Which Nebraska counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Colfax County: +23.9
- Saline County: +23.5
- Box Butte County: +23.1
- Dawson County: +21.8
- Pawnee County: +21.7
Nebraska: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Nebraska move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Nebraska, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +14.1 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+20.6 in 2024, R+6.4 in 2026), counting all votes together. 93 of 93 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +13.5 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Nebraska
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Nebraska counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Garfield County: 93.4% Christian, Dem movement +10.8
- Cedar County: 90.9% Christian, Dem movement +10.5
- Boyd County: 88.9% Christian, Dem movement +9.7
- Boone County: 88.4% Christian, Dem movement +12.9
- Thayer County: 85.6% Christian, Dem movement +13.0
Nebraska counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate; independent counted as Democratic side) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colfax County | +23.9 | R+50.9 | R+27.1 | 64.1% | 12.5% | 4.7% | 51.6% | 35.9% |
| Saline County | +23.5 | R+33.2 | R+9.7 | 47.1% | 31.4% | 14.3% | 15.7% | 52.8% |
| Box Butte County | +23.1 | R+56.5 | R+33.3 | 50.4% | 24.7% | 12.4% | 22.7% | 49.6% |
| Dawson County | +21.8 | R+49.6 | R+27.8 | 54.3% | 30.3% | 11.7% | 21.9% | 45.4% |
| Pawnee County | +21.7 | R+58.1 | R+36.4 | 42.4% | 35.9% | 18.4% | 6.5% | 57.5% |
| Scotts Bluff County | +19.3 | R+47.7 | R+28.4 | 47.2% | 28.4% | 20.1% | 15.3% | 52.8% |
| Hitchcock County | +18.8 | R+78.0 | R+59.2 | 52.6% | 43.8% | 22.1% | 8.8% | 47.4% |
| Johnson County | +18.4 | R+40.5 | R+22.1 | 39.2% | 27.4% | 16.5% | 11.8% | 60.3% |
| Hall County | +17.9 | R+37.8 | R+19.9 | 45.3% | 22.4% | 13.2% | 21.3% | 54.5% |
| Perkins County | +17.6 | R+72.7 | R+55.2 | 46.9% | 39.7% | 22.2% | 7.1% | 53.1% |
| Gage County | +17.4 | R+39.2 | R+21.9 | 61.3% | 52.1% | 19.3% | 7.2% | 38.7% |
| Dawes County | +17.3 | R+47.0 | R+29.8 | 41.2% | 25.9% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 58.8% |
| Dodge County | +17.1 | R+32.6 | R+15.5 | 53.1% | 30.0% | 15.8% | 21.3% | 46.9% |
| Greeley County* | +17.1 | R+67.8 | R+50.8 | 110.9% | 42.4% | 19.1% | 68.6% | -10.9% |
| Dakota County | +16.9 | R+29.8 | R+13.0 | 41.4% | 15.7% | 8.4% | 25.7% | 57.9% |
| Otoe County | +16.8 | R+38.9 | R+22.1 | 49.5% | 32.3% | 2.8% | 14.0% | 50.5% |
| Sherman County | +16.6 | R+60.2 | R+43.6 | 75.9% | 20.5% | 13.6% | 55.4% | 24.1% |
| Wayne County | +16.2 | R+49.2 | R+33.0 | 64.3% | 52.7% | 19.9% | 11.6% | 35.6% |
| Buffalo County | +16.1 | R+44.9 | R+28.8 | 52.0% | 30.9% | 14.7% | 19.6% | 48.0% |
| Sarpy County | +16.1 | R+11.7 | D+4.4 | 31.4% | 14.6% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 68.5% |
| Jefferson County | +15.8 | R+45.3 | R+29.5 | 63.7% | 59.4% | 32.9% | 4.3% | 36.3% |
| Nance County | +15.7 | R+60.4 | R+44.7 | 59.4% | 21.7% | 6.1% | 37.6% | 40.6% |
| Cass County | +15.7 | R+37.2 | R+21.6 | 26.6% | 18.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 72.4% |
| Merrick County | +15.6 | R+65.0 | R+49.3 | 48.1% | 38.6% | 13.3% | 9.5% | 51.9% |
| Dundy County | +15.5 | R+78.9 | R+63.4 | 58.8% | 52.5% | 2.8% | 6.3% | 41.2% |
| Burt County | +15.4 | R+45.1 | R+29.7 | 45.6% | 35.7% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 54.4% |
| Kimball County | +15.4 | R+67.0 | R+51.5 | 43.8% | 26.8% | 10.8% | 13.6% | 56.2% |
| Cheyenne County | +15.3 | R+64.1 | R+48.8 | 45.1% | 25.1% | 9.0% | 15.7% | 54.8% |
| Platte County | +15.3 | R+58.3 | R+43.1 | 72.1% | 27.9% | 19.2% | 41.8% | 27.9% |
| Nemaha County | +15.2 | R+44.7 | R+29.5 | 46.2% | 39.4% | 14.6% | 6.8% | 53.7% |
| Saunders County | +15.2 | R+46.4 | R+31.2 | 44.6% | 21.2% | 5.1% | 22.7% | 55.4% |
| Fillmore County | +15.2 | R+54.9 | R+39.7 | 62.8% | 48.4% | 9.2% | 14.4% | 37.2% |
| Adams County | +15.2 | R+41.6 | R+26.5 | 49.0% | 33.2% | 21.6% | 13.8% | 50.9% |
| Lancaster County | +15.1 | D+4.3 | D+19.4 | 43.6% | 28.7% | 15.5% | 13.2% | 55.8% |
| Lincoln County | +14.9 | R+55.2 | R+40.3 | 25.8% | 21.8% | 12.3% | 0.8% | 74.2% |
| Madison County | +14.8 | R+56.0 | R+41.1 | 68.2% | 43.3% | 35.9% | 22.8% | 31.8% |
| Chase County | +14.7 | R+77.4 | R+62.6 | 58.3% | 41.9% | 28.0% | 16.4% | 41.7% |
| Richardson County | +14.6 | R+51.5 | R+36.9 | 51.2% | 37.1% | 14.2% | 12.8% | 48.7% |
| Red Willow County | +14.5 | R+68.4 | R+54.0 | 52.4% | 31.5% | 16.2% | 17.4% | 47.6% |
| Stanton County | +14.3 | R+66.7 | R+52.5 | 29.8% | 21.0% | 12.3% | 8.8% | 70.2% |
| Arthur County | +14.1 | R+87.6 | R+73.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Wheeler County | +13.9 | R+75.5 | R+61.6 | 30.7% | 21.8% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 69.3% |
| Hamilton County | +13.8 | R+60.4 | R+46.6 | 62.0% | 50.8% | 20.3% | 8.9% | 37.8% |
| Seward County | +13.7 | R+46.6 | R+32.9 | 66.6% | 51.5% | 37.3% | 11.6% | 33.4% |
| Furnas County | +13.7 | R+69.8 | R+56.1 | 76.1% | 68.1% | 31.0% | 8.1% | 23.9% |
| Washington County | +13.6 | R+42.4 | R+28.8 | 46.6% | 33.8% | 15.3% | 10.3% | 53.4% |
| Morrill County | +13.5 | R+68.4 | R+54.9 | 51.0% | 34.3% | 23.0% | 15.6% | 48.9% |
| Butler County | +13.4 | R+59.6 | R+46.2 | 56.7% | 17.1% | 9.0% | 39.5% | 43.3% |
| Holt County | +13.3 | R+74.0 | R+60.7 | 83.2% | 40.7% | 26.4% | 39.7% | 16.8% |
| York County | +13.3 | R+51.4 | R+38.1 | 62.9% | 52.9% | 35.0% | 9.5% | 37.1% |
| Keith County | +13.1 | R+63.9 | R+50.9 | 53.9% | 30.2% | 12.5% | 21.9% | 46.1% |
| Thayer County | +13.0 | R+60.8 | R+47.8 | 85.6% | 77.3% | 38.3% | 8.3% | 14.4% |
| Sheridan County | +13.0 | R+70.0 | R+57.1 | 61.7% | 41.0% | 24.4% | 14.6% | 38.1% |
| Sioux County | +12.9 | R+76.7 | R+63.8 | 39.2% | 27.7% | 15.9% | 11.5% | 60.7% |
| Boone County | +12.9 | R+66.1 | R+53.2 | 88.4% | 40.5% | 4.9% | 47.9% | 11.6% |
| Clay County | +12.8 | R+63.4 | R+50.7 | 50.7% | 38.9% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 49.3% |
| Thomas County | +12.7 | R+77.3 | R+64.7 | 49.8% | 31.5% | 14.8% | 18.2% | 50.2% |
| Valley County | +12.6 | R+63.9 | R+51.3 | 59.8% | 30.2% | 13.0% | 29.6% | 40.2% |
| Phelps County | +12.6 | R+68.5 | R+55.9 | 38.1% | 28.0% | 15.6% | 6.6% | 61.9% |
| Antelope County | +12.5 | R+76.5 | R+64.0 | 70.7% | 47.5% | 30.7% | 23.2% | 29.3% |
| Polk County | +12.1 | R+63.7 | R+51.6 | 51.5% | 35.1% | 9.2% | 16.4% | 48.5% |
| Garden County | +12.0 | R+70.5 | R+58.5 | 47.0% | 33.5% | 13.6% | 13.5% | 53.0% |
| Hooker County* | +11.9 | R+73.5 | R+61.6 | 116.6% | 65.8% | 24.2% | 20.0% | -16.6% |
| Webster County | +11.8 | R+65.4 | R+53.6 | 43.5% | 40.0% | 22.3% | 1.7% | 56.5% |
| Nuckolls County | +11.7 | R+63.6 | R+52.0 | 59.2% | 42.4% | 21.8% | 16.8% | 40.7% |
| Cherry County | +11.6 | R+76.2 | R+64.5 | 48.5% | 25.9% | 16.2% | 18.6% | 51.4% |
| Pierce County | +11.6 | R+76.3 | R+64.7 | 75.1% | 57.4% | 39.5% | 17.7% | 24.8% |
| Custer County | +11.6 | R+72.3 | R+60.7 | 55.3% | 35.6% | 12.6% | 16.0% | 44.7% |
| Howard County | +11.6 | R+62.7 | R+51.1 | 60.9% | 23.3% | 11.6% | 37.6% | 39.1% |
| Frontier County | +11.5 | R+72.9 | R+61.4 | 56.6% | 54.8% | 13.7% | 1.8% | 43.3% |
| Brown County | +11.4 | R+74.7 | R+63.3 | 60.2% | 47.0% | 25.6% | 11.4% | 39.8% |
| Kearney County | +11.4 | R+58.0 | R+46.7 | 50.3% | 41.0% | 12.5% | 9.2% | 49.7% |
| Douglas County | +10.9 | D+10.2 | D+21.1 | 48.5% | 21.3% | 11.3% | 24.8% | 48.6% |
| Garfield County | +10.8 | R+76.5 | R+65.8 | 93.4% | 71.7% | 39.4% | 21.7% | 6.6% |
| Harlan County | +10.8 | R+68.0 | R+57.2 | 38.6% | 31.9% | 14.5% | 6.7% | 61.4% |
| Cedar County | +10.5 | R+70.0 | R+59.5 | 90.9% | 32.5% | 7.0% | 58.4% | 9.0% |
| Logan County | +10.5 | R+87.3 | R+76.8 | 81.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 81.4% | 18.6% |
| Rock County | +10.5 | R+79.1 | R+68.7 | 46.3% | 38.4% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 53.7% |
| Hayes County | +10.4 | R+91.7 | R+81.2 | 38.9% | 38.9% | 20.3% | 0.0% | 61.1% |
| Dixon County | +10.3 | R+58.6 | R+48.4 | 69.2% | 55.2% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 30.8% |
| Banner County | +10.0 | R+81.3 | R+71.3 | 17.7% | 17.7% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 82.3% |
| Knox County | +9.7 | R+63.3 | R+53.6 | 77.9% | 42.8% | 15.1% | 35.1% | 22.0% |
| Boyd County | +9.7 | R+75.0 | R+65.3 | 88.9% | 53.8% | 34.8% | 35.1% | 11.1% |
| McPherson County | +9.7 | R+90.1 | R+80.4 | 33.6% | 33.6% | 11.5% | 0.0% | 66.4% |
| Cuming County | +8.9 | R+60.0 | R+51.2 | 83.5% | 40.8% | 27.4% | 42.7% | 16.5% |
| Deuel County | +8.6 | R+68.4 | R+59.8 | 48.8% | 36.8% | 14.7% | 12.0% | 51.2% |
| Gosper County | +8.5 | R+63.0 | R+54.5 | 50.1% | 44.1% | 33.4% | 6.0% | 49.9% |
| Loup County | +8.4 | R+65.7 | R+57.2 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% | 96.5% |
| Franklin County | +7.7 | R+69.7 | R+62.0 | 68.4% | 64.0% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 31.5% |
| Keya Paha County | +7.5 | R+83.8 | R+76.3 | 67.9% | 67.9% | 51.0% | 0.0% | 32.1% |
| Grant County | +7.2 | R+91.8 | R+84.6 | 65.8% | 44.2% | 37.2% | 21.6% | 33.9% |
| Thurston County | +4.7 | R+6.9 | R+2.2 | 39.8% | 33.1% | 13.1% | 6.7% | 59.8% |
| Blaine County | +4.5 | R+73.2 | R+68.6 | 58.7% | 58.7% | 48.5% | 0.0% | 41.3% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 2 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
Nebraska congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE-01 | Flood (R) | +9.1 | +15.3 | R+13.2 | R+4.1 | 44.7% | 15.7% | 16.4% |
| NE-02 | Powell (D) | +10.7 | +11.6 | D+4.7 | D+15.4 | 46.7% | 10.9% | 23.6% |
| NE-03 | Smith (R) | +3.5 | +15.2 | R+54.4 | R+51.0 | 53.4% | 16.5% | 16.5% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.