Which Florida counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Hendry County: +26.7
- Osceola County: +19.9
- Hardee County: +19.1
- Miami-Dade County: +18.6
- Broward County: +15.3
Florida: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Florida move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Florida, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +10.2 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+13.1 in 2024, R+2.9 in 2026), counting all votes together. 66 of 67 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +6.9 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Florida
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Florida counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Gulf County: 75.6% Christian, Dem movement +0.6
- Jefferson County: 69.9% Christian, Dem movement +2.8
- Duval County: 64.4% Christian, Dem movement +12.4
- Hardee County: 64.0% Christian, Dem movement +19.1
- Collier County: 60.6% Christian, Dem movement +4.3
Florida counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendry County | +26.7 | R+38.3 | R+11.6 | 40.8% | 19.9% | 16.3% | 17.3% | 58.9% |
| Osceola County | +19.9 | R+1.4 | D+18.4 | 45.0% | 18.0% | 16.5% | 23.3% | 52.6% |
| Hardee County | +19.1 | R+56.3 | R+37.2 | 64.0% | 43.8% | 38.4% | 16.8% | 35.9% |
| Miami-Dade County | +18.6 | R+11.4 | D+7.1 | 49.0% | 16.6% | 13.0% | 29.9% | 48.6% |
| Broward County | +15.3 | D+17.0 | D+32.3 | 42.1% | 21.1% | 16.9% | 18.9% | 55.6% |
| Orange County | +14.9 | D+13.6 | D+28.5 | 46.4% | 28.2% | 22.6% | 15.7% | 50.9% |
| Polk County | +14.0 | R+20.7 | R+6.7 | 40.8% | 29.2% | 23.3% | 9.5% | 58.4% |
| Okeechobee County | +13.4 | R+53.8 | R+40.4 | 37.1% | 28.9% | 26.1% | 5.7% | 62.2% |
| DeSoto County | +13.3 | R+43.0 | R+29.6 | 33.8% | 25.8% | 17.5% | 5.6% | 66.2% |
| Duval County | +12.4 | R+1.5 | D+11.0 | 64.4% | 48.5% | 36.8% | 13.5% | 33.7% |
| Alachua County | +12.1 | D+21.0 | D+33.1 | 44.7% | 32.8% | 24.7% | 9.8% | 53.5% |
| Hillsborough County | +12.1 | R+3.1 | D+9.0 | 58.1% | 29.1% | 22.6% | 26.5% | 39.9% |
| St. Lucie County | +11.4 | R+9.1 | D+2.4 | 35.7% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 20.1% | 63.9% |
| Glades County | +11.1 | R+53.3 | R+42.2 | 58.8% | 52.9% | 50.6% | 5.9% | 40.8% |
| Pasco County | +11.0 | R+25.2 | R+14.2 | 28.5% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 13.3% | 70.5% |
| Seminole County | +10.3 | R+3.5 | D+6.7 | 51.6% | 28.7% | 22.1% | 20.1% | 46.7% |
| Wakulla County | +10.0 | R+44.3 | R+34.4 | 20.2% | 16.6% | 13.1% | 1.0% | 79.8% |
| Escambia County | +9.9 | R+19.5 | R+9.7 | 53.0% | 42.7% | 32.5% | 8.3% | 46.6% |
| Leon County | +9.6 | D+21.8 | D+31.3 | 47.4% | 38.3% | 25.6% | 6.8% | 51.1% |
| Palm Beach County | +9.5 | D+0.8 | D+10.3 | 36.2% | 14.7% | 10.7% | 19.2% | 60.6% |
| Monroe County | +9.5 | R+18.3 | R+8.9 | 51.7% | 14.7% | 9.6% | 33.7% | 47.8% |
| Clay County | +9.1 | R+39.3 | R+30.1 | 39.4% | 24.4% | 21.3% | 13.0% | 60.1% |
| Putnam County | +8.8 | R+47.8 | R+39.0 | 43.6% | 32.3% | 24.9% | 8.0% | 55.9% |
| Hamilton County | +8.3 | R+39.0 | R+30.7 | 32.3% | 30.0% | 22.1% | 0.5% | 67.7% |
| Columbia County | +8.0 | R+50.2 | R+42.2 | 56.7% | 51.2% | 45.2% | 3.1% | 43.1% |
| Santa Rosa County | +7.9 | R+51.0 | R+43.0 | 46.0% | 35.6% | 29.3% | 8.3% | 54.0% |
| Franklin County | +7.8 | R+43.8 | R+36.0 | 46.0% | 41.9% | 34.1% | 2.6% | 54.0% |
| Hernando County | +7.8 | R+37.0 | R+29.3 | 36.0% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 20.8% | 63.3% |
| Bay County | +7.5 | R+47.4 | R+39.8 | 36.7% | 27.5% | 22.7% | 6.6% | 63.1% |
| Okaloosa County | +7.4 | R+42.5 | R+35.1 | 51.9% | 40.3% | 28.7% | 8.5% | 47.3% |
| Bradford County | +7.3 | R+57.2 | R+49.9 | 40.7% | 38.4% | 27.9% | 0.5% | 59.3% |
| Taylor County | +7.0 | R+59.6 | R+52.6 | 44.1% | 40.5% | 32.1% | 1.5% | 55.9% |
| Lee County | +7.0 | R+28.4 | R+21.4 | 41.0% | 19.9% | 16.4% | 18.8% | 58.3% |
| Gadsden County | +6.9 | D+30.7 | D+37.6 | 57.9% | 50.0% | 24.5% | 4.9% | 41.8% |
| Jackson County | +6.7 | R+46.1 | R+39.4 | 52.7% | 50.3% | 37.0% | 1.3% | 47.3% |
| Suwannee County | +6.7 | R+61.0 | R+54.3 | 50.4% | 42.7% | 36.6% | 4.2% | 49.6% |
| Brevard County | +6.5 | R+20.8 | R+14.3 | 40.9% | 20.4% | 15.4% | 18.1% | 57.9% |
| Calhoun County | +6.4 | R+67.6 | R+61.2 | 25.4% | 21.3% | 15.8% | 1.3% | 74.6% |
| Levy County | +6.3 | R+50.3 | R+44.0 | 43.2% | 34.7% | 30.3% | 3.1% | 56.7% |
| Liberty County | +6.3 | R+66.8 | R+60.5 | 48.9% | 45.8% | 28.4% | 0.0% | 51.1% |
| Lake County | +6.3 | R+24.7 | R+18.4 | 39.8% | 21.4% | 15.9% | 15.9% | 59.3% |
| Madison County | +6.3 | R+28.9 | R+22.6 | 51.3% | 46.6% | 26.2% | 1.6% | 48.7% |
| Volusia County | +6.2 | R+21.8 | R+15.6 | 39.3% | 23.8% | 18.0% | 13.0% | 60.4% |
| Baker County | +5.9 | R+73.1 | R+67.2 | 33.2% | 28.5% | 25.4% | 2.3% | 66.8% |
| Pinellas County | +5.9 | R+5.2 | D+0.7 | 47.3% | 19.6% | 12.8% | 24.2% | 50.6% |
| Union County | +5.9 | R+68.3 | R+62.4 | 24.5% | 22.9% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 75.5% |
| Marion County | +5.8 | R+31.6 | R+25.8 | 36.6% | 23.9% | 18.3% | 10.2% | 61.6% |
| Washington County | +5.6 | R+65.4 | R+59.8 | 35.5% | 33.6% | 26.1% | 1.1% | 64.5% |
| Highlands County | +5.2 | R+40.8 | R+35.6 | 51.2% | 32.8% | 26.3% | 16.1% | 48.4% |
| St. Johns County | +5.1 | R+31.4 | R+26.3 | 35.4% | 20.0% | 14.5% | 13.0% | 63.6% |
| Nassau County | +4.9 | R+46.9 | R+42.0 | 40.8% | 28.4% | 22.2% | 10.1% | 59.1% |
| Holmes County | +4.7 | R+80.2 | R+75.5 | 39.3% | 36.3% | 32.2% | 0.5% | 60.4% |
| Walton County | +4.6 | R+57.8 | R+53.3 | 36.4% | 24.3% | 17.4% | 9.8% | 63.6% |
| Martin County | +4.5 | R+31.1 | R+26.6 | 52.5% | 20.7% | 14.2% | 30.3% | 46.5% |
| Indian River County | +4.4 | R+27.4 | R+22.9 | 48.7% | 17.0% | 10.2% | 30.0% | 47.4% |
| Collier County | +4.3 | R+33.1 | R+28.8 | 60.6% | 20.8% | 15.7% | 35.8% | 38.4% |
| Dixie County | +4.3 | R+70.4 | R+66.1 | 20.6% | 17.1% | 14.7% | 1.5% | 79.3% |
| Manatee County | +4.2 | R+23.5 | R+19.3 | 31.5% | 15.7% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 68.3% |
| Gilchrist County | +4.0 | R+68.0 | R+64.0 | 26.6% | 25.2% | 24.6% | 1.4% | 73.4% |
| Lafayette County | +3.5 | R+76.0 | R+72.5 | 46.4% | 40.4% | 39.7% | 6.1% | 53.5% |
| Flagler County | +3.3 | R+28.2 | R+24.9 | 44.6% | 16.9% | 14.2% | 24.0% | 55.2% |
| Jefferson County | +2.8 | R+18.6 | R+15.8 | 69.9% | 66.5% | 40.4% | 1.7% | 29.9% |
| Citrus County | +2.4 | R+45.9 | R+43.5 | 36.8% | 17.2% | 14.0% | 17.5% | 62.8% |
| Sarasota County | +1.7 | R+18.2 | R+16.5 | 52.5% | 24.0% | 18.0% | 27.1% | 45.5% |
| Gulf County | +0.6 | R+54.2 | R+53.6 | 75.6% | 71.0% | 58.8% | 3.7% | 24.4% |
| Charlotte County | +0.6 | R+34.0 | R+33.4 | 47.5% | 19.0% | 14.1% | 26.5% | 52.0% |
| Sumter County | −5.6 | R+37.6 | R+43.2 | 30.3% | 17.2% | 9.0% | 12.3% | 69.7% |
Florida congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FL-01 | Patronis (R) | +10.6 | +8.3 | R+37.5 | R+26.9 | 49.6% | 29.5% | 8.5% |
| FL-02 | Rogers (R) | +14.1 | +7.8 | R+18.3 | R+4.3 | 44.4% | 25.9% | 5.3% |
| FL-03 | Cammack (R) | +9.1 | +8.2 | R+21.3 | R+12.2 | 41.4% | 25.1% | 7.5% |
| FL-04 | Bean (R) | +9.9 | +10.2 | R+12.0 | R+2.1 | 52.7% | 29.6% | 12.8% |
| FL-05 | Rutherford (R) | +8.8 | +9.5 | R+21.7 | R+12.8 | 52.8% | 27.9% | 13.3% |
| FL-06 | Fine (R) | +11.3 | +5.7 | R+30.3 | R+19.0 | 39.9% | 17.3% | 14.6% |
| FL-07 | — | +12.1 | +8.7 | R+12.6 | R+0.5 | 46.7% | 20.5% | 17.3% |
| FL-08 | Haridopolos (R) | +10.1 | +7.9 | R+16.4 | R+6.3 | 41.8% | 16.6% | 17.7% |
| FL-09 | — | +18.4 | +12.5 | R+17.9 | D+0.5 | 46.9% | 18.0% | 21.9% |
| FL-10 | Frost (D) | — | +14.9 | — | — | 46.4% | 22.6% | 15.7% |
| FL-11 | Strada (R) | +8.9 | +6.6 | R+15.8 | R+7.0 | 40.0% | 16.8% | 14.9% |
| FL-12 | Bilirakis (R) | +8.8 | +11.5 | R+15.6 | R+6.8 | 42.8% | 16.7% | 19.7% |
| FL-13 | — | +12.7 | +6.2 | R+13.4 | R+0.8 | 46.1% | 12.7% | 23.5% |
| FL-14 | Castor (D) | +15.9 | +12.1 | R+10.6 | D+5.3 | 58.1% | 22.6% | 26.5% |
| FL-15 | Lee (R) | +11.5 | +8.3 | R+20.1 | R+8.6 | 40.0% | 14.7% | 19.7% |
| FL-16 | Gruters (R) | +9.6 | +5.1 | R+13.8 | R+4.2 | 39.3% | 13.4% | 17.7% |
| FL-17 | Steube (R) | +3.9 | +2.4 | R+22.2 | R+18.3 | 48.9% | 16.6% | 25.4% |
| FL-18 | Franklin (R) | +13.4 | +14.6 | R+17.1 | R+3.7 | 41.2% | 22.7% | 10.7% |
| FL-19 | Schwartzel (R) | +6.9 | +6.3 | R+30.4 | R+23.5 | 46.5% | 16.2% | 23.5% |
| FL-20 | Wasserman Schultz (D) | +15.1 | +15.3 | D+37.5 | D+52.6 | 42.1% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| FL-21 | Mast (R) | +7.2 | +9.2 | R+16.4 | R+9.2 | 39.6% | 11.4% | 22.1% |
| FL-22 | Dandiya (D) | +14.4 | +11.1 | R+10.6 | D+3.8 | 45.4% | 14.8% | 23.5% |
| FL-23 | Frankel (D) | +17.4 | +9.5 | D+13.9 | D+31.3 | 36.2% | 10.7% | 19.2% |
| FL-24 | Gilbert (D) | +22.2 | +17.5 | D+39.1 | D+61.3 | 46.8% | 14.2% | 26.4% |
| FL-25 | Moskowitz (D) | +13.8 | +14.1 | R+9.2 | D+4.6 | 41.8% | 13.7% | 21.8% |
| FL-26 | — | +17.7 | +17.0 | R+18.5 | R+0.8 | 45.7% | 14.9% | 24.6% |
| FL-27 | — | +14.2 | +18.6 | R+14.7 | R+0.5 | 49.0% | 13.0% | 29.9% |
| FL-28 | Gimenez (R) | +18.4 | +17.3 | R+25.6 | R+7.3 | 49.4% | 12.5% | 30.4% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.