Which New Mexico counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Guadalupe County: +36.7
- Luna County: +32.8
- McKinley County: +32.8
- Mora County: +28.1
- Socorro County: +27.9
New Mexico: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did New Mexico move toward Democrats in 2026?
In New Mexico, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +20.3 points from Harris's 2024 margin (D+6.0 in 2024, D+26.3 in 2026), counting all votes together. 33 of 33 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +18.6 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in New Mexico
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which New Mexico counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Quay County: 89.8% Christian, Dem movement +16.7
- Mora County: 84.9% Christian, Dem movement +28.1
- San Miguel County: 81.9% Christian, Dem movement +24.3
- Rio Arriba County: 78.0% Christian, Dem movement +27.2
- Taos County: 75.6% Christian, Dem movement +18.1
New Mexico counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalupe County | +36.7 | D+0.7 | D+37.4 | 57.7% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 52.0% | 42.3% |
| Luna County | +32.8 | R+18.9 | D+13.9 | 64.0% | 16.2% | 13.3% | 39.9% | 35.7% |
| McKinley County | +32.8 | D+24.5 | D+57.3 | 25.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 73.5% |
| Mora County | +28.1 | D+17.2 | D+45.4 | 84.9% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 76.2% | 15.1% |
| Socorro County | +27.9 | R+3.7 | D+24.2 | 39.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 28.0% | 60.6% |
| Cibola County | +27.3 | D+1.6 | D+28.8 | 52.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 37.9% | 46.6% |
| Rio Arriba County | +27.2 | D+19.4 | D+46.6 | 78.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 64.9% | 20.8% |
| Hidalgo County | +26.9 | R+23.4 | D+3.5 | 65.9% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 20.5% | 33.8% |
| Doña Ana County | +25.5 | D+9.8 | D+35.3 | 36.1% | 12.4% | 9.8% | 19.3% | 62.7% |
| San Miguel County | +24.3 | D+27.9 | D+52.2 | 81.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 74.5% | 18.1% |
| Lea County | +23.5 | R+61.6 | R+38.1 | 45.7% | 24.2% | 20.7% | 18.8% | 54.1% |
| Valencia County | +22.7 | R+16.4 | D+6.4 | 49.4% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 35.3% | 50.6% |
| San Juan County | +21.8 | R+31.7 | R+9.9 | 40.1% | 17.8% | 15.7% | 10.7% | 59.8% |
| Colfax County | +21.6 | R+14.0 | D+7.6 | 47.3% | 13.7% | 9.4% | 27.6% | 52.7% |
| Grant County | +20.1 | D+5.1 | D+25.2 | 47.3% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 28.7% | 43.3% |
| Chaves County | +18.6 | R+44.8 | R+26.2 | 47.6% | 23.5% | 21.1% | 19.8% | 52.3% |
| Curry County | +18.6 | R+42.6 | R+24.0 | 53.2% | 26.2% | 22.4% | 24.2% | 45.8% |
| Torrance County | +18.5 | R+38.1 | R+19.7 | 61.8% | 11.4% | 10.3% | 40.3% | 38.0% |
| Otero County | +18.3 | R+27.0 | R+8.7 | 31.7% | 16.8% | 13.4% | 10.9% | 67.6% |
| Taos County | +18.1 | D+47.5 | D+65.6 | 75.6% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 66.4% | 13.5% |
| Eddy County | +17.0 | R+55.9 | R+38.9 | 52.3% | 26.0% | 21.0% | 21.4% | 47.6% |
| Union County | +16.9 | R+52.2 | R+35.3 | 70.1% | 20.7% | 11.1% | 48.0% | 29.9% |
| Bernalillo County | +16.8 | D+21.0 | D+37.9 | 52.3% | 18.4% | 15.2% | 30.8% | 45.0% |
| Quay County | +16.7 | R+40.9 | R+24.2 | 89.8% | 47.6% | 44.1% | 38.7% | 10.1% |
| Sierra County | +16.7 | R+19.2 | R+2.5 | 37.2% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 20.0% | 62.7% |
| Catron County | +15.5 | R+50.1 | R+34.6 | 48.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 24.6% | 51.9% |
| Harding County* | +15.3 | R+39.2 | R+23.9 | 85.8% | 10.5% | 4.3% | 75.3% | -56.3% |
| Roosevelt County | +15.1 | R+43.2 | R+28.1 | 56.6% | 24.5% | 23.1% | 26.9% | 40.8% |
| Santa Fe County | +15.1 | D+48.9 | D+64.0 | 60.2% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 50.0% | 27.9% |
| Sandoval County | +13.2 | D+5.8 | D+19.0 | 54.3% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 39.1% | 45.5% |
| Lincoln County | +12.6 | R+38.5 | R+25.9 | 46.5% | 20.6% | 16.1% | 22.0% | 53.3% |
| De Baca County* | +12.0 | R+50.7 | R+38.6 | 132.4% | 65.9% | 57.4% | 53.2% | -32.4% |
| Los Alamos County | +9.7 | D+30.2 | D+39.9 | 52.9% | 23.6% | 10.6% | 21.4% | 45.1% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 2 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
New Mexico congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NM-01 | Stansbury (D) | +14.1 | +16.3 | D+13.0 | D+27.1 | 53.0% | 13.4% | 33.0% |
| NM-02 | Vasquez (D) | +19.2 | +21.7 | R+1.8 | D+17.4 | 44.3% | 12.0% | 24.9% |
| NM-03 | Leger Fernandez (D) | +17.7 | +19.6 | D+5.3 | D+23.0 | 54.7% | 11.5% | 35.4% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.