Which Kentucky counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Breathitt County: +28.9
- Floyd County: +28.2
- Rowan County: +26.2
- Wolfe County: +25.8
- Letcher County: +25.7
Kentucky: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Kentucky move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Kentucky, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +18.5 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+30.6 in 2024, R+12.1 in 2026), counting all votes together. 120 of 120 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +15.6 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Kentucky
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Kentucky counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Caldwell County: 97.4% Christian, Dem movement +12.1
- Ballard County: 89.4% Christian, Dem movement +11.8
- Green County: 89.3% Christian, Dem movement +11.3
- Hancock County: 87.8% Christian, Dem movement +13.8
- Bell County: 84.6% Christian, Dem movement +15.2
Kentucky counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breathitt County | +28.9 | R+59.3 | R+30.5 | 17.7% | 17.5% | 12.3% | 0.2% | 82.3% |
| Floyd County | +28.2 | R+59.2 | R+31.0 | 33.0% | 31.8% | 25.7% | 0.6% | 66.7% |
| Rowan County | +26.2 | R+27.8 | R+1.5 | 24.7% | 22.5% | 18.9% | 1.6% | 75.1% |
| Wolfe County | +25.8 | R+50.6 | R+24.7 | 31.4% | 30.7% | 26.5% | 0.7% | 68.6% |
| Letcher County | +25.7 | R+64.0 | R+38.3 | 31.0% | 29.8% | 24.6% | 0.1% | 69.0% |
| Elliott County | +25.5 | R+61.9 | R+36.4 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 0.0% | 90.9% |
| Magoffin County | +24.9 | R+64.1 | R+39.1 | 31.1% | 30.8% | 28.1% | 0.4% | 68.9% |
| Pike County | +23.8 | R+65.4 | R+41.6 | 33.1% | 32.0% | 28.8% | 0.4% | 66.7% |
| Carter County | +23.7 | R+58.5 | R+34.8 | 30.8% | 28.5% | 24.7% | 0.4% | 69.2% |
| Boyd County | +22.6 | R+38.5 | R+15.9 | 52.3% | 48.9% | 39.4% | 2.0% | 47.7% |
| Morgan County | +21.8 | R+63.5 | R+41.7 | 24.2% | 23.2% | 20.8% | 0.3% | 75.8% |
| Lewis County | +21.3 | R+75.7 | R+54.4 | 23.7% | 23.3% | 18.2% | 0.4% | 76.3% |
| Perry County | +21.1 | R+59.5 | R+38.4 | 35.0% | 33.7% | 32.0% | 0.5% | 65.0% |
| Scott County | +21.1 | R+27.7 | R+6.6 | 32.1% | 26.5% | 21.1% | 3.6% | 67.9% |
| Knott County | +21.0 | R+59.1 | R+38.1 | 26.4% | 26.4% | 25.5% | 0.0% | 73.6% |
| Madison County | +20.8 | R+30.9 | R+10.1 | 37.1% | 32.7% | 28.8% | 2.6% | 62.7% |
| Warren County | +20.7 | R+24.3 | R+3.5 | 41.4% | 32.8% | 25.9% | 6.9% | 57.9% |
| Hart County | +20.6 | R+60.0 | R+39.4 | 47.1% | 45.4% | 41.4% | 0.8% | 52.9% |
| Marion County | +20.5 | R+43.5 | R+23.0 | 51.2% | 27.2% | 22.4% | 22.1% | 48.8% |
| Mercer County | +19.9 | R+50.6 | R+30.6 | 61.5% | 58.0% | 51.0% | 2.9% | 38.5% |
| Bracken County | +19.9 | R+65.0 | R+45.2 | 42.8% | 32.6% | 26.5% | 10.2% | 57.2% |
| Carroll County | +19.6 | R+51.0 | R+31.3 | 41.8% | 32.5% | 28.4% | 7.2% | 58.2% |
| Lawrence County | +19.5 | R+67.3 | R+47.7 | 35.9% | 34.4% | 27.1% | 0.5% | 64.1% |
| Kenton County | +19.4 | R+21.7 | R+2.3 | 42.8% | 17.5% | 12.5% | 24.2% | 56.8% |
| Greenup County | +19.3 | R+50.5 | R+31.2 | 35.9% | 34.8% | 28.3% | 0.1% | 64.1% |
| Menifee County | +19.3 | R+57.7 | R+38.4 | 19.0% | 19.0% | 18.6% | 0.0% | 81.0% |
| Daviess County | +19.3 | R+31.9 | R+12.6 | 63.6% | 40.7% | 35.1% | 22.1% | 36.1% |
| Robertson County | +19.0 | R+61.2 | R+42.2 | 23.4% | 23.4% | 14.0% | 0.0% | 76.6% |
| Barren County | +18.9 | R+52.8 | R+33.9 | 42.7% | 37.9% | 31.8% | 3.2% | 57.0% |
| Bath County | +18.3 | R+51.3 | R+33.0 | 38.1% | 35.1% | 34.4% | 0.2% | 61.9% |
| Muhlenberg County | +18.3 | R+54.4 | R+36.1 | 74.1% | 71.3% | 64.0% | 1.2% | 25.9% |
| Hopkins County | +18.1 | R+50.9 | R+32.8 | 62.3% | 59.0% | 45.5% | 1.9% | 37.7% |
| Campbell County | +17.7 | R+19.7 | R+1.9 | 50.4% | 21.7% | 16.0% | 27.5% | 49.6% |
| Grant County | +17.5 | R+64.8 | R+47.3 | 50.3% | 46.6% | 44.3% | 1.9% | 49.7% |
| Lincoln County | +17.4 | R+61.2 | R+43.8 | 53.1% | 51.5% | 45.0% | 0.4% | 46.9% |
| Metcalfe County | +17.4 | R+64.7 | R+47.3 | 65.6% | 60.2% | 53.6% | 0.6% | 34.4% |
| Powell County | +17.3 | R+54.4 | R+37.2 | 34.2% | 33.8% | 30.2% | 0.4% | 64.2% |
| Johnson County | +17.2 | R+70.7 | R+53.4 | 29.8% | 26.9% | 22.4% | 1.2% | 70.2% |
| Knox County | +17.2 | R+71.1 | R+54.0 | 61.0% | 58.6% | 55.4% | 1.9% | 39.0% |
| Boyle County | +17.1 | R+29.0 | R+11.9 | 73.4% | 67.4% | 55.1% | 3.8% | 26.2% |
| Nelson County | +17.1 | R+41.8 | R+24.6 | 44.7% | 22.2% | 17.6% | 21.3% | 55.3% |
| Gallatin County | +17.1 | R+59.9 | R+42.9 | 30.1% | 28.4% | 25.7% | 1.8% | 69.9% |
| Boone County | +17.0 | R+37.2 | R+20.1 | 42.0% | 24.8% | 22.6% | 15.9% | 57.5% |
| Simpson County | +16.8 | R+43.9 | R+27.1 | 45.9% | 41.4% | 34.0% | 2.3% | 54.1% |
| Montgomery County | +16.7 | R+46.6 | R+29.9 | 42.2% | 39.8% | 29.8% | 1.7% | 57.8% |
| Henry County | +16.7 | R+52.5 | R+35.7 | 37.7% | 36.6% | 29.1% | 1.1% | 62.3% |
| Hardin County | +16.7 | R+29.3 | R+12.6 | 43.7% | 36.3% | 31.0% | 5.8% | 56.1% |
| Harlan County | +16.6 | R+76.2 | R+59.5 | 51.7% | 50.9% | 43.9% | 0.5% | 48.3% |
| Franklin County | +16.5 | R+4.8 | D+11.6 | 44.3% | 39.1% | 28.0% | 3.3% | 54.9% |
| Meade County | +16.4 | R+52.1 | R+35.6 | 48.8% | 36.7% | 31.5% | 10.2% | 51.2% |
| Owen County | +16.3 | R+62.7 | R+46.4 | 49.8% | 48.1% | 43.7% | 1.8% | 50.2% |
| Christian County | +16.3 | R+33.6 | R+17.3 | 53.1% | 46.9% | 36.3% | 5.2% | 46.9% |
| Logan County | +16.2 | R+55.1 | R+38.8 | 70.2% | 66.1% | 56.3% | 2.4% | 29.8% |
| Edmonson County* | +16.2 | R+62.9 | R+46.7 | 130.2% | 128.9% | 128.7% | 1.3% | -30.2% |
| Bullitt County | +16.2 | R+51.0 | R+34.8 | 29.8% | 24.8% | 22.6% | 3.3% | 70.2% |
| Union County | +16.1 | R+58.3 | R+42.2 | 73.8% | 55.7% | 46.5% | 18.1% | 26.2% |
| Laurel County | +16.0 | R+69.9 | R+53.9 | 43.0% | 41.1% | 37.6% | 0.6% | 56.9% |
| Mason County | +16.0 | R+43.7 | R+27.7 | 58.8% | 50.8% | 32.2% | 4.7% | 41.2% |
| Grayson County | +15.7 | R+61.8 | R+46.1 | 42.6% | 33.7% | 30.3% | 8.0% | 57.4% |
| Todd County | +15.7 | R+57.9 | R+42.2 | 77.2% | 73.4% | 64.2% | 2.0% | 22.8% |
| Whitley County | +15.6 | R+69.3 | R+53.7 | 57.8% | 56.9% | 54.4% | 0.2% | 42.2% |
| Jefferson County | +15.4 | D+16.6 | D+31.9 | 48.3% | 32.6% | 21.0% | 14.2% | 48.9% |
| Wayne County | +15.4 | R+66.0 | R+50.6 | 67.0% | 65.2% | 56.3% | 0.9% | 33.0% |
| Garrard County | +15.3 | R+60.2 | R+44.8 | 50.3% | 49.8% | 45.0% | 0.5% | 49.7% |
| Graves County | +15.3 | R+61.6 | R+46.3 | 73.1% | 64.0% | 56.7% | 7.5% | 26.9% |
| Pendleton County | +15.3 | R+63.5 | R+48.2 | 48.2% | 46.7% | 42.5% | 1.5% | 51.8% |
| Clark County | +15.2 | R+35.3 | R+20.1 | 41.7% | 38.2% | 28.0% | 1.7% | 58.3% |
| Bell County | +15.2 | R+68.7 | R+53.5 | 84.6% | 83.2% | 76.4% | 1.5% | 15.4% |
| Estill County | +15.2 | R+63.2 | R+48.1 | 37.9% | 36.2% | 32.3% | 0.4% | 62.1% |
| Jessamine County | +14.9 | R+35.9 | R+21.0 | 55.5% | 52.3% | 46.8% | 1.6% | 44.5% |
| Martin County | +14.9 | R+83.6 | R+68.7 | 25.5% | 25.5% | 24.7% | 0.0% | 74.5% |
| Allen County | +14.8 | R+67.1 | R+52.3 | 34.3% | 33.2% | 23.6% | 1.0% | 65.7% |
| Washington County | +14.8 | R+50.3 | R+35.4 | 71.9% | 43.3% | 40.6% | 28.6% | 28.1% |
| Fleming County | +14.8 | R+60.6 | R+45.9 | 31.5% | 30.1% | 19.0% | 1.3% | 68.5% |
| Calloway County | +14.6 | R+38.0 | R+23.4 | 61.1% | 55.1% | 44.6% | 2.9% | 38.7% |
| Anderson County | +14.4 | R+49.1 | R+34.6 | 54.1% | 52.1% | 44.1% | 2.0% | 45.9% |
| Larue County | +14.4 | R+60.4 | R+46.0 | 47.8% | 46.3% | 41.2% | 1.5% | 52.2% |
| Spencer County | +14.2 | R+56.7 | R+42.6 | 34.8% | 33.0% | 31.2% | 1.8% | 65.2% |
| Harrison County | +14.1 | R+48.5 | R+34.4 | 47.2% | 43.9% | 30.0% | 2.6% | 52.8% |
| Pulaski County | +14.0 | R+65.2 | R+51.2 | 54.7% | 52.0% | 48.2% | 1.2% | 45.2% |
| Breckinridge County | +13.9 | R+58.2 | R+44.3 | 53.0% | 37.9% | 29.6% | 14.3% | 47.0% |
| Trimble County | +13.8 | R+55.5 | R+41.7 | 38.6% | 38.6% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 61.4% |
| Webster County | +13.8 | R+57.3 | R+43.5 | 59.0% | 55.9% | 41.9% | 3.1% | 41.0% |
| Hancock County | +13.8 | R+47.5 | R+33.7 | 87.8% | 80.6% | 72.0% | 7.2% | 12.2% |
| McCracken County | +13.8 | R+34.9 | R+21.2 | 77.0% | 70.0% | 59.1% | 5.7% | 22.8% |
| Ohio County | +13.7 | R+60.2 | R+46.6 | 68.3% | 63.4% | 58.8% | 4.3% | 31.7% |
| Fayette County | +13.5 | D+18.1 | D+31.6 | 46.9% | 37.1% | 23.7% | 7.3% | 51.6% |
| Bourbon County | +13.3 | R+33.5 | R+20.2 | 44.9% | 39.0% | 25.6% | 3.6% | 55.1% |
| Shelby County | +12.9 | R+34.7 | R+21.8 | 49.4% | 38.9% | 33.0% | 6.7% | 50.5% |
| Rockcastle County | +12.8 | R+73.1 | R+60.3 | 57.7% | 56.7% | 53.1% | 0.1% | 42.3% |
| Carlisle County | +12.6 | R+68.0 | R+55.4 | 65.5% | 62.1% | 54.4% | 3.4% | 34.5% |
| Jackson County | +12.2 | R+81.8 | R+69.5 | 34.2% | 32.2% | 28.0% | 0.3% | 65.8% |
| Caldwell County | +12.1 | R+58.2 | R+46.2 | 97.4% | 93.9% | 80.5% | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| McCreary County | +12.0 | R+78.7 | R+66.8 | 27.2% | 25.3% | 20.8% | 0.6% | 72.8% |
| Marshall County | +11.9 | R+56.7 | R+44.8 | 68.2% | 65.2% | 53.9% | 1.7% | 31.8% |
| Henderson County | +11.9 | R+29.2 | R+17.3 | 57.7% | 44.6% | 34.2% | 10.9% | 42.3% |
| Lyon County | +11.9 | R+53.4 | R+41.6 | 65.5% | 63.9% | 48.9% | 1.6% | 34.5% |
| Leslie County | +11.8 | R+80.9 | R+69.1 | 30.9% | 30.9% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 69.1% |
| Ballard County | +11.8 | R+64.4 | R+52.7 | 89.4% | 86.6% | 76.1% | 2.8% | 10.6% |
| Clay County | +11.5 | R+80.3 | R+68.8 | 43.6% | 43.3% | 40.1% | 0.3% | 56.4% |
| Green County | +11.3 | R+72.6 | R+61.2 | 89.3% | 88.9% | 72.5% | 0.4% | 10.7% |
| Cumberland County | +11.3 | R+70.9 | R+59.6 | 59.1% | 58.4% | 36.5% | 0.7% | 40.9% |
| Oldham County | +11.2 | R+22.6 | R+11.4 | 34.0% | 19.4% | 10.3% | 10.7% | 63.4% |
| Trigg County | +11.2 | R+52.4 | R+41.2 | 82.6% | 79.3% | 63.7% | 2.3% | 17.4% |
| Casey County | +11.0 | R+76.4 | R+65.5 | 51.2% | 47.8% | 40.4% | 0.9% | 48.8% |
| Lee County | +11.0 | R+67.7 | R+56.7 | 30.9% | 24.9% | 21.7% | 1.1% | 69.1% |
| Butler County | +10.7 | R+66.3 | R+55.6 | 76.6% | 71.5% | 67.5% | 0.8% | 23.4% |
| Owsley County | +10.4 | R+77.3 | R+67.0 | 27.5% | 26.7% | 23.3% | 0.9% | 72.5% |
| Adair County | +10.3 | R+71.2 | R+60.9 | 32.4% | 31.7% | 21.4% | 0.7% | 67.6% |
| Taylor County | +10.3 | R+56.7 | R+46.4 | 67.5% | 62.0% | 51.3% | 3.5% | 32.4% |
| McLean County | +9.9 | R+55.9 | R+46.0 | 78.1% | 73.2% | 55.9% | 3.5% | 21.9% |
| Russell County | +9.5 | R+72.2 | R+62.7 | 46.0% | 45.1% | 32.1% | 0.9% | 54.0% |
| Woodford County | +9.1 | R+14.3 | R+5.2 | 62.7% | 54.2% | 39.2% | 7.5% | 37.3% |
| Hickman County* | +8.5 | R+61.0 | R+52.5 | 111.1% | 107.0% | 87.0% | 4.2% | -11.3% |
| Nicholas County | +8.4 | R+49.0 | R+40.6 | 41.5% | 40.3% | 26.1% | 1.2% | 58.5% |
| Clinton County | +8.4 | R+76.4 | R+68.0 | 60.3% | 58.6% | 41.0% | 1.7% | 39.7% |
| Fulton County | +7.7 | R+39.9 | R+32.2 | 74.3% | 65.0% | 46.0% | 2.3% | 25.7% |
| Livingston County | +6.8 | R+63.0 | R+56.2 | 70.5% | 69.6% | 58.3% | 0.9% | 29.5% |
| Monroe County | +6.7 | R+77.3 | R+70.6 | 57.9% | 53.4% | 48.7% | 0.7% | 42.1% |
| Crittenden County | +6.6 | R+68.4 | R+61.8 | 64.4% | 59.8% | 55.4% | 3.6% | 35.6% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 2 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
Kentucky congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-01 | Comer (R) | +12.7 | +14.0 | R+47.9 | R+35.2 | 62.6% | 45.7% | 4.9% |
| KY-02 | Guthrie (R) | +14.2 | +17.2 | R+41.9 | R+27.7 | 51.1% | 35.0% | 8.6% |
| KY-03 | McGarvey (D) | +21.4 | +15.4 | D+19.3 | D+40.7 | 48.3% | 21.0% | 14.2% |
| KY-04 | Gallrein (R) | +22.8 | +16.7 | R+36.2 | R+13.4 | 43.0% | 21.1% | 14.7% |
| KY-05 | Rogers (R) | +18.9 | +19.1 | R+64.7 | R+45.8 | 42.0% | 35.9% | 0.7% |
| KY-06 | Dembo (D) | +24.7 | +15.4 | R+15.3 | D+9.4 | 45.5% | 29.1% | 4.6% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.