Which Mississippi counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- DeSoto County: +30.2
- Forrest County: +28.2
- Panola County: +27.2
- Jackson County: +25.2
- Harrison County: +25.2
Mississippi: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Mississippi move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Mississippi, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +23.0 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+22.9 in 2024, D+0.1 in 2026), counting all votes together. 82 of 82 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +18.9 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Mississippi
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Mississippi counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Yalobusha County: 95.0% Christian, Dem movement +22.8
- Simpson County: 88.9% Christian, Dem movement +17.6
- Clay County: 88.6% Christian, Dem movement +23.6
- Adams County: 85.6% Christian, Dem movement +14.1
- Lowndes County: 84.2% Christian, Dem movement +24.0
Mississippi counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSoto County | +30.2 | R+24.1 | D+6.1 | 51.4% | 46.3% | 34.1% | 3.8% | 48.6% |
| Forrest County | +28.2 | R+17.9 | D+10.3 | 71.1% | 62.0% | 48.6% | 6.0% | 28.6% |
| Panola County | +27.2 | R+14.8 | D+12.3 | 50.7% | 49.2% | 31.0% | 1.2% | 49.3% |
| Jackson County | +25.2 | R+39.9 | R+14.7 | 48.3% | 41.0% | 32.0% | 5.8% | 51.7% |
| Harrison County | +25.2 | R+28.9 | R+3.7 | 43.9% | 28.8% | 18.6% | 13.6% | 55.7% |
| Tate County | +24.4 | R+43.8 | R+19.4 | 59.7% | 56.4% | 44.2% | 0.9% | 40.3% |
| Lowndes County | +24.0 | R+8.2 | D+15.9 | 84.2% | 81.1% | 45.0% | 1.8% | 15.8% |
| Clay County | +23.6 | D+10.4 | D+34.0 | 88.6% | 86.5% | 44.7% | 1.0% | 11.4% |
| Jones County | +23.2 | R+46.8 | R+23.6 | 75.0% | 70.3% | 57.4% | 3.0% | 25.0% |
| Marshall County | +23.2 | R+7.3 | D+15.9 | 58.6% | 55.6% | 32.9% | 1.0% | 41.4% |
| Tallahatchie County | +23.1 | D+5.9 | D+29.0 | 40.3% | 39.0% | 27.4% | 0.2% | 59.7% |
| Wayne County | +23.0 | R+32.7 | R+9.7 | 60.5% | 59.1% | 50.5% | 0.5% | 39.5% |
| Benton County | +23.0 | R+31.4 | R+8.4 | 74.4% | 74.4% | 63.8% | 0.0% | 25.6% |
| Lamar County | +22.9 | R+48.8 | R+25.9 | 45.2% | 42.4% | 36.2% | 0.6% | 54.8% |
| Yalobusha County | +22.8 | R+20.9 | D+1.9 | 95.0% | 95.0% | 83.4% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
| Neshoba County | +22.7 | R+50.9 | R+28.2 | 58.3% | 54.4% | 42.4% | 2.8% | 41.7% |
| Monroe County | +22.5 | R+35.9 | R+13.4 | 53.1% | 51.0% | 38.1% | 0.9% | 46.9% |
| Lafayette County | +22.4 | R+21.8 | D+0.7 | 38.8% | 35.5% | 17.5% | 2.0% | 60.6% |
| Winston County | +22.4 | R+18.2 | D+4.1 | 69.4% | 68.0% | 51.8% | 0.3% | 30.6% |
| Perry County | +22.3 | R+60.4 | R+38.1 | 58.3% | 58.3% | 49.0% | 0.0% | 41.7% |
| Clarke County | +22.1 | R+35.2 | R+13.0 | 66.4% | 66.4% | 51.7% | 0.0% | 33.6% |
| Scott County | +21.7 | R+23.9 | R+2.2 | 65.7% | 63.2% | 53.9% | 0.4% | 34.3% |
| Yazoo County | +21.7 | R+2.4 | D+19.3 | 48.1% | 45.6% | 26.1% | 0.6% | 51.7% |
| Chickasaw County | +21.7 | R+13.7 | D+8.1 | 76.9% | 74.5% | 58.5% | 1.5% | 23.1% |
| Rankin County | +21.5 | R+47.1 | R+25.6 | 53.6% | 50.5% | 41.4% | 1.8% | 45.9% |
| Oktibbeha County | +21.4 | R+0.3 | D+21.1 | 47.5% | 43.9% | 27.3% | 2.2% | 51.6% |
| Lee County | +21.2 | R+38.8 | R+17.6 | 57.8% | 54.9% | 42.5% | 1.6% | 41.9% |
| Washington County | +21.2 | D+35.0 | D+56.2 | 75.3% | 69.8% | 42.9% | 3.6% | 24.4% |
| Calhoun County | +20.9 | R+48.0 | R+27.1 | 83.2% | 79.6% | 66.0% | 3.6% | 16.8% |
| Montgomery County | +20.7 | R+20.8 | R+0.1 | 82.0% | 80.0% | 58.8% | 0.6% | 18.0% |
| Pike County | +20.7 | R+3.5 | D+17.2 | 68.4% | 62.8% | 46.5% | 3.5% | 31.6% |
| Attala County | +20.7 | R+23.3 | R+2.6 | 56.8% | 55.9% | 45.1% | 0.9% | 43.1% |
| Quitman County | +20.6 | D+30.7 | D+51.3 | 60.6% | 57.9% | 34.7% | 0.0% | 39.4% |
| Pontotoc County | +20.5 | R+67.7 | R+47.2 | 66.3% | 64.3% | 58.8% | 0.9% | 33.7% |
| Marion County | +20.2 | R+41.6 | R+21.4 | 77.3% | 75.1% | 57.1% | 0.7% | 22.4% |
| Copiah County | +19.5 | R+6.1 | D+13.5 | 55.3% | 51.0% | 36.3% | 1.5% | 44.7% |
| Grenada County | +19.4 | R+16.3 | D+3.1 | 65.5% | 62.6% | 46.1% | 2.3% | 34.5% |
| Carroll County | +19.4 | R+44.3 | R+24.9 | 57.9% | 57.9% | 39.2% | 0.0% | 42.0% |
| Pearl River County | +19.2 | R+66.7 | R+47.5 | 63.0% | 54.6% | 44.5% | 6.9% | 37.0% |
| Leake County | +19.1 | R+23.4 | R+4.3 | 60.8% | 59.5% | 46.0% | 0.2% | 39.2% |
| Tippah County | +18.9 | R+67.1 | R+48.2 | 69.3% | 68.6% | 59.2% | 0.7% | 30.7% |
| Newton County | +18.9 | R+43.3 | R+24.4 | 53.0% | 51.8% | 45.5% | 0.5% | 47.0% |
| Jasper County | +18.8 | R+5.0 | D+13.8 | 46.6% | 44.7% | 33.4% | 0.1% | 53.4% |
| Walthall County | +18.6 | R+26.9 | R+8.4 | 48.0% | 47.0% | 40.8% | 1.1% | 52.0% |
| Stone County | +18.5 | R+58.0 | R+39.5 | 40.1% | 35.1% | 23.4% | 1.4% | 59.9% |
| Choctaw County | +18.4 | R+49.2 | R+30.9 | 59.9% | 59.9% | 49.8% | 0.0% | 40.1% |
| Prentiss County | +18.3 | R+66.0 | R+47.7 | 73.6% | 71.0% | 55.4% | 0.5% | 26.4% |
| Greene County | +18.0 | R+69.8 | R+51.8 | 32.3% | 30.5% | 24.1% | 0.2% | 67.7% |
| Madison County | +17.9 | R+17.3 | D+0.6 | 61.2% | 55.2% | 37.2% | 4.5% | 38.3% |
| Covington County | +17.8 | R+33.3 | R+15.4 | 59.6% | 56.8% | 47.0% | 0.0% | 40.4% |
| Simpson County | +17.6 | R+36.7 | R+19.1 | 88.9% | 86.0% | 72.3% | 0.5% | 11.1% |
| Union County | +17.6 | R+70.1 | R+52.5 | 82.9% | 79.7% | 66.3% | 2.4% | 17.1% |
| Bolivar County | +17.5 | D+23.7 | D+41.2 | 52.9% | 48.5% | 31.9% | 3.5% | 46.7% |
| Smith County | +17.4 | R+60.7 | R+43.3 | 45.0% | 45.0% | 39.9% | 0.0% | 55.0% |
| Hancock County | +17.4 | R+58.7 | R+41.3 | 28.9% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 71.1% |
| Warren County | +17.4 | R+4.0 | D+13.4 | 67.4% | 61.4% | 41.4% | 4.2% | 32.4% |
| Lawrence County | +17.2 | R+36.6 | R+19.4 | 59.8% | 59.6% | 51.3% | 0.2% | 40.2% |
| Jefferson Davis County | +17.2 | D+13.7 | D+30.9 | 50.9% | 47.0% | 31.3% | 2.0% | 48.8% |
| Coahoma County | +17.2 | D+39.8 | D+57.0 | 52.6% | 48.1% | 26.1% | 3.5% | 47.2% |
| Lauderdale County | +16.8 | R+21.2 | R+4.4 | 75.5% | 72.1% | 50.4% | 2.3% | 24.2% |
| Kemper County | +16.6 | D+16.9 | D+33.5 | 38.6% | 38.6% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 61.4% |
| Sunflower County | +16.3 | D+35.5 | D+51.8 | 39.7% | 38.2% | 19.8% | 0.9% | 60.3% |
| Franklin County | +16.0 | R+39.8 | R+23.8 | 68.0% | 68.0% | 58.1% | 0.0% | 32.0% |
| Webster County | +15.9 | R+65.2 | R+49.3 | 68.0% | 68.0% | 60.8% | 0.0% | 32.0% |
| Alcorn County | +15.6 | R+68.3 | R+52.8 | 72.8% | 69.4% | 59.0% | 1.5% | 27.2% |
| Humphreys County | +15.6 | D+41.9 | D+57.5 | 38.2% | 35.8% | 25.0% | 0.6% | 61.7% |
| Lincoln County | +15.3 | R+45.4 | R+30.0 | 68.4% | 65.3% | 56.6% | 1.5% | 31.6% |
| George County | +15.2 | R+78.8 | R+63.6 | 47.6% | 45.3% | 39.8% | 0.6% | 52.4% |
| Noxubee County | +15.1 | D+47.6 | D+62.6 | 45.5% | 44.6% | 26.9% | 0.9% | 54.4% |
| Amite County | +14.8 | R+32.8 | R+18.1 | 49.9% | 47.1% | 42.5% | 0.3% | 50.1% |
| Tishomingo County | +14.7 | R+78.9 | R+64.2 | 50.2% | 49.4% | 40.6% | 0.2% | 49.8% |
| Hinds County | +14.7 | D+46.1 | D+60.8 | 75.0% | 70.2% | 40.8% | 3.1% | 23.5% |
| Wilkinson County | +14.6 | D+25.3 | D+40.0 | 53.1% | 49.8% | 38.5% | 1.1% | 46.9% |
| Adams County | +14.1 | D+13.9 | D+28.1 | 85.6% | 78.5% | 37.4% | 5.2% | 13.8% |
| Itawamba County | +13.6 | R+80.0 | R+66.4 | 46.7% | 45.8% | 28.6% | 0.3% | 53.3% |
| Tunica County | +12.8 | D+38.9 | D+51.7 | 23.0% | 21.9% | 12.6% | 1.1% | 77.0% |
| Leflore County | +12.6 | D+38.5 | D+51.0 | 60.2% | 55.8% | 30.1% | 1.8% | 39.4% |
| Holmes County | +10.5 | D+62.1 | D+72.6 | 48.8% | 47.4% | 24.0% | 0.1% | 51.2% |
| Jefferson County | +9.0 | D+66.3 | D+75.2 | 36.9% | 29.7% | 9.5% | 1.3% | 63.0% |
| Claiborne County | +8.1 | D+67.5 | D+75.7 | 13.0% | 12.3% | 8.2% | 0.7% | 87.0% |
| Issaquena County | +5.4 | R+1.4 | D+4.0 | 15.8% | 15.8% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 84.2% |
| Sharkey County | +0.0 | D+36.8 | D+36.8 | 60.1% | 59.3% | 44.4% | 0.8% | 39.9% |
Mississippi congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MS-01 | Kelly (R) | +19.4 | +22.9 | R+37.5 | R+18.1 | 61.9% | 42.7% | 1.9% |
| MS-02 | Thompson (D) | +17.0 | +17.0 | D+20.6 | D+37.6 | 63.0% | 37.5% | 2.3% |
| MS-03 | Guest (R) | +12.8 | +19.2 | R+29.5 | R+16.8 | 61.2% | 43.9% | 2.0% |
| MS-04 | Ezell (R) | +17.7 | +23.4 | R+43.0 | R+25.3 | 51.0% | 32.6% | 7.2% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.