 27.2% | 8.4% | 48.7% |
| Pulaski County | +13.1 | D+22.1 | D+35.2 | 61.1% | 52.2% | 34.3% | 7.0% | 37.8% |
| Polk County | +12.8 | R+70.5 | R+57.6 | 53.9% | 48.8% | 44.4% | 2.4% | 46.1% |
| Stone County | +12.7 | R+61.7 | R+49.0 | 51.4% | 47.6% | 34.4% | 0.8% | 48.6% |
| Miller County | +12.4 | R+51.1 | R+38.7 | 62.7% | 56.5% | 45.1% | 5.2% | 37.3% |
| Van Buren County | +12.1 | R+60.2 | R+48.1 | 53.0% | 47.8% | 39.4% | 2.3% | 47.0% |
| Izard County | +12.1 | R+65.9 | R+53.8 | 49.4% | 48.0% | 45.1% | 0.6% | 50.5% |
| Sharp County | +11.9 | R+62.7 | R+50.7 | 65.5% | 60.4% | 50.7% | 1.5% | 34.5% |
| St. Francis County | +11.8 | D+0.7 | D+12.6 | 58.0% | 56.7% | 39.6% | 0.3% | 42.0% |
| Little River County | +11.7 | R+54.3 | R+42.6 | 67.0% | 64.7% | 51.8% | 0.9% | 33.0% |
| Nevada County | +11.6 | R+39.7 | R+28.1 | 63.1% | 63.1% | 24.1% | 0.0% | 36.9% |
| Cleveland County | +10.9 | R+67.6 | R+56.7 | 64.4% | 64.4% | 39.3% | 0.0% | 35.5% |
| Marion County | +10.7 | R+60.2 | R+49.5 | 33.5% | 30.4% | 26.2% | 2.0% | 66.5% |
| Montgomery County | +10.7 | R+63.2 | R+52.5 | 44.4% | 42.8% | 38.2% | 0.5% | 55.6% |
| Dallas County | +10.7 | R+29.4 | R+18.8 | 67.1% | 64.8% | 38.6% | 0.4% | 32.9% |
| Ouachita County* | +10.6 | R+19.1 | R+8.4 | 108.1% | 106.7% | 72.9% | 0.6% | -8.1% |
| Scott County | +10.4 | R+73.5 | R+63.1 | 52.4% | 47.6% | 46.2% | 2.3% | 44.5% |
| Baxter County | +10.3 | R+56.9 | R+46.5 | 48.8% | 42.2% | 38.5% | 4.5% | 51.1% |
| Phillips County | +10.2 | D+13.3 | D+23.5 | 55.4% | 51.5% | 31.3% | 0.5% | 44.6% |
| Cleburne County | +10.0 | R+67.9 | R+58.0 | 63.4% | 60.0% | 52.2% | 1.5% | 36.6% |
| Jefferson County | +9.0 | D+20.1 | D+29.0 | 69.2% | 67.5% | 41.5% | 0.4% | 30.5% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 1 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
Arkansas congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AR-01 | Crawford (R) | +11.7 | +16.9 | R+46.1 | R+34.5 | 56.2% | 42.7% | 1.7% |
| AR-02 | Hill (R) | +14.2 | +14.9 | R+15.9 | R+1.8 | 55.8% | 35.0% | 4.9% |
| AR-03 | Womack (R) | +12.2 | +21.2 | R+25.6 | R+13.4 | 52.8% | 32.4% | 10.7% |
| AR-04 | Westerman (R) | +9.7 | +14.8 | R+40.7 | R+31.0 | 62.4% | 41.9% | 3.1% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.