Which Iowa counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Crawford County: +26.3
- Wapello County: +25.1
- Buena Vista County: +22.9
- Appanoose County: +22.9
- Wayne County: +22.1
Iowa: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Iowa move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Iowa, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +17.4 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+13.3 in 2024, D+4.1 in 2026), counting all votes together. 99 of 99 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +16.7 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Iowa
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Iowa counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Carroll County: 82.0% Christian, Dem movement +16.7
- Kossuth County: 78.6% Christian, Dem movement +12.4
- Sioux County: 74.6% Christian, Dem movement +9.9
- Howard County: 74.1% Christian, Dem movement +14.3
- Chickasaw County: 73.8% Christian, Dem movement +16.9
Iowa counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawford County | +26.3 | R+43.5 | R+17.2 | 49.0% | 40.4% | 31.1% | 7.6% | 51.0% |
| Wapello County | +25.1 | R+31.4 | R+6.4 | 29.3% | 19.8% | 15.5% | 7.7% | 70.7% |
| Buena Vista County | +22.9 | R+33.3 | R+10.4 | 50.1% | 31.3% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 49.8% |
| Appanoose County | +22.9 | R+46.7 | R+23.8 | 32.2% | 24.3% | 11.9% | 5.2% | 67.8% |
| Wayne County | +22.1 | R+57.2 | R+35.1 | 45.5% | 44.6% | 26.2% | 0.9% | 54.5% |
| Muscatine County | +21.5 | R+14.9 | D+6.6 | 32.0% | 18.6% | 5.8% | 11.6% | 67.9% |
| Lee County | +21.5 | R+27.8 | R+6.4 | 42.3% | 23.0% | 7.7% | 16.1% | 57.7% |
| Union County | +21.3 | R+36.2 | R+14.9 | 35.0% | 22.3% | 10.9% | 11.3% | 65.0% |
| Woodbury County | +20.9 | R+23.0 | R+2.2 | 46.6% | 22.4% | 11.1% | 21.7% | 51.6% |
| Webster County | +20.9 | R+31.2 | R+10.3 | 49.8% | 31.7% | 11.9% | 16.6% | 50.2% |
| Harrison County | +20.8 | R+41.8 | R+21.0 | 40.2% | 23.2% | 10.3% | 14.2% | 59.7% |
| Fremont County | +20.5 | R+44.6 | R+24.1 | 31.5% | 23.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 68.5% |
| Louisa County | +20.5 | R+41.0 | R+20.4 | 34.7% | 29.9% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 65.3% |
| Clarke County | +20.4 | R+42.0 | R+21.7 | 42.8% | 31.4% | 20.9% | 9.2% | 57.2% |
| Decatur County | +20.3 | R+47.1 | R+26.7 | 30.8% | 25.7% | 19.9% | 3.7% | 69.2% |
| Pottawattamie County | +20.2 | R+20.0 | D+0.2 | 33.2% | 21.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 66.8% |
| Davis County | +20.0 | R+54.4 | R+34.4 | 41.0% | 39.9% | 28.4% | 1.2% | 59.0% |
| Marshall County | +19.7 | R+15.6 | D+4.1 | 53.2% | 28.5% | 13.8% | 23.1% | 46.8% |
| Hamilton County | +19.6 | R+33.3 | R+13.7 | 49.7% | 42.7% | 17.3% | 7.0% | 50.3% |
| Boone County | +19.4 | R+21.5 | R+2.1 | 46.2% | 31.8% | 12.0% | 12.0% | 53.8% |
| Monroe County | +19.3 | R+50.7 | R+31.4 | 50.1% | 30.3% | 13.6% | 18.6% | 49.9% |
| Emmet County | +19.1 | R+44.0 | R+24.9 | 58.3% | 44.6% | 6.6% | 13.7% | 41.7% |
| Ringgold County | +19.0 | R+51.3 | R+32.3 | 32.3% | 27.8% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 67.7% |
| Greene County | +18.8 | R+33.0 | R+14.2 | 51.7% | 35.7% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 48.3% |
| Keokuk County | +18.6 | R+51.5 | R+32.9 | 44.6% | 31.6% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 55.4% |
| Monona County | +18.4 | R+45.4 | R+27.0 | 47.7% | 34.5% | 16.8% | 11.9% | 52.3% |
| Wright County | +18.3 | R+36.5 | R+18.2 | 48.6% | 37.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 51.4% |
| Clay County | +18.1 | R+43.2 | R+25.1 | 64.4% | 47.6% | 16.9% | 13.9% | 35.5% |
| Calhoun County | +18.0 | R+46.7 | R+28.7 | 57.9% | 41.1% | 11.1% | 16.2% | 42.1% |
| Henry County | +18.0 | R+36.0 | R+18.0 | 33.3% | 28.3% | 11.4% | 4.0% | 66.7% |
| Sac County | +17.8 | R+51.6 | R+33.8 | 69.9% | 50.5% | 24.1% | 19.3% | 30.1% |
| Story County | +17.8 | D+10.4 | D+28.2 | 33.1% | 22.8% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 65.6% |
| Page County | +17.8 | R+42.4 | R+24.6 | 46.7% | 39.7% | 17.3% | 4.5% | 53.3% |
| Adair County | +17.7 | R+45.0 | R+27.3 | 33.8% | 26.2% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 66.2% |
| Pocahontas County | +17.5 | R+54.0 | R+36.5 | 46.8% | 23.4% | 3.7% | 23.3% | 53.2% |
| Black Hawk County | +17.5 | D+1.2 | D+18.6 | 46.8% | 30.3% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 51.0% |
| Taylor County | +17.4 | R+55.7 | R+38.4 | 55.8% | 46.7% | 12.1% | 5.5% | 44.2% |
| Jasper County | +17.3 | R+27.6 | R+10.3 | 33.1% | 26.5% | 11.8% | 4.8% | 66.9% |
| Madison County | +17.3 | R+38.6 | R+21.3 | 35.3% | 22.4% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 64.7% |
| Mills County | +17.2 | R+39.1 | R+21.9 | 31.5% | 20.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 68.5% |
| Hardin County | +17.1 | R+38.4 | R+21.3 | 49.5% | 43.9% | 15.9% | 3.8% | 50.5% |
| Fayette County | +17.1 | R+30.5 | R+13.4 | 48.1% | 31.7% | 5.6% | 14.6% | 51.9% |
| Audubon County | +17.0 | R+38.4 | R+21.4 | 52.9% | 41.3% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 47.1% |
| Warren County | +17.0 | R+20.7 | R+3.8 | 32.6% | 21.9% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 67.4% |
| Clinton County | +16.9 | R+18.9 | R+2.0 | 48.2% | 29.3% | 15.4% | 16.5% | 51.6% |
| Chickasaw County | +16.9 | R+37.2 | R+20.3 | 73.8% | 42.7% | 9.2% | 29.9% | 26.2% |
| Buchanan County | +16.8 | R+28.2 | R+11.4 | 51.6% | 32.2% | 12.6% | 19.5% | 48.4% |
| Cherokee County | +16.8 | R+45.8 | R+29.0 | 59.7% | 41.7% | 13.6% | 18.0% | 40.3% |
| Carroll County | +16.7 | R+41.9 | R+25.2 | 82.0% | 33.6% | 23.0% | 46.8% | 18.0% |
| Jefferson County | +16.7 | R+6.8 | D+9.9 | 26.1% | 17.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 70.1% |
| Palo Alto County | +16.7 | R+45.0 | R+28.3 | 56.9% | 32.8% | 11.9% | 24.1% | 43.1% |
| Floyd County | +16.6 | R+25.7 | R+9.1 | 48.4% | 32.2% | 8.0% | 16.2% | 51.5% |
| Cedar County | +16.2 | R+21.8 | R+5.6 | 35.0% | 26.8% | 3.9% | 8.2% | 65.0% |
| Des Moines County | +16.2 | R+15.1 | D+1.1 | 32.2% | 20.6% | 6.1% | 10.0% | 64.1% |
| Scott County | +16.1 | R+3.9 | D+12.2 | 38.0% | 20.4% | 9.9% | 16.2% | 60.5% |
| Tama County | +16.1 | R+26.9 | R+10.8 | 42.5% | 28.1% | 4.1% | 14.4% | 57.5% |
| Allamakee County | +16.0 | R+34.3 | R+18.3 | 59.6% | 33.9% | 2.4% | 24.3% | 36.6% |
| Montgomery County | +15.9 | R+39.1 | R+23.2 | 51.8% | 46.7% | 13.9% | 5.1% | 48.2% |
| Franklin County | +15.9 | R+41.7 | R+25.8 | 55.9% | 44.5% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 44.1% |
| Lucas County | +15.9 | R+48.1 | R+32.2 | 29.6% | 23.3% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 70.4% |
| Poweshiek County | +15.8 | R+17.0 | R+1.1 | 34.4% | 27.1% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 65.6% |
| Polk County | +15.8 | D+10.9 | D+26.7 | 36.7% | 21.6% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 61.3% |
| Plymouth County | +15.7 | R+54.2 | R+38.6 | 61.1% | 34.3% | 11.4% | 26.0% | 38.9% |
| Mahaska County | +15.7 | R+51.6 | R+35.9 | 43.4% | 37.1% | 19.1% | 4.2% | 56.6% |
| Adams County | +15.7 | R+44.2 | R+28.5 | 39.0% | 33.0% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 61.0% |
| Clayton County | +15.7 | R+34.5 | R+18.9 | 60.3% | 39.5% | 5.4% | 19.7% | 39.7% |
| Butler County | +15.5 | R+45.4 | R+29.8 | 45.6% | 42.8% | 6.5% | 2.8% | 54.4% |
| Dallas County | +15.4 | R+4.8 | D+10.7 | 42.6% | 32.0% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 53.1% |
| Worth County | +15.4 | R+28.2 | R+12.8 | 53.7% | 50.8% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 46.3% |
| Benton County | +15.3 | R+33.2 | R+18.0 | 44.9% | 28.4% | 17.7% | 13.7% | 55.1% |
| Shelby County | +15.2 | R+43.0 | R+27.8 | 61.9% | 31.2% | 16.6% | 30.7% | 38.1% |
| Van Buren County | +15.2 | R+55.4 | R+40.2 | 38.2% | 34.4% | 21.1% | 3.8% | 61.7% |
| Cerro Gordo County | +15.2 | R+11.7 | D+3.5 | 56.9% | 41.1% | 16.8% | 13.7% | 42.3% |
| Ida County | +14.9 | R+53.4 | R+38.5 | 66.1% | 55.3% | 21.5% | 10.8% | 33.9% |
| Jackson County | +14.9 | R+32.5 | R+17.6 | 52.4% | 23.3% | 2.6% | 28.3% | 47.6% |
| Mitchell County | +14.7 | R+31.1 | R+16.4 | 62.8% | 46.9% | 16.6% | 15.9% | 37.2% |
| Humboldt County | +14.5 | R+50.0 | R+35.5 | 56.1% | 41.9% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 43.9% |
| Johnson County | +14.5 | D+38.1 | D+52.5 | 28.2% | 14.2% | 6.0% | 11.7% | 70.1% |
| Howard County | +14.3 | R+31.8 | R+17.5 | 74.1% | 36.3% | 10.7% | 37.8% | 25.9% |
| Guthrie County | +14.3 | R+38.0 | R+23.7 | 39.3% | 25.5% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 60.7% |
| Hancock County | +14.2 | R+47.4 | R+33.2 | 64.0% | 50.7% | 21.7% | 13.3% | 36.0% |
| Jones County | +14.1 | R+26.3 | R+12.2 | 46.1% | 28.4% | 3.7% | 15.2% | 53.9% |
| O'Brien County | +14.1 | R+60.9 | R+46.9 | 65.1% | 53.4% | 23.5% | 11.7% | 34.9% |
| Delaware County | +14.0 | R+39.6 | R+25.6 | 53.2% | 15.3% | 7.5% | 36.8% | 46.8% |
| Linn County | +14.0 | D+9.9 | D+23.9 | 42.3% | 23.7% | 12.0% | 17.2% | 55.1% |
| Dubuque County | +13.9 | R+8.6 | D+5.3 | 55.1% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 43.8% | 44.5% |
| Cass County | +13.8 | R+40.7 | R+26.9 | 49.5% | 37.2% | 12.5% | 10.8% | 50.4% |
| Marion County | +13.5 | R+37.8 | R+24.3 | 54.2% | 47.7% | 14.8% | 5.4% | 45.7% |
| Bremer County | +13.4 | R+22.2 | R+8.7 | 60.6% | 49.6% | 15.6% | 11.0% | 39.4% |
| Iowa County | +13.3 | R+27.7 | R+14.4 | 48.7% | 36.6% | 23.2% | 12.1% | 49.6% |
| Washington County | +13.0 | R+24.4 | R+11.4 | 41.4% | 24.5% | 12.5% | 13.9% | 58.6% |
| Winnebago County | +12.9 | R+30.7 | R+17.8 | 70.8% | 64.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 29.2% |
| Winneshiek County | +12.9 | R+9.3 | D+3.6 | 69.2% | 45.3% | 1.4% | 22.8% | 30.6% |
| Dickinson County | +12.6 | R+40.0 | R+27.4 | 67.1% | 47.9% | 8.9% | 18.4% | 32.6% |
| Grundy County | +12.6 | R+41.8 | R+29.2 | 49.1% | 42.4% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 50.9% |
| Kossuth County | +12.4 | R+44.2 | R+31.8 | 78.6% | 43.5% | 20.4% | 34.3% | 21.4% |
| Osceola County | +11.9 | R+64.2 | R+52.3 | 49.8% | 38.6% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 50.2% |
| Sioux County | +9.9 | R+71.1 | R+61.2 | 74.6% | 65.4% | 30.4% | 9.2% | 25.4% |
| Lyon County | +9.8 | R+69.8 | R+60.0 | 65.6% | 58.6% | 22.5% | 7.0% | 34.4% |
Iowa congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | Bohannan (D) | +17.8 | +16.1 | R+8.6 | D+9.2 | 36.8% | 9.2% | 12.1% |
| IA-02 | James (D) | +14.1 | +15.0 | R+10.1 | D+4.0 | 49.5% | 9.7% | 19.7% |
| IA-03 | Trone Garriott (D) | +11.8 | +16.5 | R+4.5 | D+7.3 | 38.2% | 11.0% | 11.7% |
| IA-04 | McGowan (R) | +13.8 | +17.7 | R+31.9 | R+18.1 | 50.9% | 13.9% | 15.6% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.