Which Minnesota counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Nobles County: +14.6
- Clay County: +10.7
- Mower County: +10.0
- Winona County: +9.2
- St. Louis County: +8.6
Minnesota: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Minnesota move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Minnesota, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +5.9 points from Harris's 2024 margin (D+4.3 in 2024, D+10.2 in 2026), counting all votes together. 84 of 87 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +3.7 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Minnesota
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Minnesota counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Lac qui Parle County: 97.4% Christian, Dem movement +2.9
- Brown County: 87.7% Christian, Dem movement +3.2
- Grant County: 81.6% Christian, Dem movement −0.6
- Big Stone County: 80.7% Christian, Dem movement +0.3
- Redwood County: 80.3% Christian, Dem movement +2.2
Minnesota counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nobles County | +14.6 | R+35.6 | R+21.0 | 65.0% | 31.0% | 12.3% | 29.4% | 35.0% |
| Clay County | +10.7 | D+0.5 | D+11.2 | 46.2% | 32.7% | 8.4% | 13.1% | 53.7% |
| Mower County | +10.0 | R+10.5 | R+0.5 | 56.3% | 32.9% | 7.9% | 22.2% | 43.7% |
| Winona County | +9.2 | R+4.9 | D+4.3 | 55.3% | 29.3% | 20.3% | 24.4% | 44.0% |
| St. Louis County | +8.6 | D+13.7 | D+22.3 | 34.2% | 19.1% | 7.1% | 13.8% | 64.8% |
| Blue Earth County | +8.2 | R+1.2 | D+7.0 | 51.6% | 33.3% | 19.1% | 18.3% | 47.3% |
| Olmsted County | +8.2 | D+10.7 | D+18.9 | 45.4% | 29.0% | 14.5% | 14.2% | 52.4% |
| Ramsey County | +8.2 | D+43.3 | D+51.5 | 37.9% | 17.2% | 7.3% | 18.8% | 57.5% |
| Freeborn County | +8.1 | R+21.3 | R+13.2 | 58.8% | 47.0% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 41.2% |
| Lake County | +7.3 | D+3.9 | D+11.2 | 47.3% | 34.2% | 5.8% | 12.1% | 52.6% |
| Kittson County | +7.0 | R+25.0 | R+18.0 | 78.4% | 72.0% | 15.0% | 6.4% | 21.6% |
| Stearns County | +7.0 | R+26.8 | R+19.8 | 51.8% | 17.1% | 8.7% | 33.9% | 47.0% |
| Watonwan County | +6.8 | R+27.8 | R+20.9 | 73.7% | 47.5% | 15.8% | 25.1% | 26.3% |
| Carlton County | +6.6 | R+2.5 | D+4.0 | 38.8% | 25.8% | 13.7% | 10.4% | 61.2% |
| Polk County | +6.5 | R+33.8 | R+27.2 | 50.9% | 31.6% | 9.2% | 18.5% | 45.4% |
| Pennington County | +6.5 | R+31.5 | R+25.0 | 61.1% | 49.7% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 38.9% |
| Anoka County | +6.3 | R+4.4 | D+1.9 | 38.9% | 17.9% | 10.6% | 20.3% | 57.7% |
| Houston County | +6.1 | R+16.5 | R+10.4 | 62.1% | 34.3% | 11.5% | 27.9% | 37.9% |
| Kanabec County | +6.1 | R+42.4 | R+36.3 | 26.4% | 19.3% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 73.6% |
| Steele County | +5.9 | R+24.5 | R+18.6 | 60.7% | 39.8% | 9.5% | 20.4% | 38.8% |
| Rice County | +5.8 | R+2.5 | D+3.3 | 55.4% | 27.6% | 10.1% | 25.3% | 44.0% |
| Isanti County | +5.6 | R+41.2 | R+35.6 | 20.1% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 79.9% |
| Fillmore County | +5.5 | R+25.5 | R+20.0 | 73.7% | 60.7% | 16.7% | 10.6% | 26.3% |
| Red Lake County | +5.5 | R+37.1 | R+31.7 | 77.2% | 35.1% | 8.7% | 42.1% | 22.8% |
| Cook County | +5.3 | D+35.0 | D+40.3 | 30.5% | 20.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 69.4% |
| Rock County | +5.3 | R+39.3 | R+34.0 | 71.0% | 54.5% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 29.0% |
| Todd County | +5.3 | R+53.5 | R+48.3 | 48.1% | 30.2% | 18.8% | 17.9% | 51.9% |
| Lyon County | +5.2 | R+31.8 | R+26.6 | 61.2% | 33.4% | 13.8% | 25.4% | 38.0% |
| Itasca County | +5.2 | R+20.2 | R+15.0 | 39.3% | 24.0% | 13.7% | 13.8% | 60.5% |
| Clearwater County | +5.1 | R+50.1 | R+45.0 | 53.9% | 48.2% | 25.9% | 3.5% | 46.1% |
| Norman County | +5.1 | R+22.2 | R+17.2 | 72.0% | 63.5% | 11.6% | 8.5% | 28.0% |
| Pine County | +5.0 | R+35.2 | R+30.1 | 54.6% | 24.2% | 12.8% | 27.6% | 45.4% |
| Dakota County | +4.7 | D+12.9 | D+17.5 | 49.1% | 24.1% | 14.2% | 23.6% | 47.5% |
| Beltrami County | +4.6 | R+5.7 | R+1.1 | 34.6% | 23.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 65.1% |
| Benton County | +4.6 | R+35.9 | R+31.4 | 52.3% | 24.0% | 14.2% | 26.4% | 47.7% |
| Lincoln County | +4.5 | R+37.8 | R+33.2 | 79.0% | 46.8% | 10.9% | 29.0% | 21.0% |
| Faribault County | +4.4 | R+37.4 | R+33.0 | 74.2% | 50.6% | 12.7% | 22.5% | 25.7% |
| Marshall County | +4.2 | R+51.7 | R+47.5 | 63.3% | 47.2% | 10.0% | 16.1% | 36.7% |
| Dodge County | +4.2 | R+32.0 | R+27.8 | 59.4% | 47.0% | 16.4% | 10.1% | 40.6% |
| Sherburne County | +4.1 | R+34.9 | R+30.8 | 29.5% | 18.8% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 70.5% |
| Kandiyohi County | +4.1 | R+31.0 | R+26.9 | 66.9% | 51.9% | 17.8% | 13.5% | 32.5% |
| Pipestone County | +3.9 | R+48.1 | R+44.2 | 71.0% | 58.0% | 28.4% | 10.8% | 29.0% |
| Mille Lacs County | +3.8 | R+40.9 | R+37.1 | 54.8% | 34.9% | 16.7% | 17.0% | 45.1% |
| Chippewa County | +3.7 | R+34.1 | R+30.4 | 77.6% | 66.3% | 15.6% | 11.3% | 22.4% |
| Hubbard County | +3.6 | R+31.5 | R+27.9 | 33.8% | 25.7% | 14.0% | 7.1% | 66.2% |
| Chisago County | +3.6 | R+31.4 | R+27.8 | 34.5% | 20.0% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 65.4% |
| Cottonwood County | +3.6 | R+41.1 | R+37.5 | 61.3% | 54.1% | 27.3% | 7.2% | 38.7% |
| Wright County | +3.5 | R+29.4 | R+25.9 | 43.3% | 16.6% | 8.7% | 25.5% | 56.4% |
| Wabasha County | +3.4 | R+28.2 | R+24.8 | 70.8% | 34.1% | 15.9% | 36.7% | 29.2% |
| McLeod County | +3.4 | R+38.0 | R+34.6 | 69.8% | 43.1% | 35.1% | 25.4% | 30.2% |
| Hennepin County | +3.3 | D+42.6 | D+45.9 | 43.6% | 24.1% | 11.1% | 18.0% | 48.8% |
| Brown County | +3.2 | R+35.2 | R+32.0 | 87.7% | 41.7% | 23.5% | 45.5% | 12.1% |
| Koochiching County | +3.2 | R+25.7 | R+22.5 | 49.3% | 32.2% | 16.8% | 15.8% | 50.6% |
| Scott County | +3.1 | R+8.5 | R+5.4 | 48.9% | 19.6% | 11.6% | 28.6% | 49.8% |
| Wilkin County | +3.1 | R+39.0 | R+35.9 | 54.3% | 35.0% | 7.1% | 17.8% | 45.7% |
| Washington County | +3.1 | D+8.9 | D+12.0 | 43.0% | 21.5% | 8.7% | 20.6% | 55.8% |
| Nicollet County | +3.0 | R+0.5 | D+2.5 | 49.4% | 28.3% | 16.2% | 18.4% | 48.9% |
| Mahnomen County | +2.9 | R+8.7 | R+5.8 | 44.6% | 20.8% | 4.7% | 23.8% | 55.3% |
| Lac qui Parle County | +2.9 | R+32.2 | R+29.4 | 97.4% | 76.6% | 19.6% | 20.8% | 2.6% |
| Waseca County | +2.9 | R+32.5 | R+29.7 | 64.0% | 40.7% | 19.5% | 22.3% | 35.9% |
| Wadena County | +2.8 | R+51.5 | R+48.6 | 55.3% | 40.8% | 26.9% | 12.2% | 44.7% |
| Roseau County | +2.6 | R+49.3 | R+46.7 | 45.5% | 33.3% | 14.9% | 10.1% | 54.5% |
| Becker County | +2.6 | R+33.1 | R+30.6 | 52.9% | 35.2% | 20.3% | 16.5% | 47.1% |
| Lake of the Woods County | +2.6 | R+47.1 | R+44.6 | 61.7% | 52.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 38.3% |
| Redwood County | +2.2 | R+43.3 | R+41.1 | 80.3% | 51.2% | 23.1% | 28.6% | 19.7% |
| Crow Wing County | +2.2 | R+31.4 | R+29.2 | 43.5% | 25.9% | 9.3% | 16.3% | 56.5% |
| Goodhue County | +2.1 | R+16.4 | R+14.3 | 65.0% | 50.3% | 15.3% | 13.7% | 35.0% |
| Otter Tail County | +2.0 | R+34.2 | R+32.2 | 55.9% | 43.4% | 21.9% | 12.1% | 43.9% |
| Yellow Medicine County | +1.9 | R+40.6 | R+38.7 | 74.1% | 56.2% | 19.2% | 17.9% | 25.9% |
| Renville County | +1.9 | R+41.4 | R+39.5 | 74.5% | 51.8% | 12.8% | 22.7% | 25.5% |
| Jackson County | +1.5 | R+42.1 | R+40.6 | 71.0% | 53.6% | 20.1% | 17.4% | 29.0% |
| Stevens County | +1.4 | R+27.1 | R+25.7 | 77.0% | 55.3% | 19.4% | 18.1% | 23.0% |
| Murray County | +1.2 | R+42.4 | R+41.2 | 68.8% | 42.2% | 12.4% | 26.6% | 31.2% |
| Sibley County | +1.2 | R+43.0 | R+41.9 | 66.3% | 48.0% | 28.4% | 17.4% | 33.7% |
| Morrison County | +1.1 | R+56.0 | R+54.9 | 60.4% | 16.7% | 9.9% | 43.3% | 39.6% |
| Meeker County | +1.1 | R+42.8 | R+41.8 | 47.9% | 31.4% | 10.0% | 16.0% | 52.1% |
| Le Sueur County | +0.9 | R+33.7 | R+32.8 | 47.4% | 22.0% | 4.7% | 24.0% | 52.6% |
| Douglas County | +0.8 | R+35.1 | R+34.3 | 58.8% | 38.5% | 16.4% | 19.2% | 41.1% |
| Martin County | +0.8 | R+39.7 | R+38.9 | 80.1% | 52.4% | 27.4% | 26.1% | 19.9% |
| Swift County | +0.8 | R+34.2 | R+33.4 | 68.1% | 47.1% | 12.2% | 21.0% | 31.9% |
| Pope County | +0.6 | R+31.7 | R+31.1 | 57.9% | 44.9% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 42.0% |
| Aitkin County | +0.4 | R+30.9 | R+30.4 | 48.1% | 31.2% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 51.9% |
| Big Stone County | +0.3 | R+29.6 | R+29.3 | 80.7% | 59.9% | 32.8% | 19.3% | 19.3% |
| Cass County | +0.2 | R+33.4 | R+33.2 | 23.9% | 20.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 76.1% |
| Grant County | −0.6 | R+30.6 | R+31.1 | 81.6% | 74.3% | 23.1% | 7.4% | 18.4% |
| Carver County | −1.6 | R+5.4 | R+7.0 | 50.3% | 22.8% | 14.1% | 26.0% | 49.3% |
| Traverse County | −1.6 | R+31.5 | R+33.2 | 64.5% | 42.5% | 26.6% | 22.0% | 35.5% |
Minnesota congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MN-01 | — | +12.3 | +6.4 | R+12.2 | D+0.1 | 58.1% | 15.3% | 19.5% |
| MN-02 | Little (D) | +8.3 | +4.1 | D+6.0 | D+14.3 | 48.8% | 12.6% | 24.5% |
| MN-03 | Morrison (D) | +6.5 | +3.6 | D+21.7 | D+28.2 | 43.1% | 11.0% | 18.2% |
| MN-04 | McCollum (D) | +9.8 | +6.8 | D+36.5 | D+46.3 | 39.3% | 7.7% | 19.3% |
| MN-05 | Omar (D) | −3.3 | +3.5 | D+63.5 | D+60.2 | 43.2% | 11.0% | 18.2% |
| MN-06 | Emmer (R) | +8.5 | +4.1 | R+20.1 | R+11.6 | 42.8% | 11.1% | 23.1% |
| MN-07 | Fischbach (R) | +7.2 | +3.8 | R+37.1 | R+29.9 | 59.5% | 16.5% | 19.5% |
| MN-08 | Stauber (R) | +8.3 | +5.2 | R+14.5 | R+6.2 | 37.6% | 9.5% | 13.4% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.