In South Carolina, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +22.3 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+17.9 in 2024, D+4.5 in 2026), counting all votes together. 46 of 46 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +20.9 points.
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartanburg County | +28.9 | R+33.6 | R+4.7 | 51.0% | 44.9% | 35.2% | 4.3% | 48.5% |
| Kershaw County | +27.1 | R+28.2 | R+1.1 | 48.7% | 40.2% | 30.0% | 4.7% | 51.2% |
| Berkeley County | +25.7 | R+16.3 | D+9.4 | 35.8% | 23.6% | 17.1% | 10.8% | 64.0% |
| Lexington County | +25.7 | R+33.5 | R+7.8 | 52.0% | 41.5% | 25.7% | 8.5% | 47.1% |
| Laurens County | +24.5 | R+40.9 | R+16.3 | 56.5% | 53.8% | 41.6% | 2.1% | 43.5% |
| Greenville County | +24.4 | R+22.2 | D+2.2 | 58.6% | 45.2% | 34.3% | 11.4% | 40.6% |
| Dorchester County | +24.2 | R+14.6 | D+9.6 | 41.8% | 28.4% | 17.3% | 10.8% | 58.2% |
| Anderson County | +23.9 | R+47.4 | R+23.4 | 72.4% | 68.0% | 58.1% | 3.3% | 27.4% |
| Greenwood County | +23.8 | R+29.0 | R+5.2 | 51.7% | 44.0% | 28.8% | 5.9% | 48.2% |
| Chester County | +23.4 | R+17.2 | D+6.2 | 67.7% | 64.3% | 42.4% | 1.2% | 31.6% |
| Pickens County | +23.3 | R+52.7 | R+29.4 | 47.2% | 43.0% | 36.1% | 3.5% | 52.4% |
| Darlington County | +23.1 | R+13.3 | D+9.7 | 50.5% | 46.7% | 31.9% | 2.0% | 47.7% |
| Florence County | +22.8 | R+8.0 | D+14.7 | 50.1% | 44.7% | 29.2% | 4.0% | 48.0% |
| Chesterfield County | +22.6 | R+28.1 | R+5.4 | 50.1% | 47.6% | 33.5% | 1.0% | 49.4% |
| Cherokee County | +22.6 | R+51.4 | R+28.8 | 62.6% | 58.9% | 53.1% | 2.1% | 37.3% |
| York County | +22.5 | R+19.1 | D+3.4 | 44.0% | 33.7% | 24.0% | 8.5% | 55.3% |
| Colleton County | +22.4 | R+18.2 | D+4.2 | 50.8% | 46.9% | 29.8% | 2.3% | 48.1% |
| Newberry County | +22.2 | R+34.3 | R+12.1 | 50.9% | 45.0% | 13.4% | 3.2% | 48.8% |
| Sumter County | +22.0 | D+4.9 | D+26.9 | 52.7% | 46.7% | 30.3% | 4.1% | 46.8% |
| Calhoun County | +21.4 | R+14.3 | D+7.1 | 37.8% | 35.9% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 61.5% |
| Aiken County | +21.4 | R+25.9 | R+4.5 | 60.9% | 50.8% | 40.9% | 7.3% | 39.0% |
| Union County | +21.3 | R+32.7 | R+11.4 | 77.9% | 74.7% | 54.1% | 0.7% | 21.9% |
| Marlboro County | +21.0 | D+2.4 | D+23.3 | 41.3% | 39.6% | 20.9% | 0.9% | 57.8% |
| Abbeville County | +20.8 | R+42.4 | R+21.6 | 62.6% | 60.4% | 36.4% | 1.2% | 37.3% |
| Dillon County | +20.8 | R+10.8 | D+9.9 | 51.5% | 49.2% | 41.1% | 1.5% | 44.5% |
| Saluda County | +20.5 | R+44.4 | R+23.8 | 49.6% | 43.3% | 25.2% | 2.8% | 50.2% |
| Charleston County | +20.4 | D+5.7 | D+26.1 | 49.3% | 35.2% | 16.9% | 12.2% | 49.4% |
| Oconee County | +19.7 | R+51.5 | R+31.8 | 54.9% | 45.0% | 40.1% | 8.3% | 45.0% |
| Lancaster County | +19.5 | R+24.8 | R+5.3 | 46.7% | 38.2% | 25.8% | 6.7% | 52.5% |
| Orangeburg County | +19.3 | D+24.6 | D+43.9 | 61.4% | 57.0% | 34.4% | 2.1% | 35.2% |
| Barnwell County | +19.2 | R+15.5 | D+3.7 | 59.5% | 55.1% | 44.9% | 1.7% | 40.1% |
| Edgefield County | +19.1 | R+31.9 | R+12.7 | 53.2% | 41.7% | 32.0% | 10.9% | 46.7% |
| Lee County | +18.9 | D+17.7 | D+36.5 | 52.3% | 51.2% | 22.4% | 0.0% | 44.8% |
| Richland County | +18.6 | D+34.6 | D+53.2 | 54.6% | 46.2% | 25.6% | 6.2% | 43.4% |
| Clarendon County | +17.8 | R+12.3 | D+5.5 | 51.5% | 47.4% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 47.7% |
| Williamsburg County | +17.1 | D+21.7 | D+38.8 | 51.9% | 50.3% | 17.0% | 0.8% | 43.3% |
| Horry County | +17.0 | R+38.5 | R+21.5 | 44.6% | 29.1% | 21.7% | 14.0% | 55.0% |
| Bamberg County | +17.0 | D+15.3 | D+32.2 | 47.1% | 46.1% | 26.9% | 0.0% | 52.2% |
| Marion County | +16.5 | D+10.5 | D+27.1 | 58.5% | 55.7% | 28.8% | 1.1% | 35.4% |
| Georgetown County | +15.7 | R+19.5 | R+3.8 | 60.9% | 49.4% | 21.6% | 9.1% | 38.1% |
| Fairfield County | +14.8 | D+13.2 | D+28.1 | 68.8% | 64.6% | 32.2% | 0.8% | 30.8% |
| Hampton County | +12.3 | D+6.4 | D+18.7 | 60.4% | 58.6% | 45.1% | 0.8% | 39.3% |
| Allendale County | +11.9 | D+44.7 | D+56.6 | 56.5% | 55.4% | 26.8% | 1.1% | 42.8% |
| Beaufort County | +11.7 | R+14.5 | R+2.8 | 43.7% | 20.8% | 13.8% | 21.4% | 55.4% |
| Jasper County | +11.7 | R+9.6 | D+2.0 | 37.5% | 22.2% | 17.0% | 6.8% | 62.5% |
| McCormick County | +11.4 | R+17.1 | R+5.7 | 51.5% | 38.4% | 17.2% | 10.8% | 48.4% |
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC-01 | — | +14.2 | +20.0 | R+13.2 | D+1.0 | 42.8% | 16.3% | 13.9% |
| SC-02 | — | +13.1 | +22.0 | R+14.1 | R+1.0 | 55.4% | 29.9% | 7.1% |
| SC-03 | Biggs (R) | +14.3 | +22.7 | R+43.6 | R+29.3 | 58.3% | 40.1% | 5.3% |
| SC-04 | Timmons (R) | +17.9 | +26.0 | R+24.0 | R+6.1 | 56.0% | 34.6% | 9.0% |
| SC-05 | Climer (R) | +17.4 | +22.6 | R+23.1 | R+5.7 | 50.4% | 30.0% | 5.8% |
| SC-06 | Clyburn (D) | +15.8 | +19.3 | D+23.0 | D+38.8 | 51.1% | 22.9% | 6.8% |
| SC-07 | Fry (R) | +13.1 | +18.6 | R+26.6 | R+13.5 | 48.4% | 24.9% | 9.3% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.