In Pennsylvania, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. House race shifted +14.9 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+8.6 in 2024, D+6.2 in 2026), counting all votes together. 67 of 67 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +12.9 points.
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. House; no Senate race) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia County | +25.1 | D+36.5 | D+61.6 | 36.3% | 18.6% | 7.6% | 15.8% | 56.8% |
| Greene County | +20.6 | R+44.8 | R+24.3 | 36.2% | 23.9% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 63.8% |
| Schuylkill County | +20.5 | R+42.1 | R+21.6 | 49.8% | 25.2% | 4.5% | 23.4% | 48.2% |
| Washington County | +19.8 | R+25.5 | R+5.7 | 42.2% | 19.9% | 9.8% | 21.2% | 57.8% |
| Fayette County | +19.7 | R+38.0 | R+18.2 | 35.4% | 22.2% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 64.6% |
| Berks County | +19.1 | R+12.2 | D+7.0 | 45.1% | 23.7% | 10.7% | 19.6% | 54.4% |
| Beaver County | +18.9 | R+20.7 | R+1.8 | 49.1% | 20.4% | 9.7% | 26.6% | 50.0% |
| Lackawanna County | +18.1 | D+2.8 | D+20.9 | 60.5% | 13.8% | 8.2% | 44.6% | 36.8% |
| Monroe County | +17.3 | R+0.8 | D+16.5 | 33.7% | 15.8% | 8.8% | 15.3% | 63.3% |
| Luzerne County | +16.9 | R+19.2 | R+2.3 | 49.8% | 11.8% | 4.3% | 36.7% | 49.0% |
| Mercer County | +16.0 | R+30.2 | R+14.2 | 39.7% | 25.9% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 60.2% |
| Lawrence County | +15.9 | R+33.8 | R+17.8 | 57.2% | 21.6% | 11.9% | 34.3% | 42.5% |
| Westmoreland County | +15.9 | R+28.4 | R+12.5 | 51.3% | 23.5% | 8.0% | 26.8% | 48.6% |
| Chester County | +15.8 | D+14.5 | D+30.2 | 49.2% | 17.6% | 8.1% | 30.8% | 48.0% |
| Northampton County | +15.7 | R+1.8 | D+13.9 | 42.7% | 19.4% | 7.0% | 21.9% | 55.7% |
| Delaware County | +15.6 | D+23.7 | D+39.3 | 46.5% | 12.5% | 4.8% | 32.7% | 50.0% |
| Allegheny County | +15.6 | D+20.3 | D+35.9 | 56.2% | 17.9% | 7.6% | 36.7% | 39.2% |
| Cumberland County | +15.4 | R+9.4 | D+6.0 | 39.8% | 25.5% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 58.3% |
| Montgomery County | +15.3 | D+22.8 | D+38.1 | 49.4% | 17.7% | 8.0% | 30.4% | 45.7% |
| Erie County | +15.2 | R+1.0 | D+14.2 | 37.9% | 18.0% | 8.0% | 18.5% | 61.3% |
| Lebanon County | +15.2 | R+31.9 | R+16.8 | 35.8% | 26.8% | 13.1% | 7.9% | 63.9% |
| Butler County | +15.0 | R+32.2 | R+17.2 | 53.9% | 22.3% | 11.6% | 30.3% | 46.0% |
| Lehigh County | +15.0 | D+2.7 | D+17.7 | 37.7% | 19.0% | 7.0% | 16.2% | 59.8% |
| Indiana County | +14.7 | R+39.1 | R+24.4 | 47.8% | 33.8% | 20.2% | 12.3% | 51.6% |
| Carbon County | +14.7 | R+34.8 | R+20.1 | 35.9% | 19.0% | 2.7% | 15.9% | 64.1% |
| Pike County | +14.7 | R+24.1 | R+9.4 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 14.2% | 76.0% |
| Dauphin County | +14.4 | D+5.9 | D+20.3 | 41.4% | 25.0% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 55.4% |
| Northumberland County | +14.1 | R+39.9 | R+25.8 | 44.7% | 29.9% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 53.7% |
| York County | +14.0 | R+25.3 | R+11.3 | 33.4% | 23.8% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 65.9% |
| Wayne County | +13.2 | R+37.1 | R+23.9 | 32.9% | 14.3% | 4.5% | 18.1% | 64.3% |
| Armstrong County | +13.0 | R+53.2 | R+40.2 | 51.0% | 36.4% | 17.6% | 13.6% | 49.0% |
| Somerset County | +12.9 | R+57.2 | R+44.3 | 48.6% | 35.2% | 15.6% | 11.8% | 51.0% |
| Columbia County | +12.9 | R+31.0 | R+18.1 | 38.4% | 28.4% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 61.6% |
| Sullivan County | +12.9 | R+46.9 | R+34.0 | 41.8% | 17.8% | 7.2% | 23.5% | 58.2% |
| Union County | +12.6 | R+23.4 | R+10.8 | 34.1% | 28.1% | 11.0% | 5.1% | 65.9% |
| Montour County | +12.5 | R+21.0 | R+8.5 | 37.2% | 23.3% | 7.1% | 13.9% | 62.8% |
| Cambria County | +12.5 | R+39.7 | R+27.2 | 63.8% | 27.5% | 11.7% | 34.7% | 36.2% |
| Wyoming County | +12.4 | R+36.8 | R+24.4 | 35.6% | 21.1% | 9.2% | 13.8% | 64.3% |
| Adams County | +12.1 | R+33.6 | R+21.5 | 38.9% | 22.8% | 10.2% | 14.5% | 60.6% |
| Clinton County | +11.8 | R+40.9 | R+29.1 | 33.7% | 24.5% | 13.1% | 7.8% | 66.3% |
| Bradford County | +11.8 | R+47.9 | R+36.2 | 30.1% | 22.1% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 69.8% |
| Susquehanna County | +11.7 | R+44.7 | R+33.0 | 31.7% | 14.2% | 5.5% | 15.4% | 67.7% |
| Crawford County | +11.5 | R+39.2 | R+27.8 | 40.1% | 31.4% | 18.4% | 7.8% | 59.7% |
| Centre County | +10.8 | D+2.8 | D+13.6 | 33.0% | 21.8% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 66.1% |
| Lycoming County | +10.4 | R+41.5 | R+31.1 | 42.7% | 30.2% | 13.8% | 11.6% | 56.8% |
| Perry County | +10.3 | R+49.3 | R+39.0 | 31.2% | 26.0% | 12.9% | 3.8% | 68.8% |
| Blair County | +9.9 | R+43.5 | R+33.5 | 41.5% | 28.3% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 57.8% |
| Mifflin County | +9.6 | R+56.4 | R+46.8 | 47.7% | 44.3% | 28.5% | 2.5% | 52.3% |
| Lancaster County | +9.6 | R+15.9 | R+6.4 | 46.2% | 35.8% | 26.3% | 9.0% | 52.8% |
| McKean County | +9.5 | R+47.2 | R+37.6 | 36.7% | 24.8% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 63.3% |
| Clarion County | +9.4 | R+53.1 | R+43.7 | 47.4% | 31.8% | 14.5% | 14.1% | 52.6% |
| Franklin County | +9.4 | R+43.0 | R+33.6 | 32.8% | 25.8% | 16.4% | 5.6% | 67.2% |
| Snyder County | +9.3 | R+47.0 | R+37.8 | 45.5% | 41.1% | 18.5% | 4.4% | 54.4% |
| Elk County | +9.1 | R+47.0 | R+37.9 | 55.4% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 40.9% | 44.6% |
| Clearfield County | +8.9 | R+51.5 | R+42.6 | 40.1% | 24.9% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 59.8% |
| Jefferson County | +8.5 | R+58.5 | R+50.0 | 47.7% | 32.0% | 13.0% | 14.2% | 52.3% |
| Juniata County | +8.4 | R+61.4 | R+53.0 | 39.0% | 37.0% | 16.0% | 1.5% | 61.0% |
| Forest County | +8.4 | R+44.5 | R+36.1 | 22.6% | 21.5% | 13.4% | 1.1% | 77.4% |
| Huntingdon County | +8.3 | R+52.9 | R+44.7 | 37.5% | 31.7% | 18.0% | 4.4% | 62.5% |
| Warren County | +8.3 | R+39.2 | R+31.0 | 37.7% | 29.1% | 10.9% | 8.1% | 62.3% |
| Venango County | +8.1 | R+42.1 | R+34.0 | 44.6% | 34.1% | 14.3% | 8.8% | 55.4% |
| Fulton County | +7.5 | R+72.6 | R+65.2 | 29.1% | 26.3% | 14.8% | 1.3% | 70.8% |
| Bedford County | +7.4 | R+68.6 | R+61.2 | 39.9% | 36.6% | 22.8% | 2.5% | 60.1% |
| Tioga County | +6.7 | R+51.8 | R+45.0 | 31.0% | 23.2% | 12.0% | 6.9% | 68.9% |
| Potter County | +5.8 | R+62.3 | R+56.5 | 36.9% | 32.5% | 25.0% | 4.4% | 63.1% |
| Bucks County | +5.4 | R+0.1 | D+5.3 | 48.3% | 12.8% | 6.0% | 34.5% | 49.1% |
| Cameron County | +4.2 | R+50.3 | R+46.0 | 40.6% | 23.2% | 8.2% | 17.4% | 59.4% |
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA-01 | Harvie (D) | +5.2 | +6.9 | D+0.3 | D+5.5 | 48.5% | 6.3% | 33.9% |
| PA-02 | Boyle (D) | +25.4 | +25.1 | D+36.2 | D+61.6 | 36.3% | 7.6% | 15.8% |
| PA-03 | Rabb (D) | — | +25.1 | — | — | 36.3% | 7.6% | 15.8% |
| PA-04 | Dean (D) | +18.1 | +15.9 | D+16.1 | D+34.2 | 48.7% | 8.4% | 28.7% |
| PA-05 | Scanlon (D) | +15.2 | +16.2 | D+29.0 | D+44.1 | 46.3% | 5.4% | 31.3% |
| PA-06 | Houlahan (D) | +17.0 | +16.5 | D+11.6 | D+28.6 | 48.3% | 8.7% | 28.4% |
| PA-07 | Brooks (D) | — | +15.3 | — | D+12.2 | 39.6% | 6.7% | 18.6% |
| PA-08 | Cognetti (D) | +17.4 | +16.9 | R+8.7 | D+8.7 | 46.4% | 6.4% | 31.5% |
| PA-09 | Meuser (R) | +15.1 | +15.2 | R+38.3 | R+23.1 | 41.1% | 9.7% | 15.3% |
| PA-10 | Stelson (D) | +15.4 | +14.6 | R+5.4 | D+10.1 | 38.5% | 11.3% | 12.2% |
| PA-11 | Smucker (R) | +10.4 | +10.8 | R+21.5 | R+11.1 | 42.5% | 22.0% | 8.7% |
| PA-12 | Lee (D) | +11.4 | +15.6 | D+19.4 | D+30.8 | 55.4% | 7.7% | 35.1% |
| PA-13 | Joyce (R) | +10.8 | +10.4 | R+45.9 | R+35.1 | 42.2% | 15.2% | 12.5% |
| PA-14 | Reschenthaler (R) | +18.4 | +17.4 | R+33.6 | R+15.2 | 45.3% | 10.7% | 19.8% |
| PA-15 | Thompson (R) | +10.5 | +9.9 | R+38.3 | R+27.8 | 40.1% | 12.4% | 11.6% |
| PA-16 | Kelly (R) | +15.1 | +14.8 | R+23.0 | R+7.9 | 45.4% | 11.4% | 21.7% |
| PA-17 | Deluzio (D) | +20.1 | +16.2 | D+5.5 | D+25.6 | 54.8% | 8.0% | 34.7% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.