Which Missouri counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Scotland County: +27.9
- Linn County: +24.1
- St. Francois County: +22.0
- Daviess County: +21.6
- Jefferson County: +21.2
Missouri: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Missouri move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Missouri, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. House race shifted +17.8 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+18.4 in 2024, R+0.6 in 2026), counting all votes together. 115 of 115 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +14.9 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Missouri
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Missouri counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Mercer County: 80.4% Christian, Dem movement +11.0
- Linn County: 73.8% Christian, Dem movement +24.1
- Gentry County: 73.0% Christian, Dem movement +21.1
- Grundy County: 72.7% Christian, Dem movement +14.9
- Perry County: 69.9% Christian, Dem movement +11.2
Missouri counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. House; no Senate race) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland County | +27.9 | R+61.5 | R+33.6 | 61.7% | 60.2% | 47.8% | 1.6% | 38.3% |
| Linn County | +24.1 | R+57.2 | R+33.1 | 73.8% | 62.6% | 34.4% | 7.9% | 26.1% |
| St. Francois County | +22.0 | R+51.4 | R+29.4 | 37.8% | 31.5% | 27.8% | 5.0% | 62.2% |
| Daviess County | +21.6 | R+63.3 | R+41.7 | 64.9% | 56.7% | 44.0% | 1.2% | 35.1% |
| Jefferson County | +21.2 | R+36.7 | R+15.5 | 35.1% | 19.5% | 17.0% | 14.7% | 64.8% |
| Gentry County | +21.1 | R+61.8 | R+40.8 | 73.0% | 64.7% | 50.4% | 4.9% | 27.0% |
| Washington County | +20.8 | R+65.2 | R+44.4 | 34.1% | 24.1% | 17.0% | 9.3% | 65.9% |
| Ray County | +20.7 | R+48.7 | R+28.0 | 39.0% | 35.9% | 27.4% | 0.5% | 61.0% |
| Saline County | +20.6 | R+40.4 | R+19.9 | 48.7% | 36.7% | 28.4% | 10.2% | 51.2% |
| Chariton County | +20.1 | R+56.4 | R+36.2 | 61.0% | 37.6% | 23.7% | 23.4% | 39.0% |
| Clay County | +20.0 | R+5.7 | D+14.3 | 38.0% | 26.9% | 17.9% | 7.7% | 60.5% |
| Adair County | +19.5 | R+33.6 | R+14.1 | 41.3% | 31.9% | 22.6% | 5.1% | 58.7% |
| Clinton County | +19.5 | R+47.9 | R+28.4 | 44.7% | 32.8% | 19.2% | 4.8% | 55.3% |
| Buchanan County | +19.5 | R+28.0 | R+8.5 | 44.2% | 32.6% | 25.6% | 9.5% | 55.4% |
| Callaway County | +19.1 | R+43.3 | R+24.2 | 30.0% | 24.0% | 17.3% | 3.8% | 69.9% |
| DeKalb County | +19.1 | R+62.6 | R+43.5 | 25.5% | 22.0% | 15.8% | 1.8% | 74.5% |
| Boone County | +18.7 | D+9.8 | D+28.4 | 34.9% | 25.9% | 18.9% | 6.9% | 63.0% |
| Lincoln County | +18.6 | R+55.9 | R+37.3 | 29.1% | 13.0% | 9.2% | 15.6% | 70.9% |
| Holt County | +18.5 | R+69.1 | R+50.6 | 56.9% | 55.4% | 40.4% | 1.5% | 43.1% |
| Warren County | +18.3 | R+49.5 | R+31.2 | 37.6% | 23.4% | 17.4% | 12.1% | 62.4% |
| Jackson County | +18.3 | D+19.3 | D+37.6 | 48.1% | 36.4% | 24.0% | 9.4% | 48.8% |
| Nodaway County | +18.2 | R+43.7 | R+25.6 | 51.8% | 35.2% | 20.5% | 14.6% | 48.2% |
| Randolph County | +18.1 | R+52.2 | R+34.0 | 39.6% | 31.3% | 26.3% | 6.2% | 60.4% |
| Cass County | +17.8 | R+32.1 | R+14.3 | 30.4% | 24.9% | 20.3% | 4.5% | 69.6% |
| Livingston County | +17.8 | R+57.8 | R+40.0 | 56.9% | 49.6% | 38.4% | 7.4% | 43.0% |
| Franklin County | +17.8 | R+45.9 | R+28.1 | 50.9% | 25.9% | 20.2% | 22.9% | 49.1% |
| Howard County | +17.6 | R+44.3 | R+26.6 | 48.1% | 38.3% | 17.3% | 4.8% | 51.9% |
| Dunklin County | +17.5 | R+61.8 | R+44.3 | 43.2% | 39.4% | 34.1% | 2.4% | 56.8% |
| Iron County | +17.2 | R+62.4 | R+45.2 | 36.5% | 33.7% | 30.5% | 2.8% | 63.3% |
| Andrew County | +17.2 | R+51.8 | R+34.6 | 44.5% | 41.0% | 29.8% | 2.5% | 55.5% |
| Jasper County | +17.0 | R+46.8 | R+29.7 | 49.3% | 41.4% | 34.9% | 4.9% | 50.4% |
| Phelps County | +16.8 | R+42.9 | R+26.1 | 38.5% | 31.9% | 29.0% | 4.1% | 60.8% |
| Bates County | +16.6 | R+61.6 | R+45.0 | 43.9% | 43.1% | 32.4% | 0.8% | 56.1% |
| Greene County | +16.5 | R+20.8 | R+4.3 | 47.5% | 39.1% | 33.5% | 6.1% | 52.1% |
| Cooper County | +16.4 | R+45.8 | R+29.4 | 53.2% | 38.7% | 26.4% | 11.6% | 46.7% |
| Caldwell County | +16.3 | R+61.3 | R+45.0 | 53.8% | 39.3% | 25.3% | 1.2% | 46.2% |
| Pettis County | +16.3 | R+48.8 | R+32.4 | 52.6% | 44.1% | 33.5% | 6.9% | 47.4% |
| Johnson County | +16.2 | R+39.6 | R+23.3 | 28.9% | 24.5% | 20.2% | 3.3% | 70.7% |
| Cole County | +16.2 | R+34.4 | R+18.2 | 61.0% | 35.3% | 27.9% | 24.0% | 38.8% |
| Madison County | +16.0 | R+64.9 | R+49.0 | 52.6% | 48.2% | 42.5% | 2.3% | 47.4% |
| Crawford County | +15.9 | R+62.2 | R+46.2 | 29.7% | 26.2% | 21.7% | 2.2% | 70.2% |
| Monroe County | +15.9 | R+59.9 | R+43.9 | 65.6% | 47.4% | 32.8% | 18.2% | 34.4% |
| Worth County* | +15.9 | R+64.6 | R+48.7 | 146.8% | 146.8% | 139.7% | 0.0% | -46.8% |
| Ste. Genevieve County | +15.8 | R+45.0 | R+29.2 | 49.0% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 35.3% | 51.0% |
| St. Charles County | +15.8 | R+17.0 | R+1.2 | 49.0% | 20.4% | 14.5% | 27.0% | 50.4% |
| Pulaski County | +15.7 | R+50.3 | R+34.6 | 35.4% | 31.7% | 29.6% | 0.8% | 64.5% |
| Audrain County | +15.7 | R+47.6 | R+32.0 | 51.7% | 41.9% | 29.3% | 7.9% | 48.2% |
| Moniteau County | +15.4 | R+62.8 | R+47.3 | 48.3% | 38.7% | 31.4% | 8.7% | 51.7% |
| Sullivan County | +15.3 | R+66.1 | R+50.7 | 58.4% | 45.2% | 41.7% | 11.7% | 41.6% |
| Pike County | +15.3 | R+57.9 | R+42.7 | 46.1% | 37.8% | 32.0% | 7.4% | 53.9% |
| Schuyler County | +15.2 | R+64.5 | R+49.2 | 52.6% | 52.6% | 48.4% | 0.0% | 47.4% |
| Platte County | +15.2 | R+3.1 | D+12.1 | 28.3% | 15.1% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 71.7% |
| Montgomery County | +15.1 | R+60.1 | R+45.0 | 38.8% | 30.2% | 21.0% | 8.6% | 61.2% |
| Miller County | +15.0 | R+67.3 | R+52.3 | 51.7% | 29.9% | 26.9% | 20.2% | 48.3% |
| Lafayette County | +15.0 | R+48.9 | R+33.9 | 55.8% | 49.1% | 37.6% | 2.5% | 44.1% |
| Clark County | +15.0 | R+61.5 | R+46.5 | 34.6% | 31.4% | 17.1% | 3.1% | 65.4% |
| Grundy County | +14.9 | R+63.6 | R+48.7 | 72.7% | 69.0% | 56.4% | 1.5% | 27.3% |
| Harrison County | +14.9 | R+71.8 | R+56.9 | 51.3% | 49.5% | 41.1% | 0.8% | 48.7% |
| Putnam County | +14.8 | R+70.3 | R+55.5 | 52.5% | 49.6% | 45.9% | 3.0% | 47.5% |
| Scott County | +14.8 | R+58.9 | R+44.1 | 53.9% | 37.0% | 29.1% | 15.5% | 45.7% |
| Stoddard County | +14.7 | R+73.9 | R+59.2 | 33.1% | 31.2% | 26.4% | 1.9% | 66.9% |
| Ralls County | +14.7 | R+59.2 | R+44.6 | 33.0% | 30.7% | 21.8% | 2.3% | 67.0% |
| Barry County | +14.6 | R+63.5 | R+48.9 | 51.9% | 40.6% | 37.7% | 9.1% | 48.0% |
| Christian County | +14.4 | R+52.2 | R+37.9 | 68.2% | 64.6% | 60.9% | 1.5% | 31.5% |
| Pemiscot County | +14.3 | R+49.1 | R+34.8 | 62.7% | 61.8% | 50.9% | 0.9% | 37.3% |
| Vernon County | +14.3 | R+59.5 | R+45.2 | 43.8% | 40.0% | 32.9% | 2.8% | 56.2% |
| Dent County | +14.2 | R+70.2 | R+56.0 | 43.4% | 38.8% | 35.7% | 2.1% | 56.6% |
| Lawrence County | +14.2 | R+63.8 | R+49.6 | 52.7% | 45.6% | 41.4% | 3.8% | 47.3% |
| Osage County | +14.1 | R+73.1 | R+59.0 | 62.9% | 16.2% | 13.3% | 46.7% | 37.0% |
| Shelby County | +13.9 | R+65.6 | R+51.7 | 48.4% | 43.6% | 34.0% | 4.8% | 51.6% |
| McDonald County | +13.9 | R+68.8 | R+54.9 | 39.0% | 34.8% | 31.1% | 2.6% | 60.9% |
| Ripley County | +13.6 | R+73.0 | R+59.4 | 35.3% | 33.6% | 30.7% | 1.7% | 64.7% |
| Laclede County | +13.5 | R+66.8 | R+53.3 | 55.3% | 52.1% | 47.9% | 1.6% | 44.7% |
| Carroll County | +13.4 | R+64.5 | R+51.0 | 68.0% | 62.3% | 54.5% | 4.5% | 32.0% |
| Newton County | +13.4 | R+58.6 | R+45.3 | 49.7% | 44.6% | 39.5% | 1.9% | 50.3% |
| Webster County | +13.1 | R+62.2 | R+49.2 | 46.4% | 43.1% | 40.2% | 0.1% | 53.5% |
| Macon County | +13.0 | R+61.5 | R+48.5 | 64.1% | 61.1% | 50.5% | 1.6% | 35.9% |
| Shannon County | +12.8 | R+68.2 | R+55.4 | 31.3% | 30.9% | 27.8% | 0.3% | 68.7% |
| Lewis County | +12.6 | R+60.1 | R+47.5 | 46.9% | 44.7% | 37.6% | 2.1% | 53.1% |
| Butler County | +12.5 | R+63.8 | R+51.2 | 39.7% | 34.9% | 29.3% | 3.1% | 60.3% |
| Marion County | +12.3 | R+52.9 | R+40.6 | 48.0% | 36.6% | 29.4% | 9.7% | 52.0% |
| Knox County | +12.0 | R+64.5 | R+52.5 | 65.0% | 54.7% | 44.8% | 10.3% | 35.0% |
| Henry County | +12.0 | R+52.6 | R+40.6 | 49.3% | 43.3% | 34.5% | 4.8% | 50.6% |
| Gasconade County | +11.9 | R+60.2 | R+48.3 | 51.7% | 36.9% | 25.1% | 14.7% | 48.3% |
| Dallas County | +11.8 | R+64.6 | R+52.7 | 42.6% | 33.7% | 27.7% | 5.0% | 57.4% |
| Atchison County | +11.8 | R+59.8 | R+48.0 | 39.6% | 37.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 60.3% |
| Polk County | +11.8 | R+61.6 | R+49.9 | 39.4% | 35.5% | 28.6% | 1.3% | 60.6% |
| Howell County | +11.7 | R+66.8 | R+55.0 | 41.2% | 35.7% | 33.2% | 1.8% | 58.3% |
| Reynolds County | +11.7 | R+68.3 | R+56.6 | 60.1% | 59.7% | 55.7% | 0.4% | 39.9% |
| Texas County | +11.6 | R+71.7 | R+60.1 | 52.8% | 49.4% | 46.6% | 1.0% | 47.2% |
| Benton County | +11.4 | R+59.1 | R+47.6 | 46.7% | 44.6% | 36.7% | 1.3% | 53.3% |
| Taney County | +11.3 | R+59.3 | R+48.0 | 43.2% | 38.7% | 37.0% | 1.0% | 56.8% |
| New Madrid County | +11.3 | R+53.5 | R+42.2 | 56.9% | 52.4% | 46.3% | 4.5% | 43.1% |
| Perry County | +11.2 | R+63.4 | R+52.2 | 69.9% | 27.0% | 26.0% | 42.1% | 30.1% |
| Oregon County | +11.2 | R+69.1 | R+57.9 | 59.6% | 56.9% | 52.2% | 1.1% | 40.4% |
| Camden County | +11.2 | R+54.3 | R+43.1 | 40.5% | 35.6% | 31.2% | 3.7% | 59.5% |
| Morgan County | +11.1 | R+59.7 | R+48.6 | 42.1% | 37.2% | 31.1% | 4.3% | 57.9% |
| Cape Girardeau County | +11.1 | R+46.5 | R+35.4 | 58.2% | 44.6% | 33.2% | 11.9% | 41.5% |
| Mercer County | +11.0 | R+73.1 | R+62.1 | 80.4% | 78.0% | 71.7% | 2.4% | 19.6% |
| Cedar County | +10.5 | R+69.6 | R+59.1 | 39.1% | 30.1% | 27.5% | 6.6% | 60.9% |
| St. Clair County | +10.3 | R+60.6 | R+50.3 | 50.8% | 48.6% | 43.9% | 2.2% | 49.2% |
| St. Louis County | +9.9 | D+23.4 | D+33.3 | 48.0% | 21.0% | 13.1% | 25.6% | 49.3% |
| Maries County | +9.7 | R+67.5 | R+57.8 | 44.1% | 36.6% | 30.1% | 7.5% | 55.8% |
| Dade County | +9.3 | R+67.1 | R+57.8 | 58.4% | 57.7% | 53.2% | 0.6% | 41.6% |
| Carter County | +9.2 | R+74.2 | R+65.0 | 43.8% | 40.4% | 37.0% | 1.0% | 56.2% |
| St. Louis city | +8.6 | D+64.7 | D+73.3 | 68.6% | 49.5% | 20.9% | 16.5% | 20.2% |
| Wayne County | +8.6 | R+72.6 | R+64.0 | 33.0% | 31.9% | 24.0% | 1.0% | 67.0% |
| Ozark County | +8.6 | R+70.0 | R+61.5 | 27.8% | 25.1% | 22.2% | 1.0% | 72.2% |
| Bollinger County | +8.5 | R+74.8 | R+66.3 | 42.9% | 31.6% | 23.7% | 11.3% | 57.1% |
| Hickory County | +7.6 | R+61.1 | R+53.5 | 33.2% | 31.8% | 28.7% | 1.4% | 66.8% |
| Stone County | +6.9 | R+61.4 | R+54.5 | 33.2% | 24.1% | 19.6% | 6.9% | 66.8% |
| Douglas County | +6.9 | R+72.0 | R+65.1 | 30.9% | 27.6% | 25.7% | 1.5% | 69.0% |
| Barton County | +6.8 | R+72.2 | R+65.3 | 62.9% | 58.6% | 44.2% | 1.5% | 37.1% |
| Wright County | +5.8 | R+75.7 | R+69.8 | 65.4% | 62.6% | 59.9% | 1.0% | 34.6% |
| Mississippi County | +5.1 | R+53.7 | R+48.6 | 46.6% | 44.5% | 32.5% | 2.1% | 53.4% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 1 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
Missouri congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO-01 | Bell (D) | +9.4 | +9.4 | D+58.2 | D+67.5 | 55.5% | 15.9% | 22.3% |
| MO-02 | Wellman (D) | +12.6 | +11.8 | R+7.7 | D+4.9 | 48.2% | 14.2% | 25.1% |
| MO-03 | Onder (R) | +18.9 | +16.7 | R+27.4 | R+8.5 | 45.3% | 18.6% | 19.0% |
| MO-04 | Alford (R) | +17.1 | +15.4 | R+42.5 | R+25.4 | 41.5% | 28.0% | 4.6% |
| MO-05 | Cleaver (D) | +18.3 | +18.6 | D+23.1 | D+41.4 | 46.1% | 22.8% | 9.1% |
| MO-06 | Stigall (R) | +19.5 | +17.6 | R+39.3 | R+19.7 | 42.5% | 23.7% | 8.1% |
| MO-07 | Burlison (R) | +16.3 | +14.9 | R+43.1 | R+26.8 | 49.9% | 38.0% | 4.5% |
| MO-08 | Smith (R) | +16.2 | +15.1 | R+54.8 | R+38.6 | 44.1% | 28.9% | 9.1% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.