In Louisiana, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +20.2 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+22.0 in 2024, R+1.8 in 2026), counting all votes together. 64 of 64 parishes moved toward Democrats, and the median parish moved +18.6 points.
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| Parish | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Bernard Parish | +29.4 | R+29.3 | D+0.1 | 44.4% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 33.0% | 55.6% |
| Evangeline Parish | +27.8 | R+49.1 | R+21.2 | 49.7% | 20.2% | 17.4% | 29.5% | 50.3% |
| Catahoula Parish | +27.6 | R+50.5 | R+22.9 | 78.9% | 78.6% | 76.1% | 0.3% | 21.1% |
| Tensas Parish | +26.6 | R+4.3 | D+22.3 | 40.5% | 38.6% | 30.4% | 1.9% | 59.5% |
| Ascension Parish | +25.0 | R+33.9 | R+8.9 | 49.7% | 17.0% | 14.8% | 31.0% | 50.3% |
| Assumption Parish | +24.1 | R+35.6 | R+11.5 | 62.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 53.3% | 38.0% |
| Red River Parish | +23.9 | R+27.3 | R+3.4 | 53.1% | 46.5% | 35.3% | 2.6% | 46.8% |
| Concordia Parish | +23.9 | R+29.4 | R+5.5 | 48.3% | 46.2% | 42.2% | 1.5% | 51.7% |
| Livingston Parish | +23.4 | R+68.5 | R+45.1 | 49.2% | 38.2% | 33.7% | 9.8% | 50.8% |
| Allen Parish | +23.0 | R+61.0 | R+38.0 | 46.5% | 30.0% | 24.1% | 14.9% | 53.5% |
| Franklin Parish | +22.4 | R+49.2 | R+26.8 | 74.9% | 71.0% | 65.1% | 1.2% | 25.1% |
| West Baton Rouge Parish | +22.2 | R+11.7 | D+10.5 | 45.9% | 20.5% | 15.9% | 25.4% | 54.1% |
| St. Charles Parish | +22.1 | R+32.3 | R+10.2 | 54.0% | 10.8% | 7.4% | 41.8% | 42.7% |
| St. Landry Parish | +21.9 | R+18.8 | D+3.1 | 68.8% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 53.6% | 31.2% |
| Pointe Coupee Parish | +21.4 | R+27.6 | R+6.2 | 56.4% | 17.3% | 11.0% | 37.6% | 43.6% |
| Jefferson Davis Parish | +21.2 | R+61.1 | R+39.9 | 69.8% | 32.4% | 27.4% | 36.1% | 30.2% |
| Washington Parish | +21.2 | R+40.3 | R+19.1 | 53.4% | 46.6% | 35.6% | 5.3% | 46.3% |
| Richland Parish | +21.2 | R+39.4 | R+18.2 | 53.9% | 52.8% | 41.8% | 1.1% | 46.1% |
| Lafourche Parish | +21.0 | R+62.1 | R+41.0 | 52.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 43.6% | 47.8% |
| Lafayette Parish | +21.0 | R+31.4 | R+10.3 | 70.6% | 28.0% | 16.0% | 41.5% | 29.1% |
| Bienville Parish | +21.0 | R+18.1 | D+2.9 | 78.8% | 77.3% | 59.6% | 1.5% | 21.2% |
| Calcasieu Parish | +20.9 | R+39.6 | R+18.7 | 60.4% | 35.8% | 26.1% | 23.6% | 39.4% |
| Rapides Parish | +20.5 | R+36.8 | R+16.3 | 73.0% | 57.9% | 46.2% | 13.9% | 26.5% |
| Jefferson Parish | +20.4 | R+12.9 | D+7.4 | 67.7% | 21.7% | 17.5% | 44.7% | 29.1% |
| Vermilion Parish | +19.9 | R+63.8 | R+44.0 | 48.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 39.9% | 51.2% |
| Tangipahoa Parish | +19.8 | R+37.4 | R+17.6 | 52.3% | 36.6% | 27.9% | 13.9% | 47.7% |
| Plaquemines Parish | +19.7 | R+38.0 | R+18.3 | 74.4% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 63.1% | 25.6% |
| Natchitoches Parish | +19.2 | R+22.3 | R+3.1 | 51.5% | 38.9% | 32.3% | 11.0% | 48.2% |
| St. Martin Parish | +18.8 | R+40.7 | R+21.9 | 56.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 51.6% | 42.9% |
| Jackson Parish | +18.7 | R+47.6 | R+28.9 | 87.5% | 83.6% | 74.9% | 1.1% | 12.5% |
| Iberville Parish | +18.7 | R+0.7 | D+17.9 | 44.3% | 15.9% | 10.6% | 26.1% | 53.6% |
| St. Mary Parish | +18.6 | R+31.9 | R+13.3 | 61.4% | 30.9% | 24.9% | 28.9% | 38.6% |
| Iberia Parish | +18.6 | R+34.1 | R+15.5 | 72.8% | 19.6% | 14.6% | 51.7% | 26.8% |
| Avoyelles Parish | +18.1 | R+43.1 | R+25.0 | 59.3% | 15.9% | 15.0% | 42.4% | 40.6% |
| Morehouse Parish | +17.9 | R+19.3 | R+1.4 | 57.0% | 51.5% | 34.9% | 2.3% | 43.0% |
| De Soto Parish | +17.9 | R+35.5 | R+17.6 | 56.9% | 49.3% | 39.8% | 4.4% | 43.0% |
| St. Tammany Parish | +17.9 | R+43.8 | R+25.9 | 80.4% | 24.1% | 16.7% | 54.8% | 18.9% |
| St. John the Baptist Parish | +17.8 | D+29.1 | D+47.0 | 59.6% | 22.3% | 18.3% | 35.5% | 40.3% |
| Ouachita Parish | +17.8 | R+27.9 | R+10.1 | 60.8% | 54.3% | 41.8% | 5.2% | 38.6% |
| Terrebonne Parish | +17.7 | R+51.8 | R+34.1 | 61.5% | 23.1% | 17.6% | 35.7% | 38.4% |
| East Baton Rouge Parish | +17.6 | D+11.1 | D+28.7 | 61.3% | 40.7% | 28.5% | 18.8% | 36.7% |
| Acadia Parish | +16.0 | R+64.0 | R+47.9 | 59.7% | 14.1% | 11.4% | 45.0% | 40.3% |
| St. Helena Parish | +16.0 | D+0.8 | D+16.8 | 52.3% | 52.3% | 24.5% | 0.0% | 47.6% |
| Caldwell Parish | +15.9 | R+72.5 | R+56.7 | 52.4% | 50.9% | 45.3% | 1.5% | 47.6% |
| Vernon Parish | +15.7 | R+67.9 | R+52.2 | 55.8% | 52.1% | 44.3% | 1.2% | 44.2% |
| Winn Parish | +15.7 | R+54.4 | R+38.8 | 77.7% | 71.7% | 60.4% | 4.3% | 22.2% |
| Sabine Parish | +15.6 | R+70.1 | R+54.5 | 79.1% | 62.1% | 55.9% | 15.1% | 20.9% |
| Grant Parish | +15.6 | R+76.8 | R+61.3 | 42.8% | 41.9% | 39.7% | 0.8% | 57.2% |
| Beauregard Parish | +15.4 | R+71.3 | R+55.9 | 70.9% | 61.0% | 52.7% | 9.9% | 29.1% |
| St. James Parish* | +15.0 | R+0.9 | D+14.1 | 118.0% | 20.7% | 6.6% | 95.8% | -18.0% |
| Webster Parish | +14.9 | R+36.5 | R+21.6 | 66.9% | 63.1% | 44.5% | 1.7% | 33.0% |
| West Carroll Parish | +14.9 | R+74.0 | R+59.1 | 90.2% | 86.6% | 81.2% | 1.9% | 9.8% |
| LaSalle Parish | +14.7 | R+82.7 | R+68.0 | 60.4% | 59.1% | 53.5% | 0.4% | 39.6% |
| Cameron Parish | +14.3 | R+86.3 | R+72.0 | 69.8% | 34.3% | 31.6% | 35.5% | 30.2% |
| Bossier Parish | +14.0 | R+43.3 | R+29.4 | 57.3% | 50.5% | 39.2% | 5.3% | 41.2% |
| East Feliciana Parish | +13.9 | R+22.2 | R+8.3 | 48.5% | 44.7% | 32.0% | 1.3% | 51.5% |
| Lincoln Parish | +13.3 | R+25.4 | R+12.1 | 54.3% | 50.3% | 38.1% | 2.3% | 45.4% |
| Caddo Parish | +13.3 | D+4.6 | D+17.9 | 80.1% | 70.8% | 47.7% | 7.9% | 19.1% |
| Madison Parish | +13.3 | D+6.2 | D+19.5 | 47.4% | 46.1% | 30.3% | 1.3% | 52.6% |
| Union Parish | +12.0 | R+57.0 | R+45.0 | 67.8% | 62.2% | 55.8% | 2.8% | 32.2% |
| West Feliciana Parish | +11.7 | R+31.9 | R+20.2 | 30.2% | 23.6% | 13.4% | 6.4% | 69.8% |
| Claiborne Parish | +11.6 | R+22.1 | R+10.5 | 59.8% | 57.5% | 39.0% | 1.4% | 40.2% |
| East Carroll Parish | +10.3 | D+17.6 | D+27.9 | 26.1% | 22.9% | 20.9% | 3.2% | 73.9% |
| Orleans Parish | +10.2 | D+67.0 | D+77.2 | 52.2% | 22.8% | 8.6% | 28.0% | 44.2% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 1 parishes marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA-01 | Scalise (R) | +12.3 | +18.5 | R+42.8 | R+30.5 | 69.0% | 16.0% | 45.0% |
| LA-02 | Carter (D) | +16.1 | +15.4 | D+48.7 | D+64.8 | 59.1% | 13.5% | 34.1% |
| LA-03 | Higgins (R) | +2.6 | +20.0 | R+27.7 | R+25.1 | 65.0% | 16.0% | 40.6% |
| LA-04 | Johnson (R) | −0.9 | +16.2 | R+24.6 | R+25.5 | 66.4% | 41.4% | 9.5% |
| LA-05 | — | +35.1 | +18.4 | R+61.2 | R+26.1 | 60.0% | 39.4% | 9.2% |
| LA-06 | — | +32.6 | +20.5 | R+48.7 | R+16.0 | 55.9% | 23.1% | 23.8% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.