Which North Carolina counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Yancey County: +28.1
- Johnston County: +27.6
- Lee County: +27.6
- Hoke County: +27.2
- Madison County: +27.1
North Carolina: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did North Carolina move toward Democrats in 2026?
In North Carolina, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +22.9 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+3.2 in 2024, D+19.6 in 2026), counting all votes together. 100 of 100 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +20.3 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in North Carolina
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which North Carolina counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Anson County: 77.0% Christian, Dem movement +13.8
- Mitchell County: 75.4% Christian, Dem movement +23.2
- Clay County: 74.6% Christian, Dem movement +16.2
- Rutherford County: 69.8% Christian, Dem movement +20.3
- Forsyth County: 69.7% Christian, Dem movement +22.3
North Carolina counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yancey County | +28.1 | R+34.4 | R+6.4 | 39.6% | 34.7% | 26.5% | 4.0% | 60.4% |
| Johnston County | +27.6 | R+21.5 | D+6.0 | 37.4% | 25.6% | 18.7% | 9.8% | 61.0% |
| Lee County | +27.6 | R+17.5 | D+10.1 | 48.6% | 34.6% | 22.2% | 10.9% | 51.4% |
| Hoke County | +27.2 | D+5.9 | D+33.1 | 26.1% | 23.2% | 16.4% | 1.9% | 70.8% |
| Madison County | +27.1 | R+23.5 | D+3.6 | 48.9% | 45.2% | 41.6% | 2.9% | 50.0% |
| Robeson County | +27.1 | R+27.7 | R+0.6 | 47.8% | 44.0% | 32.3% | 1.9% | 51.7% |
| Jackson County | +26.8 | R+9.4 | D+17.4 | 41.2% | 33.4% | 26.8% | 5.8% | 58.7% |
| Surry County | +26.6 | R+53.3 | R+26.7 | 59.7% | 48.9% | 40.2% | 7.1% | 40.3% |
| Harnett County | +25.7 | R+25.1 | D+0.6 | 34.8% | 32.5% | 23.7% | 0.6% | 64.2% |
| Haywood County | +25.6 | R+25.1 | D+0.5 | 61.2% | 55.3% | 40.9% | 4.3% | 38.7% |
| Cabarrus County | +25.1 | R+7.7 | D+17.4 | 52.5% | 39.7% | 28.9% | 11.1% | 46.0% |
| Gaston County | +25.0 | R+25.0 | R+0.0 | 55.6% | 47.3% | 36.3% | 6.8% | 43.0% |
| Davidson County | +24.9 | R+47.1 | R+22.1 | 38.7% | 31.4% | 18.5% | 6.1% | 60.0% |
| Montgomery County | +23.5 | R+37.8 | R+14.3 | 57.1% | 43.5% | 24.3% | 12.9% | 42.9% |
| Sampson County | +23.5 | R+29.8 | R+6.2 | 69.4% | 62.4% | 48.3% | 6.0% | 30.6% |
| Stokes County | +23.5 | R+59.6 | R+36.1 | 58.3% | 54.0% | 44.5% | 2.9% | 41.7% |
| Randolph County | +23.4 | R+57.2 | R+33.9 | 47.1% | 37.4% | 26.8% | 8.2% | 52.7% |
| Ashe County | +23.3 | R+44.5 | R+21.1 | 45.4% | 39.5% | 31.4% | 5.5% | 54.5% |
| Burke County | +23.3 | R+41.2 | R+18.0 | 62.9% | 56.0% | 44.8% | 5.2% | 36.9% |
| Onslow County | +23.2 | R+35.9 | R+12.7 | 34.2% | 25.8% | 19.3% | 7.2% | 64.9% |
| Mitchell County | +23.2 | R+55.9 | R+32.7 | 75.4% | 71.0% | 60.6% | 4.4% | 24.6% |
| Swain County | +22.9 | R+23.7 | R+0.8 | 46.2% | 41.1% | 33.5% | 5.1% | 53.7% |
| Catawba County | +22.9 | R+38.0 | R+15.1 | 58.7% | 48.6% | 28.7% | 8.4% | 41.2% |
| Alamance County | +22.9 | R+8.2 | D+14.7 | 43.9% | 35.1% | 21.2% | 6.8% | 55.8% |
| McDowell County | +22.9 | R+49.2 | R+26.3 | 45.2% | 39.2% | 32.5% | 4.4% | 54.7% |
| Alleghany County | +22.7 | R+52.0 | R+29.2 | 54.8% | 41.3% | 30.9% | 10.5% | 45.2% |
| Pender County | +22.7 | R+35.0 | R+12.3 | 39.6% | 27.4% | 16.4% | 9.3% | 60.1% |
| Rowan County | +22.6 | R+35.9 | R+13.3 | 47.5% | 38.7% | 24.4% | 7.2% | 52.5% |
| Richmond County | +22.5 | R+20.9 | D+1.7 | 68.6% | 62.6% | 42.2% | 4.7% | 31.4% |
| Union County | +22.4 | R+25.3 | R+2.8 | 51.1% | 32.6% | 23.0% | 16.4% | 47.4% |
| Forsyth County | +22.3 | D+13.2 | D+35.5 | 69.7% | 55.6% | 35.6% | 11.7% | 29.1% |
| Transylvania County | +22.2 | R+12.2 | D+10.0 | 53.0% | 44.5% | 34.8% | 6.5% | 46.2% |
| Iredell County | +22.0 | R+32.6 | R+10.6 | 51.8% | 39.6% | 26.3% | 10.4% | 46.3% |
| Yadkin County | +21.8 | R+62.4 | R+40.6 | 64.5% | 55.7% | 45.2% | 7.8% | 35.5% |
| New Hanover County | +21.8 | D+0.6 | D+22.4 | 49.5% | 33.1% | 18.3% | 14.2% | 49.0% |
| Wake County | +21.7 | D+25.6 | D+47.3 | 46.6% | 30.4% | 19.4% | 13.4% | 48.2% |
| Cumberland County | +21.7 | D+13.4 | D+35.1 | 61.1% | 52.0% | 37.8% | 6.4% | 38.2% |
| Watauga County | +21.7 | D+6.0 | D+27.7 | 42.5% | 37.6% | 25.5% | 3.6% | 57.1% |
| Wilkes County | +21.7 | R+59.6 | R+38.0 | 61.2% | 55.2% | 47.5% | 4.4% | 38.8% |
| Caldwell County | +21.6 | R+52.6 | R+31.0 | 57.3% | 51.3% | 43.3% | 5.0% | 42.7% |
| Cleveland County | +21.6 | R+35.0 | R+13.4 | 60.0% | 55.9% | 44.2% | 2.9% | 39.5% |
| Rockingham County | +21.4 | R+35.9 | R+14.4 | 46.8% | 40.7% | 26.9% | 5.0% | 51.4% |
| Buncombe County | +21.4 | D+24.8 | D+46.2 | 51.5% | 42.9% | 33.9% | 7.2% | 47.5% |
| Davie County | +21.2 | R+46.5 | R+25.2 | 48.6% | 39.1% | 19.9% | 8.5% | 51.4% |
| Macon County | +21.2 | R+38.0 | R+16.8 | 55.5% | 47.6% | 37.6% | 5.7% | 44.3% |
| Mecklenburg County | +20.7 | D+32.9 | D+53.6 | 57.4% | 38.9% | 24.9% | 15.5% | 38.4% |
| Henderson County | +20.6 | R+14.6 | D+6.0 | 48.8% | 35.5% | 27.6% | 10.9% | 50.6% |
| Franklin County | +20.5 | R+13.6 | D+6.9 | 32.6% | 27.1% | 20.0% | 2.9% | 67.4% |
| Columbus County | +20.4 | R+33.9 | R+13.5 | 55.8% | 52.2% | 40.7% | 1.9% | 43.6% |
| Chatham County | +20.4 | D+12.5 | D+32.9 | 41.1% | 34.3% | 18.4% | 4.8% | 58.8% |
| Rutherford County | +20.3 | R+47.8 | R+27.5 | 69.8% | 64.5% | 52.8% | 3.8% | 30.2% |
| Guilford County | +20.2 | D+21.8 | D+42.1 | 49.0% | 38.5% | 24.1% | 8.3% | 48.1% |
| Polk County | +19.9 | R+25.2 | R+5.3 | 50.1% | 38.8% | 25.2% | 10.0% | 49.7% |
| Graham County | +19.9 | R+63.8 | R+44.0 | 37.8% | 34.1% | 29.4% | 3.6% | 62.2% |
| Moore County | +19.8 | R+29.5 | R+9.8 | 49.9% | 35.0% | 20.1% | 12.8% | 49.8% |
| Lincoln County | +19.6 | R+45.7 | R+26.1 | 51.2% | 42.6% | 26.5% | 7.4% | 48.8% |
| Granville County | +19.4 | R+9.4 | D+10.0 | 50.9% | 45.9% | 38.1% | 3.5% | 49.1% |
| Scotland County | +19.4 | R+6.9 | D+12.4 | 36.7% | 33.8% | 13.6% | 1.3% | 63.2% |
| Stanly County | +19.3 | R+50.9 | R+31.6 | 59.3% | 54.2% | 39.9% | 3.3% | 40.6% |
| Wayne County | +19.2 | R+16.4 | D+2.8 | 47.4% | 38.1% | 25.3% | 7.0% | 51.5% |
| Person County | +19.1 | R+23.7 | R+4.6 | 47.0% | 41.1% | 26.8% | 4.2% | 53.0% |
| Brunswick County | +18.9 | R+24.9 | R+5.9 | 39.6% | 26.4% | 16.4% | 11.0% | 59.2% |
| Caswell County | +18.8 | R+24.6 | R+5.7 | 42.8% | 41.3% | 21.2% | 0.0% | 57.2% |
| Wilson County | +18.7 | D+0.4 | D+19.1 | 45.6% | 38.7% | 25.2% | 5.5% | 53.0% |
| Avery County | +18.7 | R+52.4 | R+33.7 | 45.6% | 37.5% | 30.0% | 6.7% | 54.4% |
| Pitt County | +18.5 | D+6.0 | D+24.5 | 37.1% | 28.8% | 16.1% | 6.4% | 61.9% |
| Greene County | +18.5 | R+18.1 | D+0.4 | 26.4% | 24.0% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 73.5% |
| Duplin County | +17.8 | R+28.9 | R+11.1 | 41.0% | 37.0% | 23.1% | 1.7% | 58.8% |
| Pasquotank County | +17.8 | R+4.9 | D+12.9 | 47.9% | 40.2% | 24.3% | 5.0% | 52.1% |
| Alexander County | +17.7 | R+59.9 | R+42.2 | 63.2% | 58.5% | 47.5% | 4.3% | 36.8% |
| Dare County | +17.6 | R+18.8 | R+1.1 | 50.3% | 35.3% | 18.2% | 13.3% | 49.5% |
| Gates County | +17.6 | R+21.7 | R+4.0 | 48.3% | 48.3% | 38.5% | 0.0% | 51.7% |
| Nash County | +17.6 | R+1.8 | D+15.9 | 52.2% | 50.5% | 38.5% | 1.0% | 46.8% |
| Camden County | +17.4 | R+50.8 | R+33.4 | 39.1% | 39.1% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 60.9% |
| Martin County | +17.3 | R+10.3 | D+7.0 | 37.3% | 34.6% | 27.0% | 1.6% | 62.6% |
| Orange County | +16.9 | D+51.1 | D+68.0 | 46.9% | 27.5% | 10.4% | 17.3% | 50.1% |
| Vance County | +16.9 | D+13.3 | D+30.3 | 53.3% | 50.2% | 33.7% | 1.2% | 46.5% |
| Craven County | +16.8 | R+20.5 | R+3.7 | 51.1% | 39.3% | 20.0% | 9.9% | 47.8% |
| Edgecombe County | +16.6 | D+22.7 | D+39.3 | 39.4% | 35.2% | 23.4% | 1.2% | 60.5% |
| Clay County | +16.2 | R+50.1 | R+33.9 | 74.6% | 66.0% | 54.9% | 8.6% | 25.4% |
| Bladen County | +16.1 | R+20.4 | R+4.3 | 69.4% | 67.3% | 36.0% | 1.7% | 30.5% |
| Hyde County | +16.0 | R+22.1 | R+6.1 | 26.7% | 26.7% | 12.9% | 0.0% | 73.3% |
| Tyrrell County | +15.8 | R+21.5 | R+5.7 | 45.9% | 42.7% | 29.7% | 3.2% | 54.1% |
| Lenoir County | +15.7 | R+6.8 | D+8.9 | 54.0% | 49.2% | 36.2% | 2.5% | 45.8% |
| Pamlico County | +15.3 | R+32.1 | R+16.7 | 43.0% | 41.4% | 13.9% | 1.6% | 57.0% |
| Currituck County | +15.3 | R+47.9 | R+32.6 | 23.3% | 20.1% | 11.9% | 1.1% | 76.7% |
| Washington County | +15.2 | D+6.2 | D+21.4 | 56.7% | 52.8% | 37.2% | 2.8% | 41.4% |
| Beaufort County | +15.1 | R+31.1 | R+16.0 | 53.9% | 47.2% | 30.0% | 4.6% | 46.0% |
| Carteret County | +15.1 | R+43.1 | R+28.0 | 35.8% | 28.9% | 14.9% | 4.8% | 63.9% |
| Halifax County | +14.9 | D+17.7 | D+32.6 | 44.7% | 41.1% | 24.2% | 1.1% | 55.3% |
| Cherokee County | +14.7 | R+57.5 | R+42.8 | 44.3% | 36.5% | 29.1% | 5.6% | 55.7% |
| Jones County | +13.9 | R+25.7 | R+11.8 | 36.4% | 36.4% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 63.6% |
| Anson County | +13.8 | R+2.5 | D+11.3 | 77.0% | 73.3% | 41.0% | 3.1% | 22.9% |
| Durham County | +13.7 | D+61.9 | D+75.7 | 40.9% | 31.9% | 20.4% | 6.8% | 55.1% |
| Hertford County | +13.4 | D+26.8 | D+40.2 | 57.5% | 54.8% | 42.3% | 1.8% | 42.5% |
| Northampton County | +12.9 | D+14.5 | D+27.4 | 58.5% | 55.4% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 41.5% |
| Perquimans County | +12.8 | R+39.4 | R+26.6 | 43.5% | 42.2% | 19.6% | 0.0% | 56.5% |
| Warren County | +12.7 | D+19.0 | D+31.7 | 43.6% | 41.2% | 22.7% | 0.9% | 56.3% |
| Bertie County | +12.3 | D+15.7 | D+28.0 | 48.3% | 46.9% | 29.8% | 0.5% | 51.5% |
| Chowan County* | +11.3 | R+22.5 | R+11.2 | 106.5% | 93.8% | 76.4% | 9.5% | -6.6% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 1 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
North Carolina congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-01 | Davis (D) | +14.9 | +16.1 | R+11.6 | D+3.3 | 47.5% | 25.9% | 4.1% |
| NC-02 | Ross (D) | +17.2 | +21.7 | D+34.4 | D+51.6 | 46.6% | 19.4% | 13.4% |
| NC-03 | — | +13.6 | +19.6 | R+13.7 | R+0.1 | 42.5% | 23.4% | 5.6% |
| NC-04 | Foushee (D) | +14.1 | +17.3 | D+46.1 | D+60.2 | 43.9% | 17.9% | 10.8% |
| NC-05 | — | +18.0 | +21.6 | R+17.9 | D+0.0 | 52.1% | 32.4% | 6.2% |
| NC-06 | Jefferson (D) | +19.6 | +22.8 | R+17.4 | D+2.3 | 50.3% | 25.2% | 8.6% |
| NC-07 | — | +13.2 | +21.0 | R+14.0 | R+0.8 | 49.6% | 24.1% | 9.8% |
| NC-08 | Harris (R) | +17.9 | +22.3 | R+19.6 | R+1.8 | 54.2% | 27.5% | 11.7% |
| NC-09 | Ojeda (D) | +18.2 | +21.9 | R+16.0 | D+2.2 | 47.2% | 24.0% | 7.9% |
| NC-10 | Harrigan (R) | +16.9 | +22.0 | R+17.9 | R+1.0 | 60.2% | 31.1% | 10.0% |
| NC-11 | Ager (D) | +25.4 | +22.0 | R+9.6 | D+15.8 | 51.2% | 33.8% | 6.9% |
| NC-12 | Adams (D) | +15.4 | +20.7 | D+47.0 | D+62.4 | 57.4% | 24.9% | 15.5% |
| NC-13 | Barringer (D) | +19.1 | +23.8 | R+16.7 | D+2.4 | 41.2% | 21.7% | 7.9% |
| NC-14 | Womack (D) | +17.4 | +22.2 | R+15.2 | D+2.2 | 58.6% | 34.8% | 9.4% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.