In Montana, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +21.4 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+19.9 in 2024, D+1.5 in 2026), counting all votes together. 56 of 56 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +19.5 points.
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate; independent counted as Democratic side) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver Bow County | +26.4 | D+7.0 | D+33.4 | 43.5% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 31.8% | 56.2% |
| Liberty County | +26.1 | R+54.5 | R+28.3 | 85.7% | 60.6% | 51.9% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Big Horn County | +24.9 | R+1.7 | D+23.2 | 37.5% | 14.2% | 9.7% | 20.8% | 62.4% |
| Judith Basin County | +24.6 | R+58.1 | R+33.5 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 5.8% | 14.0% | 74.6% |
| Sweet Grass County | +24.5 | R+53.1 | R+28.6 | 27.9% | 18.2% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 72.1% |
| Cascade County | +24.4 | R+22.4 | D+2.1 | 37.7% | 24.9% | 20.2% | 7.2% | 62.2% |
| Deer Lodge County | +24.2 | D+1.0 | D+25.2 | 34.8% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 24.5% | 65.1% |
| Granite County | +23.6 | R+44.0 | R+20.4 | 22.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 10.8% | 77.4% |
| Valley County | +23.6 | R+51.1 | R+27.5 | 28.1% | 17.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 71.9% |
| Missoula County | +23.3 | D+21.4 | D+44.7 | 26.0% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 73.2% |
| Lewis and Clark County | +22.9 | R+5.7 | D+17.2 | 34.4% | 16.5% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 65.2% |
| Gallatin County | +22.7 | D+3.2 | D+25.9 | 27.9% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 70.5% |
| Mineral County | +22.7 | R+48.0 | R+25.3 | 23.6% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 5.0% | 76.3% |
| Fergus County | +22.7 | R+51.3 | R+28.6 | 37.0% | 26.1% | 18.2% | 7.9% | 63.0% |
| Hill County | +22.5 | R+18.2 | D+4.3 | 30.8% | 19.2% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 69.1% |
| Park County | +22.2 | R+7.7 | D+14.5 | 31.2% | 19.3% | 12.6% | 7.1% | 68.8% |
| Yellowstone County | +21.9 | R+27.1 | R+5.2 | 33.5% | 19.4% | 14.2% | 7.8% | 66.4% |
| Broadwater County | +21.9 | R+60.0 | R+38.1 | 14.4% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 85.5% |
| Powder River County | +21.8 | R+75.2 | R+53.4 | 20.7% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 10.1% | 79.2% |
| Carbon County | +21.6 | R+32.4 | R+10.8 | 23.0% | 13.0% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 76.9% |
| Madison County | +21.5 | R+45.3 | R+23.8 | 24.9% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 75.1% |
| Jefferson County | +20.6 | R+36.5 | R+15.9 | 27.7% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 72.3% |
| Stillwater County | +20.6 | R+61.7 | R+41.1 | 33.3% | 23.4% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 66.7% |
| Glacier County | +20.2 | D+19.6 | D+39.8 | 80.6% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 62.4% | 19.3% |
| Roosevelt County | +20.1 | R+9.6 | D+10.5 | 40.9% | 19.5% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 59.0% |
| Dawson County | +20.1 | R+58.9 | R+38.8 | 72.9% | 60.1% | 49.3% | 9.3% | 27.1% |
| Ravalli County | +20.0 | R+40.6 | R+20.6 | 28.1% | 16.6% | 12.9% | 3.7% | 71.6% |
| Prairie County | +19.5 | R+61.6 | R+42.1 | 25.4% | 20.8% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 74.6% |
| Wheatland County | +19.5 | R+58.4 | R+38.9 | 68.5% | 41.5% | 34.2% | 16.9% | 31.5% |
| Garfield County | +19.2 | R+89.6 | R+70.4 | 48.3% | 19.7% | 13.0% | 10.7% | 51.7% |
| Richland County | +19.2 | R+68.0 | R+48.8 | 37.6% | 25.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% | 62.3% |
| Powell County | +18.9 | R+53.5 | R+34.6 | 30.3% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 69.6% |
| Chouteau County | +18.9 | R+32.2 | R+13.3 | 42.0% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 27.3% | 58.0% |
| Teton County | +18.7 | R+45.0 | R+26.3 | 76.7% | 35.5% | 22.5% | 31.7% | 23.3% |
| Custer County | +18.5 | R+48.7 | R+30.2 | 39.7% | 20.4% | 16.8% | 16.5% | 60.3% |
| Musselshell County | +18.5 | R+71.5 | R+53.0 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 75.4% |
| Beaverhead County | +17.8 | R+43.4 | R+25.6 | 45.8% | 18.2% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 54.1% |
| Sheridan County | +17.6 | R+42.5 | R+24.9 | 43.2% | 27.0% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 56.8% |
| Pondera County | +17.5 | R+41.7 | R+24.2 | 59.7% | 28.3% | 24.2% | 27.8% | 40.2% |
| Meagher County | +17.3 | R+53.9 | R+36.7 | 37.3% | 19.8% | 11.7% | 6.5% | 62.7% |
| Flathead County | +17.2 | R+33.8 | R+16.5 | 36.9% | 26.3% | 23.5% | 5.0% | 63.0% |
| Lake County | +16.8 | R+19.9 | R+3.1 | 29.4% | 11.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 70.5% |
| Toole County | +16.8 | R+56.5 | R+39.8 | 49.5% | 36.9% | 14.2% | 5.9% | 50.5% |
| McCone County | +16.7 | R+74.1 | R+57.4 | 43.8% | 35.1% | 17.8% | 8.7% | 56.2% |
| Golden Valley County | +16.5 | R+72.4 | R+55.9 | 26.0% | 20.9% | 16.6% | 5.1% | 74.0% |
| Rosebud County | +16.3 | R+37.1 | R+20.8 | 67.1% | 19.4% | 17.6% | 39.8% | 32.7% |
| Fallon County | +16.2 | R+75.7 | R+59.5 | 55.5% | 40.9% | 8.9% | 14.6% | 44.5% |
| Daniels County | +15.7 | R+65.6 | R+49.9 | 42.1% | 23.5% | 22.2% | 18.5% | 57.9% |
| Sanders County | +15.6 | R+55.1 | R+39.5 | 27.4% | 16.6% | 14.6% | 4.0% | 72.6% |
| Phillips County | +14.4 | R+62.5 | R+48.1 | 39.6% | 27.4% | 10.3% | 7.2% | 60.4% |
| Wibaux County | +14.2 | R+71.8 | R+57.6 | 54.0% | 26.3% | 15.8% | 27.7% | 46.0% |
| Carter County | +14.1 | R+80.2 | R+66.1 | 47.6% | 29.9% | 20.6% | 2.9% | 52.4% |
| Blaine County | +14.1 | R+5.9 | D+8.2 | 43.3% | 19.3% | 12.1% | 21.0% | 56.6% |
| Petroleum County | +12.6 | R+76.2 | R+63.6 | 7.5% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 92.5% |
| Lincoln County | +12.5 | R+53.4 | R+40.9 | 30.5% | 20.9% | 17.7% | 1.9% | 69.4% |
| Treasure County | +9.8 | R+70.1 | R+60.4 | 44.2% | 18.5% | 11.5% | 25.7% | 55.8% |
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT-01 | — | +14.7 | +20.6 | R+11.9 | D+2.8 | 31.6% | 12.9% | 9.6% |
| MT-02 | Downing (R) | +4.5 | +21.7 | R+30.5 | R+26.0 | 36.2% | 14.3% | 10.0% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.