Which Oklahoma counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Texas County: +22.7
- Canadian County: +20.5
- Love County: +20.0
- Cherokee County: +19.4
- Caddo County: +18.8
Oklahoma: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Oklahoma move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Oklahoma, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +16.3 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+34.3 in 2024, R+17.9 in 2026), counting all votes together. 77 of 77 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +13.4 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Oklahoma
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Oklahoma counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Harper County: 99.0% Christian, Dem movement +9.4
- Jefferson County: 98.1% Christian, Dem movement +11.4
- Dewey County: 94.4% Christian, Dem movement +5.9
- Cimarron County: 91.2% Christian, Dem movement +8.7
- Grant County: 90.2% Christian, Dem movement +6.8
Oklahoma counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas County | +22.7 | R+67.7 | R+45.0 | 64.5% | 41.8% | 32.8% | 19.5% | 35.5% |
| Canadian County | +20.5 | R+40.4 | R+19.9 | 39.4% | 27.5% | 20.9% | 9.0% | 60.6% |
| Love County | +20.0 | R+66.2 | R+46.2 | 72.1% | 64.1% | 58.8% | 8.0% | 27.9% |
| Cherokee County | +19.4 | R+32.6 | R+13.2 | 38.0% | 33.3% | 28.0% | 3.5% | 61.8% |
| Caddo County | +18.8 | R+47.1 | R+28.3 | 71.9% | 69.8% | 61.5% | 1.2% | 28.0% |
| Pontotoc County | +18.5 | R+46.6 | R+28.1 | 68.2% | 64.2% | 54.8% | 2.4% | 31.7% |
| Harmon County* | +18.1 | R+61.7 | R+43.6 | 164.3% | 156.3% | 147.5% | 8.0% | -64.4% |
| Carter County | +18.0 | R+54.7 | R+36.7 | 79.7% | 70.5% | 49.9% | 6.9% | 20.1% |
| Muskogee County | +17.7 | R+37.6 | R+19.9 | 75.4% | 71.0% | 60.3% | 2.8% | 24.5% |
| Adair County | +17.3 | R+63.0 | R+45.7 | 57.2% | 56.2% | 53.8% | 0.5% | 42.6% |
| Bryan County | +17.3 | R+58.6 | R+41.3 | 72.3% | 68.6% | 64.6% | 2.2% | 27.7% |
| Ottawa County | +17.3 | R+53.5 | R+36.2 | 70.8% | 67.9% | 60.5% | 1.2% | 29.1% |
| Garvin County | +16.6 | R+66.1 | R+49.5 | 72.4% | 68.1% | 58.1% | 3.2% | 27.6% |
| Cleveland County | +16.0 | R+14.9 | D+1.1 | 49.9% | 41.0% | 34.5% | 7.1% | 49.3% |
| Sequoyah County | +16.0 | R+61.5 | R+45.5 | 44.5% | 39.8% | 34.4% | 0.8% | 55.5% |
| Okmulgee County | +15.7 | R+42.7 | R+27.0 | 68.1% | 63.6% | 55.3% | 2.5% | 31.9% |
| Latimer County | +15.3 | R+65.6 | R+50.3 | 80.5% | 77.1% | 72.6% | 0.9% | 19.5% |
| Murray County | +15.3 | R+61.3 | R+46.1 | 51.7% | 45.8% | 37.9% | 5.0% | 48.3% |
| Grady County | +15.2 | R+62.7 | R+47.4 | 46.5% | 42.3% | 34.1% | 2.5% | 53.5% |
| Oklahoma County | +15.2 | R+1.7 | D+13.6 | 71.7% | 56.6% | 45.1% | 13.0% | 25.8% |
| Okfuskee County | +15.2 | R+55.8 | R+40.6 | 41.5% | 41.3% | 34.1% | 0.2% | 58.5% |
| Haskell County | +15.1 | R+69.7 | R+54.5 | 64.3% | 61.9% | 59.0% | 1.0% | 35.7% |
| Wagoner County | +14.9 | R+49.8 | R+34.8 | 24.4% | 21.2% | 16.8% | 0.5% | 75.5% |
| McClain County | +14.7 | R+60.6 | R+45.9 | 43.5% | 38.7% | 34.4% | 2.9% | 56.5% |
| Hughes County | +14.5 | R+62.5 | R+48.1 | 45.5% | 45.2% | 40.5% | 0.3% | 54.4% |
| Pawnee County | +14.2 | R+58.9 | R+44.6 | 62.7% | 58.2% | 47.8% | 0.1% | 37.3% |
| Marshall County | +14.2 | R+63.4 | R+49.2 | 58.3% | 47.1% | 42.1% | 10.4% | 41.7% |
| Rogers County | +14.2 | R+55.0 | R+40.8 | 44.0% | 41.1% | 34.0% | 1.3% | 56.0% |
| Osage County | +14.2 | R+41.4 | R+27.2 | 44.6% | 37.9% | 33.1% | 2.8% | 55.4% |
| Mayes County | +14.1 | R+57.5 | R+43.4 | 59.3% | 56.4% | 50.8% | 1.6% | 40.6% |
| Tulsa County | +13.9 | R+15.2 | R+1.3 | 62.2% | 52.3% | 39.8% | 7.9% | 36.0% |
| Pottawatomie County | +13.9 | R+47.4 | R+33.6 | 60.5% | 55.6% | 49.7% | 4.0% | 39.4% |
| Johnston County | +13.8 | R+65.7 | R+51.8 | 46.0% | 46.0% | 42.1% | 0.0% | 54.0% |
| Le Flore County | +13.7 | R+64.8 | R+51.1 | 62.0% | 58.6% | 55.1% | 1.5% | 37.9% |
| Creek County | +13.7 | R+55.8 | R+42.1 | 45.6% | 44.0% | 39.3% | 0.5% | 54.3% |
| Choctaw County | +13.6 | R+65.4 | R+51.8 | 51.5% | 47.7% | 44.1% | 2.0% | 48.5% |
| Custer County | +13.5 | R+53.2 | R+39.8 | 74.7% | 63.7% | 49.6% | 8.9% | 25.2% |
| Comanche County | +13.4 | R+23.3 | R+9.9 | 59.5% | 50.0% | 41.7% | 7.5% | 39.9% |
| Washita County | +13.4 | R+74.8 | R+61.4 | 56.2% | 53.2% | 47.9% | 3.0% | 43.8% |
| Pittsburg County | +13.1 | R+59.0 | R+45.9 | 74.3% | 64.5% | 59.7% | 8.4% | 25.7% |
| Atoka County | +13.0 | R+71.6 | R+58.5 | 72.8% | 71.2% | 69.1% | 0.8% | 27.2% |
| Seminole County | +12.9 | R+49.7 | R+36.8 | 57.8% | 50.9% | 42.9% | 5.0% | 42.0% |
| McCurtain County | +12.8 | R+68.9 | R+56.1 | 55.9% | 50.9% | 40.4% | 2.8% | 44.1% |
| Blaine County | +12.7 | R+62.9 | R+50.3 | 77.2% | 70.2% | 51.8% | 7.0% | 22.6% |
| Beaver County | +12.6 | R+83.8 | R+71.2 | 65.4% | 56.4% | 37.3% | 9.0% | 34.6% |
| Greer County | +12.4 | R+65.7 | R+53.3 | 87.0% | 77.0% | 63.7% | 10.0% | 13.0% |
| Payne County | +12.4 | R+25.3 | R+12.9 | 43.0% | 34.3% | 27.6% | 4.5% | 56.5% |
| Logan County | +12.4 | R+49.1 | R+36.7 | 32.8% | 27.6% | 22.5% | 1.8% | 67.2% |
| Tillman County | +12.2 | R+59.5 | R+47.2 | 86.9% | 74.9% | 60.6% | 12.0% | 12.9% |
| Craig County | +12.1 | R+58.3 | R+46.2 | 59.6% | 57.7% | 49.9% | 1.9% | 40.3% |
| Garfield County | +12.0 | R+53.8 | R+41.8 | 63.8% | 50.8% | 40.1% | 9.7% | 36.1% |
| Woodward County | +12.0 | R+72.0 | R+60.0 | 69.9% | 51.9% | 34.6% | 15.5% | 30.1% |
| Beckham County | +11.7 | R+70.1 | R+58.4 | 68.2% | 64.0% | 54.2% | 2.9% | 31.8% |
| Pushmataha County | +11.7 | R+72.5 | R+60.8 | 61.3% | 58.4% | 53.3% | 0.6% | 38.7% |
| Coal County | +11.7 | R+71.3 | R+59.6 | 67.7% | 67.7% | 50.8% | 0.0% | 32.3% |
| Nowata County | +11.6 | R+67.0 | R+55.4 | 52.0% | 49.9% | 45.3% | 0.8% | 47.9% |
| Kay County | +11.6 | R+49.4 | R+37.8 | 70.7% | 58.1% | 42.8% | 9.7% | 29.2% |
| Lincoln County | +11.5 | R+63.3 | R+51.8 | 49.4% | 47.1% | 41.2% | 1.6% | 50.5% |
| Jefferson County | +11.4 | R+71.6 | R+60.3 | 98.1% | 93.1% | 81.3% | 5.0% | 1.9% |
| McIntosh County | +11.0 | R+52.7 | R+41.8 | 56.2% | 52.9% | 47.0% | 0.8% | 43.8% |
| Kingfisher County | +11.0 | R+71.4 | R+60.4 | 55.4% | 36.4% | 23.4% | 19.0% | 44.5% |
| Stephens County | +10.9 | R+63.7 | R+52.8 | 62.9% | 59.4% | 50.6% | 2.1% | 37.0% |
| Jackson County | +10.6 | R+58.3 | R+47.7 | 66.0% | 57.6% | 43.3% | 6.1% | 34.0% |
| Noble County | +10.5 | R+57.4 | R+46.9 | 65.3% | 61.0% | 42.5% | 4.3% | 34.7% |
| Delaware County | +10.3 | R+60.4 | R+50.1 | 42.0% | 38.6% | 35.3% | 1.8% | 57.8% |
| Cotton County | +10.2 | R+66.8 | R+56.7 | 83.1% | 77.1% | 61.4% | 6.0% | 16.9% |
| Woods County | +9.5 | R+64.3 | R+54.8 | 72.3% | 62.2% | 34.0% | 6.6% | 27.6% |
| Harper County | +9.4 | R+78.4 | R+68.9 | 99.0% | 89.1% | 61.1% | 9.9% | 1.0% |
| Kiowa County | +9.3 | R+58.3 | R+49.0 | 79.2% | 75.2% | 59.5% | 4.0% | 20.8% |
| Washington County | +8.8 | R+47.6 | R+38.8 | 83.3% | 74.7% | 60.5% | 5.1% | 16.6% |
| Cimarron County | +8.7 | R+84.9 | R+76.2 | 91.2% | 84.2% | 48.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% |
| Roger Mills County | +8.6 | R+80.1 | R+71.5 | 85.2% | 85.2% | 70.7% | 0.0% | 14.8% |
| Ellis County | +7.5 | R+76.6 | R+69.1 | 77.3% | 71.3% | 49.1% | 6.0% | 22.7% |
| Alfalfa County | +7.0 | R+76.6 | R+69.6 | 63.1% | 58.1% | 30.1% | 5.0% | 36.9% |
| Major County | +6.9 | R+79.4 | R+72.4 | 65.7% | 62.8% | 50.9% | 2.9% | 34.3% |
| Grant County | +6.8 | R+70.5 | R+63.7 | 90.2% | 81.4% | 50.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% |
| Dewey County | +5.9 | R+80.1 | R+74.2 | 94.4% | 86.4% | 63.3% | 8.0% | 5.6% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 1 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
Oklahoma congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OK-01 | Tedford (R) | +17.4 | +14.0 | R+22.0 | R+4.6 | 57.2% | 37.4% | 6.6% |
| OK-02 | Brecheen (R) | +17.5 | +14.3 | R+56.5 | R+39.0 | 59.0% | 48.1% | 2.5% |
| OK-03 | Lucas (R) | +18.9 | +13.9 | R+46.8 | R+27.9 | 60.2% | 39.2% | 7.7% |
| OK-04 | Cole (R) | +15.9 | +15.4 | R+34.0 | R+18.1 | 57.3% | 40.7% | 6.4% |
| OK-05 | Bice (R) | +16.5 | +15.4 | R+17.8 | R+1.3 | 63.5% | 41.0% | 10.6% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.