In California, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. House race shifted +10.0 points from Harris's 2024 margin (D+15.5 in 2024, D+25.5 in 2026), counting all votes together. 53 of 54 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +8.5 points.
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. House; no Senate race) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imperial County | +36.1 | R+0.9 | D+35.2 | 86.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 75.4% | 13.7% |
| San Joaquin County | +21.5 | D+1.9 | D+23.4 | 35.5% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 21.5% | 61.9% |
| Riverside County | +20.4 | D+4.1 | D+24.5 | 42.7% | 11.5% | 9.5% | 27.0% | 55.8% |
| San Bernardino County | +19.9 | R+2.1 | D+17.8 | 40.2% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 22.9% | 57.6% |
| Merced County | +19.2 | R+4.4 | D+14.9 | 44.9% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 33.9% | 54.9% |
| Kern County | +19.2 | R+21.1 | R+1.9 | 44.8% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 26.0% | 54.4% |
| San Francisco County | +18.9 | D+39.6 | D+58.4 | 30.2% | 9.3% | 3.5% | 18.8% | 64.9% |
| Madera County | +17.2 | R+20.8 | R+3.6 | 43.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 29.8% | 55.6% |
| Monterey County | +17.1 | D+29.9 | D+46.9 | 56.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 46.4% | 40.3% |
| Tulare County | +16.1 | R+20.7 | R+4.6 | 52.5% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 36.4% | 46.6% |
| Kings County | +15.6 | R+23.0 | R+7.4 | 44.9% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 34.9% | 54.8% |
| Stanislaus County | +15.5 | R+11.0 | D+4.5 | 37.8% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 21.0% | 61.3% |
| Del Norte County | +15.4 | R+16.4 | R+1.0 | 13.9% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 85.9% |
| Los Angeles County | +13.2 | D+29.3 | D+42.6 | 47.2% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 31.5% | 49.0% |
| Lake County | +13.2 | R+0.3 | D+12.9 | 28.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 18.2% | 69.6% |
| Fresno County | +12.7 | R+4.4 | D+8.3 | 40.8% | 14.3% | 12.3% | 22.2% | 57.1% |
| Mendocino County | +12.7 | D+26.8 | D+39.5 | 28.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 17.4% | 60.0% |
| Shasta County | +11.1 | R+36.5 | R+25.4 | 38.4% | 25.6% | 24.4% | 7.1% | 61.5% |
| Amador County | +10.8 | R+27.8 | R+17.0 | 27.4% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 72.6% |
| Trinity County | +10.4 | R+9.4 | D+1.0 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 84.0% |
| Siskiyou County | +9.8 | R+19.2 | R+9.4 | 45.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 27.6% | 52.6% |
| Tuolumne County | +9.7 | R+21.9 | R+12.2 | 23.3% | 16.7% | 15.8% | 3.0% | 76.0% |
| San Benito County | +9.5 | D+12.6 | D+22.1 | 73.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 62.8% | 26.3% |
| Solano County | +9.4 | D+23.0 | D+32.4 | 31.9% | 12.1% | 9.3% | 16.0% | 67.7% |
| Ventura County | +9.2 | D+15.1 | D+24.3 | 45.9% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 29.6% | 48.9% |
| Inyo County | +8.8 | R+3.0 | D+5.8 | 30.7% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 17.4% | 69.2% |
| Orange County | +8.6 | D+3.5 | D+12.1 | 47.0% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 29.9% | 50.5% |
| El Dorado County | +8.5 | D+5.5 | D+14.0 | 29.7% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 69.8% |
| San Luis Obispo County | +8.3 | D+10.9 | D+19.2 | 37.2% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 20.3% | 61.4% |
| Santa Cruz County | +8.1 | D+54.4 | D+62.5 | 35.8% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 25.8% | 60.5% |
| San Diego County | +8.1 | D+16.8 | D+24.8 | 38.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 22.9% | 58.6% |
| Modoc County | +7.9 | R+46.7 | R+38.8 | 32.9% | 12.5% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 66.9% |
| Sonoma County | +7.6 | D+47.9 | D+55.5 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 23.5% | 63.6% |
| Contra Costa County | +7.5 | D+38.0 | D+45.4 | 38.8% | 8.5% | 5.4% | 26.8% | 58.4% |
| Calaveras County | +7.4 | R+28.1 | R+20.7 | 17.2% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 82.7% |
| Humboldt County | +7.2 | D+28.4 | D+35.5 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 80.8% |
| Sacramento County | +6.7 | D+18.0 | D+24.7 | 35.2% | 13.2% | 10.0% | 17.7% | 60.8% |
| Santa Barbara County | +6.4 | D+26.7 | D+33.1 | 43.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 32.8% | 53.6% |
| Mariposa County | +6.3 | R+21.1 | R+14.8 | 28.6% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 71.2% |
| Alpine County | +5.9 | D+32.0 | D+37.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Lassen County | +5.6 | R+54.0 | R+48.5 | 25.7% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 12.1% | 74.2% |
| Nevada County | +5.1 | D+12.2 | D+17.3 | 24.4% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 7.7% | 71.5% |
| Tehama County | +5.0 | R+41.8 | R+36.8 | 30.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 16.3% | 69.6% |
| Alameda County | +4.8 | D+36.8 | D+41.6 | 33.9% | 11.6% | 7.1% | 19.2% | 59.0% |
| Santa Clara County | +4.4 | D+40.0 | D+44.3 | 39.0% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 26.0% | 54.5% |
| Yolo County | +4.3 | D+53.8 | D+58.1 | 31.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 21.8% | 65.2% |
| San Mateo County | +4.2 | D+50.3 | D+54.5 | 30.3% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 21.1% | 66.4% |
| Mono County | +3.5 | D+20.2 | D+23.8 | 16.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 8.8% | 83.6% |
| Plumas County | +1.9 | R+16.9 | R+15.1 | 38.4% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 18.9% | 61.6% |
| Sierra County | +1.4 | R+24.2 | R+22.8 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 80.8% |
| Butte County | +1.1 | R+3.1 | R+2.0 | 28.5% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 71.0% |
| Placer County | +1.1 | R+13.2 | R+12.2 | 37.2% | 17.2% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 61.4% |
| Marin County | +0.7 | D+63.9 | D+64.6 | 31.3% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 23.4% | 62.9% |
| Glenn County | −0.2 | R+34.9 | R+35.1 | 46.7% | 13.2% | 8.1% | 28.9% | 53.2% |
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-01 | McGuire (D) | — | +5.2 | — | D+14.1 | 31.1% | 7.0% | 17.2% |
| CA-02 | Huffman (D) | — | +6.1 | — | D+33.1 | 31.1% | 8.4% | 16.8% |
| CA-03 | Bera (D) | — | +5.2 | — | D+14.1 | 33.4% | 11.5% | 14.7% |
| CA-04 | — | — | +4.9 | — | — | 35.5% | 8.5% | 21.4% |
| CA-05 | McClintock (R) | — | +12.8 | — | R+12.4 | 34.0% | 10.7% | 17.9% |
| CA-06 | Pan (D) | — | +4.1 | — | — | 35.8% | 12.1% | 16.0% |
| CA-07 | — | — | +8.2 | — | — | 33.6% | 9.4% | 17.1% |
| CA-08 | Garamendi (D) | — | +9.0 | — | D+44.7 | 34.4% | 7.8% | 20.0% |
| CA-09 | Harder (D) | — | +17.3 | — | D+31.6 | 36.5% | 7.8% | 23.1% |
| CA-10 | DeSaulnier (D) | — | +7.3 | — | D+38.1 | 38.4% | 5.5% | 26.2% |
| CA-11 | — | — | +18.9 | — | — | 30.2% | 3.5% | 18.8% |
| CA-12 | Simon (D) | — | +4.8 | — | — | 33.9% | 7.1% | 19.2% |
| CA-13 | Gray (D) | — | +18.1 | — | D+22.6 | 40.9% | 8.9% | 27.2% |
| CA-14 | — | — | +4.8 | — | — | 33.9% | 7.1% | 19.2% |
| CA-15 | Mullin (D) | — | +6.2 | — | D+54.9 | 30.3% | 3.5% | 20.8% |
| CA-16 | Liccardo (D) | — | +4.3 | — | D+51.8 | 37.1% | 7.4% | 24.9% |
| CA-17 | Khanna (D) | — | +4.4 | — | D+41.0 | 38.3% | 8.3% | 25.0% |
| CA-18 | Lofgren (D) | — | +9.4 | — | D+43.3 | 46.9% | 6.9% | 35.2% |
| CA-19 | Panetta (D) | — | +9.4 | — | D+44.0 | 42.1% | 6.7% | 30.4% |
| CA-20 | Fong (R) | — | +17.3 | — | R+25.2 | 46.4% | 11.3% | 29.5% |
| CA-21 | Costa (D) | — | +13.2 | — | D+24.4 | 42.6% | 12.0% | 24.4% |
| CA-22 | Villegas (D) | — | +17.3 | — | D+32.8 | 45.1% | 12.0% | 27.4% |
| CA-23 | — | — | +19.8 | — | R+2.6 | 40.6% | 10.9% | 23.3% |
| CA-24 | Carbajal (D) | — | +7.5 | — | D+31.7 | 42.3% | 7.3% | 28.9% |
| CA-25 | Ruiz (D) | — | +23.0 | — | D+28.8 | 50.0% | 8.9% | 35.1% |
| CA-26 | Irwin (D) | — | +10.4 | — | D+23.4 | 46.3% | 9.2% | 30.2% |
| CA-27 | Whitesides (D) | — | +13.2 | — | D+24.2 | 47.2% | 8.6% | 31.5% |
| CA-28 | Chu (D) | — | +14.4 | — | D+37.9 | 46.0% | 9.0% | 30.0% |
| CA-29 | Rivas (D) | — | +13.2 | — | — | 47.2% | 8.6% | 31.5% |
| CA-30 | Friedman (D) | — | +13.2 | — | D+51.8 | 47.2% | 8.6% | 31.5% |
| CA-31 | Cisneros (D) | — | +14.0 | — | D+28.4 | 46.4% | 8.9% | 30.5% |
| CA-32 | Sherman (D) | — | +12.6 | — | D+32.7 | 47.0% | 8.7% | 31.2% |
| CA-33 | Aguilar (D) | — | +19.9 | — | D+35.3 | 40.2% | 11.0% | 22.9% |
| CA-34 | Gonzales-Torres (D) | — | +13.2 | — | — | 47.2% | 8.6% | 31.5% |
| CA-35 | Torres (D) | — | +18.5 | — | D+31.5 | 42.1% | 10.2% | 25.4% |
| CA-36 | Lieu (D) | — | +13.2 | — | D+42.6 | 47.2% | 8.6% | 31.5% |
| CA-37 | Kamlager-Dove (D) | — | +13.2 | — | — | 47.2% | 8.6% | 31.5% |
| CA-38 | Solis (D) | — | +12.1 | — | D+31.3 | 47.2% | 9.4% | 31.1% |
| CA-39 | Takano (D) | — | +20.4 | — | D+30.7 | 42.7% | 9.5% | 27.0% |
| CA-40 | — | — | +14.5 | — | — | 44.8% | 10.6% | 28.4% |
| CA-41 | Sánchez (D) | — | +12.3 | — | D+31.2 | 47.2% | 9.2% | 31.2% |
| CA-42 | Garcia (D) | — | +10.4 | — | D+20.2 | 47.1% | 10.5% | 30.5% |
| CA-43 | Waters (D) | — | +13.2 | — | D+63.1 | 47.2% | 8.6% | 31.5% |
| CA-44 | Barragan (D) | — | +13.2 | — | D+60.5 | 47.2% | 8.6% | 31.5% |
| CA-45 | Tran (D) | — | +9.6 | — | D+17.9 | 47.0% | 11.0% | 30.2% |
| CA-46 | Correa (D) | — | +8.6 | — | D+36.1 | 47.0% | 11.7% | 29.9% |
| CA-47 | Min (D) | — | +8.6 | — | D+13.5 | 47.0% | 11.7% | 29.9% |
| CA-48 | von Wilpert (D) | — | +13.4 | — | D+19.2 | 40.2% | 9.5% | 24.7% |
| CA-49 | Levin (D) | — | +8.2 | — | D+15.0 | 40.0% | 9.9% | 24.3% |
| CA-50 | Peters (D) | — | +8.1 | — | D+22.0 | 38.3% | 9.5% | 22.9% |
| CA-51 | Jacobs (D) | — | +8.1 | — | D+26.3 | 38.3% | 9.5% | 22.9% |
| CA-52 | Vargas (D) | — | +8.1 | — | D+37.9 | 38.3% | 9.5% | 22.9% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.