Which Ohio counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Scioto County: +22.5
- Lawrence County: +22.5
- Pike County: +22.4
- Jackson County: +22.1
- Vinton County: +22.0
Ohio: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Ohio move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Ohio, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +16.1 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+11.2 in 2024, D+4.8 in 2026), counting all votes together. 88 of 88 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +16.6 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Ohio
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Ohio counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Defiance County: 82.2% Christian, Dem movement +14.9
- Mercer County: 77.5% Christian, Dem movement +9.8
- Holmes County: 76.7% Christian, Dem movement +12.0
- Geauga County: 73.1% Christian, Dem movement +12.3
- Putnam County: 72.0% Christian, Dem movement +9.5
Ohio counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scioto County | +22.5 | R+48.0 | R+25.5 | 32.6% | 27.1% | 21.2% | 4.6% | 67.4% |
| Lawrence County | +22.5 | R+50.5 | R+28.1 | 28.8% | 25.2% | 16.8% | 3.2% | 71.2% |
| Pike County | +22.4 | R+53.7 | R+31.3 | 20.0% | 18.2% | 14.5% | 1.1% | 80.0% |
| Jackson County | +22.1 | R+58.1 | R+35.9 | 27.4% | 23.6% | 15.7% | 2.2% | 72.6% |
| Vinton County | +22.0 | R+58.6 | R+36.6 | 13.1% | 11.8% | 7.5% | 1.3% | 86.9% |
| Wyandot County | +21.8 | R+51.2 | R+29.4 | 46.9% | 28.5% | 5.9% | 18.5% | 53.1% |
| Monroe County | +21.5 | R+59.8 | R+38.3 | 46.9% | 45.5% | 29.0% | 1.5% | 53.1% |
| Adams County | +21.2 | R+65.7 | R+44.5 | 20.5% | 18.6% | 15.8% | 1.1% | 79.5% |
| Belmont County | +21.0 | R+47.3 | R+26.3 | 35.0% | 24.9% | 14.2% | 9.2% | 64.9% |
| Harrison County | +21.0 | R+55.2 | R+34.3 | 27.1% | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.4% | 72.9% |
| Huron County | +20.9 | R+44.0 | R+23.1 | 38.0% | 18.0% | 9.2% | 19.3% | 62.0% |
| Meigs County | +20.8 | R+57.0 | R+36.2 | 26.7% | 24.9% | 18.3% | 1.2% | 73.3% |
| Tuscarawas County | +19.9 | R+43.3 | R+23.4 | 49.8% | 39.0% | 24.4% | 9.5% | 50.2% |
| Athens County | +19.7 | D+10.8 | D+30.5 | 18.7% | 14.8% | 9.3% | 2.5% | 80.8% |
| Guernsey County | +19.6 | R+52.1 | R+32.4 | 35.8% | 29.4% | 14.3% | 4.5% | 64.2% |
| Jefferson County | +19.6 | R+43.9 | R+24.3 | 40.9% | 22.5% | 8.2% | 16.8% | 59.1% |
| Perry County | +19.5 | R+54.5 | R+35.0 | 27.3% | 18.4% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 72.7% |
| Trumbull County | +19.4 | R+16.8 | D+2.6 | 46.6% | 30.0% | 20.1% | 14.9% | 52.6% |
| Highland County | +19.4 | R+63.4 | R+44.0 | 32.2% | 29.2% | 23.2% | 1.6% | 67.8% |
| Hocking County | +19.4 | R+44.3 | R+24.9 | 23.2% | 16.7% | 11.7% | 5.9% | 76.8% |
| Marion County | +19.3 | R+41.4 | R+22.1 | 27.6% | 23.5% | 12.9% | 3.4% | 72.4% |
| Ashtabula County | +19.2 | R+28.4 | R+9.2 | 36.9% | 26.0% | 15.1% | 10.1% | 63.1% |
| Gallia County | +19.2 | R+59.4 | R+40.2 | 30.4% | 26.6% | 19.8% | 1.6% | 69.6% |
| Washington County | +18.9 | R+43.8 | R+24.9 | 35.9% | 27.7% | 15.5% | 7.0% | 63.4% |
| Champaign County | +18.8 | R+50.8 | R+31.9 | 29.2% | 25.8% | 14.3% | 2.6% | 70.8% |
| Brown County | +18.7 | R+61.5 | R+42.8 | 29.1% | 23.4% | 19.3% | 5.2% | 70.9% |
| Noble County | +18.6 | R+64.6 | R+46.1 | 25.9% | 17.4% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 74.1% |
| Seneca County | +18.4 | R+37.5 | R+19.1 | 44.8% | 16.1% | 4.2% | 27.2% | 55.2% |
| Columbiana County | +18.3 | R+49.0 | R+30.7 | 33.2% | 24.7% | 15.0% | 6.9% | 66.8% |
| Portage County | +18.2 | R+15.5 | D+2.7 | 27.3% | 15.3% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 71.7% |
| Paulding County | +17.9 | R+56.2 | R+38.3 | 41.1% | 30.3% | 20.0% | 9.8% | 58.9% |
| Ross County | +17.9 | R+39.3 | R+21.5 | 49.3% | 43.7% | 38.0% | 4.6% | 50.7% |
| Coshocton County | +17.9 | R+52.2 | R+34.3 | 42.5% | 37.7% | 23.1% | 3.4% | 57.5% |
| Licking County | +17.9 | R+30.0 | R+12.2 | 32.2% | 22.2% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 67.8% |
| Sandusky County | +17.8 | R+30.9 | R+13.1 | 42.0% | 26.1% | 11.9% | 14.4% | 58.0% |
| Morgan County | +17.7 | R+53.2 | R+35.5 | 25.5% | 23.6% | 17.3% | 0.7% | 74.5% |
| Hardin County | +17.6 | R+54.7 | R+37.1 | 30.8% | 26.6% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 69.2% |
| Fairfield County | +17.4 | R+24.1 | R+6.6 | 42.2% | 26.6% | 17.8% | 13.6% | 57.8% |
| Pickaway County | +17.4 | R+48.5 | R+31.1 | 20.7% | 17.5% | 10.5% | 3.0% | 79.2% |
| Muskingum County | +17.0 | R+43.9 | R+26.9 | 36.1% | 29.9% | 19.2% | 5.3% | 63.9% |
| Crawford County | +16.9 | R+53.0 | R+36.0 | 58.2% | 47.5% | 29.7% | 8.6% | 41.8% |
| Lorain County | +16.9 | R+5.7 | D+11.2 | 44.6% | 22.0% | 15.3% | 21.3% | 54.7% |
| Clinton County | +16.9 | R+54.6 | R+37.8 | 29.2% | 21.8% | 13.5% | 5.9% | 70.8% |
| Stark County | +16.6 | R+21.9 | R+5.3 | 46.5% | 31.9% | 22.3% | 12.9% | 53.0% |
| Mahoning County | +16.6 | R+9.4 | D+7.2 | 50.4% | 24.1% | 11.1% | 24.4% | 48.4% |
| Carroll County | +16.4 | R+54.7 | R+38.3 | 41.4% | 35.0% | 21.4% | 5.5% | 58.6% |
| Preble County | +16.4 | R+59.1 | R+42.7 | 22.3% | 18.4% | 12.3% | 2.7% | 77.6% |
| Clark County | +16.3 | R+29.5 | R+13.2 | 33.1% | 26.6% | 16.8% | 5.6% | 66.1% |
| Richland County | +16.1 | R+42.3 | R+26.2 | 43.4% | 36.5% | 26.0% | 5.6% | 56.0% |
| Morrow County | +16.1 | R+55.7 | R+39.6 | 34.7% | 33.0% | 23.9% | 1.7% | 65.3% |
| Clermont County | +16.0 | R+35.8 | R+19.8 | 37.6% | 28.0% | 24.5% | 8.2% | 59.2% |
| Lake County | +16.0 | R+14.3 | D+1.6 | 47.3% | 13.5% | 8.5% | 32.4% | 52.4% |
| Butler County | +15.9 | R+26.3 | R+10.3 | 40.7% | 28.5% | 23.7% | 11.0% | 57.5% |
| Union County | +15.9 | R+29.6 | R+13.7 | 30.8% | 21.0% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 69.2% |
| Madison County | +15.8 | R+43.7 | R+27.8 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 11.7% | 7.3% | 73.4% |
| Summit County | +15.6 | D+7.0 | D+22.6 | 46.7% | 25.4% | 17.8% | 19.4% | 51.9% |
| Ashland County | +15.6 | R+50.0 | R+34.4 | 44.5% | 40.1% | 30.0% | 3.0% | 55.5% |
| Fayette County | +15.5 | R+55.1 | R+39.6 | 47.3% | 43.6% | 34.2% | 3.0% | 52.7% |
| Medina County | +15.4 | R+24.8 | R+9.4 | 36.2% | 17.5% | 10.2% | 17.7% | 62.8% |
| Logan County | +15.3 | R+56.2 | R+40.9 | 38.7% | 33.0% | 22.9% | 4.4% | 61.3% |
| Erie County | +15.2 | R+14.2 | D+1.0 | 55.7% | 29.6% | 16.5% | 24.6% | 43.9% |
| Defiance County | +14.9 | R+39.9 | R+24.9 | 82.2% | 65.8% | 53.3% | 15.8% | 17.8% |
| Hancock County | +14.9 | R+38.5 | R+23.5 | 40.8% | 27.3% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 58.8% |
| Wood County | +14.7 | R+10.2 | D+4.6 | 51.8% | 32.6% | 21.3% | 17.5% | 46.8% |
| Montgomery County | +14.5 | D+0.5 | D+14.9 | 58.6% | 43.6% | 31.1% | 13.0% | 39.4% |
| Fulton County | +14.2 | R+42.4 | R+28.2 | 53.4% | 38.0% | 26.5% | 14.4% | 46.5% |
| Miami County | +14.2 | R+45.1 | R+30.9 | 36.2% | 24.8% | 16.0% | 9.5% | 63.8% |
| Van Wert County | +14.1 | R+58.5 | R+44.4 | 35.5% | 27.6% | 16.1% | 7.6% | 64.5% |
| Henry County | +14.1 | R+46.7 | R+32.6 | 64.7% | 52.4% | 31.6% | 11.1% | 35.3% |
| Wayne County | +14.0 | R+39.3 | R+25.2 | 45.6% | 37.3% | 28.2% | 7.6% | 53.7% |
| Williams County | +13.9 | R+48.2 | R+34.4 | 56.8% | 49.2% | 38.6% | 6.5% | 43.2% |
| Franklin County | +13.8 | D+28.4 | D+42.1 | 43.3% | 29.5% | 20.7% | 11.5% | 52.1% |
| Warren County | +13.6 | R+31.5 | R+17.9 | 53.1% | 32.3% | 29.3% | 19.5% | 46.1% |
| Knox County | +13.5 | R+44.9 | R+31.4 | 39.9% | 32.7% | 24.5% | 6.0% | 60.1% |
| Lucas County | +13.2 | D+12.6 | D+25.7 | 38.5% | 21.3% | 10.3% | 16.1% | 58.8% |
| Allen County | +13.1 | R+44.1 | R+31.0 | 56.0% | 40.7% | 25.0% | 14.4% | 42.6% |
| Darke County | +12.9 | R+65.4 | R+52.5 | 45.8% | 31.8% | 21.9% | 12.3% | 54.2% |
| Ottawa County | +12.4 | R+25.1 | R+12.6 | 52.8% | 30.8% | 5.3% | 21.3% | 47.2% |
| Geauga County | +12.3 | R+24.1 | R+11.8 | 73.1% | 37.6% | 30.2% | 34.0% | 26.9% |
| Greene County | +12.3 | R+19.8 | R+7.5 | 36.3% | 27.3% | 21.6% | 7.6% | 59.9% |
| Cuyahoga County | +12.2 | D+31.5 | D+43.7 | 56.2% | 26.6% | 15.8% | 26.8% | 39.1% |
| Holmes County | +12.0 | R+69.2 | R+57.1 | 76.7% | 76.0% | 72.1% | 0.7% | 23.3% |
| Shelby County | +11.8 | R+64.8 | R+53.0 | 63.8% | 36.2% | 26.3% | 27.2% | 36.1% |
| Auglaize County | +11.2 | R+64.6 | R+53.4 | 52.2% | 26.4% | 12.8% | 25.1% | 47.8% |
| Delaware County | +11.1 | R+6.6 | D+4.5 | 40.1% | 17.4% | 11.1% | 21.2% | 56.7% |
| Hamilton County | +10.4 | D+14.9 | D+25.3 | 60.8% | 38.3% | 29.1% | 20.8% | 35.7% |
| Mercer County | +9.8 | R+66.7 | R+57.0 | 77.5% | 25.0% | 14.9% | 52.3% | 22.4% |
| Putnam County | +9.5 | R+68.8 | R+59.3 | 72.0% | 13.2% | 7.1% | 58.7% | 28.0% |
Ohio congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH-01 | Landsman (D) | +14.1 | +11.8 | R+2.7 | D+11.4 | 56.6% | 28.4% | 19.6% |
| OH-02 | Taylor (R) | +14.0 | +18.8 | R+42.5 | R+28.5 | 32.5% | 20.6% | 5.2% |
| OH-03 | Beatty (D) | +13.8 | +13.8 | D+40.7 | D+54.5 | 43.3% | 20.7% | 11.5% |
| OH-04 | Jordan (R) | +9.8 | +14.5 | R+43.0 | R+33.2 | 42.6% | 17.4% | 13.6% |
| OH-05 | Latta (R) | +12.3 | +17.0 | R+24.0 | R+11.7 | 45.1% | 15.7% | 17.8% |
| OH-06 | Rulli (R) | +14.1 | +17.7 | R+34.9 | R+20.8 | 44.3% | 17.4% | 13.7% |
| OH-07 | Poindexter (D) | +21.0 | +13.4 | R+11.2 | D+9.9 | 49.7% | 16.3% | 21.5% |
| OH-08 | Davidson (R) | +11.5 | +13.2 | R+15.8 | R+4.3 | 48.7% | 24.8% | 14.9% |
| OH-09 | Kaptur (D) | +16.1 | +13.6 | R+10.7 | D+5.5 | 48.6% | 16.5% | 18.7% |
| OH-10 | — | +9.5 | +14.1 | R+7.9 | D+1.6 | 51.6% | 28.1% | 11.5% |
| OH-11 | Brown (D) | +11.6 | +12.2 | D+55.5 | D+67.1 | 56.2% | 15.8% | 26.8% |
| OH-12 | Balderson (R) | +11.6 | +15.8 | R+30.4 | R+18.8 | 38.6% | 17.2% | 11.8% |
| OH-13 | Sykes (D) | +18.2 | +16.0 | D+3.3 | D+21.6 | 45.5% | 18.4% | 17.3% |
| OH-14 | Joyce (R) | +10.5 | +16.9 | R+20.6 | R+10.1 | 47.0% | 15.2% | 22.7% |
| OH-15 | Leonard (D) | +16.7 | +14.6 | R+10.1 | D+6.6 | 39.4% | 19.5% | 9.5% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.