Which Tennessee counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Rutherford County: +22.0
- Warren County: +19.4
- Hamblen County: +19.2
- Cheatham County: +18.7
- Bedford County: +18.6
Tennessee: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Tennessee move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Tennessee, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +17.6 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+29.7 in 2024, R+12.2 in 2026), counting all votes together. 95 of 95 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +13.7 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Tennessee
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Tennessee counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Hancock County: 81.2% Christian, Dem movement +13.1
- Obion County: 74.6% Christian, Dem movement +11.3
- Hamblen County: 73.7% Christian, Dem movement +19.2
- Madison County: 70.7% Christian, Dem movement +13.6
- McMinn County: 68.6% Christian, Dem movement +15.1
Tennessee counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutherford County | +22.0 | R+21.8 | D+0.2 | 37.0% | 31.8% | 26.0% | 2.6% | 61.8% |
| Warren County | +19.4 | R+56.1 | R+36.7 | 50.7% | 47.5% | 42.6% | 1.8% | 49.3% |
| Hamblen County | +19.2 | R+58.9 | R+39.7 | 73.7% | 66.9% | 56.5% | 4.6% | 26.3% |
| Cheatham County | +18.7 | R+45.9 | R+27.2 | 29.1% | 27.2% | 22.6% | 1.5% | 70.9% |
| Bedford County | +18.6 | R+58.0 | R+39.4 | 41.3% | 36.6% | 30.0% | 3.2% | 58.7% |
| Montgomery County | +18.5 | R+18.4 | D+0.1 | 47.3% | 40.3% | 33.7% | 4.7% | 52.5% |
| Anderson County | +18.2 | R+35.7 | R+17.5 | 56.9% | 53.4% | 43.5% | 1.3% | 42.6% |
| Knox County | +17.6 | R+19.5 | R+1.9 | 55.3% | 49.4% | 37.0% | 4.2% | 43.3% |
| Davidson County | +17.3 | D+27.4 | D+44.8 | 58.1% | 45.5% | 27.4% | 8.7% | 38.3% |
| Dickson County | +17.3 | R+51.9 | R+34.6 | 46.9% | 43.2% | 38.2% | 2.2% | 53.1% |
| Sumner County | +17.0 | R+41.8 | R+24.8 | 53.6% | 47.7% | 42.4% | 4.2% | 46.4% |
| Grundy County | +16.9 | R+69.3 | R+52.4 | 29.6% | 27.1% | 21.2% | 0.0% | 70.3% |
| Wilson County | +16.9 | R+40.1 | R+23.2 | 51.1% | 39.4% | 32.7% | 9.1% | 48.9% |
| Haywood County | +16.8 | D+0.4 | D+17.2 | 64.1% | 61.1% | 35.5% | 1.2% | 35.8% |
| Crockett County | +16.7 | R+58.7 | R+42.0 | 67.8% | 63.3% | 46.1% | 4.6% | 32.1% |
| Robertson County | +16.5 | R+50.9 | R+34.3 | 53.9% | 51.2% | 42.6% | 1.5% | 46.1% |
| Coffee County | +16.5 | R+55.1 | R+38.6 | 48.8% | 44.4% | 34.1% | 3.2% | 51.1% |
| Scott County | +16.4 | R+79.8 | R+63.5 | 35.4% | 35.3% | 32.6% | 0.1% | 64.6% |
| Bradley County | +16.3 | R+58.9 | R+42.5 | 61.7% | 57.5% | 51.5% | 3.0% | 37.8% |
| Sevier County | +16.3 | R+61.1 | R+44.9 | 58.8% | 52.4% | 46.0% | 5.2% | 41.1% |
| Marion County | +16.2 | R+55.7 | R+39.5 | 41.2% | 38.8% | 32.2% | 0.4% | 58.7% |
| Putnam County | +16.1 | R+47.4 | R+31.3 | 44.9% | 38.4% | 32.4% | 3.9% | 54.5% |
| Cannon County | +16.0 | R+66.1 | R+50.1 | 39.2% | 37.9% | 33.9% | 0.0% | 60.8% |
| Washington County | +15.8 | R+39.5 | R+23.7 | 51.8% | 47.9% | 38.5% | 2.3% | 47.9% |
| Hamilton County | +15.6 | R+13.1 | D+2.6 | 58.1% | 53.6% | 39.7% | 3.1% | 40.9% |
| Lake County | +15.6 | R+54.9 | R+39.3 | 56.4% | 56.4% | 46.6% | 0.0% | 42.4% |
| Trousdale County | +15.5 | R+58.9 | R+43.4 | 31.1% | 31.1% | 13.6% | 0.0% | 68.9% |
| Campbell County | +15.4 | R+69.6 | R+54.2 | 40.2% | 37.9% | 32.9% | 0.5% | 59.8% |
| Hardeman County | +15.1 | R+24.1 | R+9.0 | 58.8% | 57.7% | 44.3% | 0.5% | 41.2% |
| McMinn County | +15.1 | R+64.2 | R+49.2 | 68.6% | 66.8% | 56.7% | 0.5% | 31.4% |
| Van Buren County | +14.9 | R+67.2 | R+52.3 | 23.5% | 23.5% | 23.2% | 0.0% | 76.5% |
| Overton County | +14.8 | R+64.2 | R+49.4 | 33.2% | 29.7% | 25.9% | 0.0% | 66.8% |
| Humphreys County | +14.7 | R+56.1 | R+41.4 | 41.4% | 36.4% | 27.6% | 4.1% | 58.6% |
| Bledsoe County | +14.6 | R+70.5 | R+55.9 | 20.5% | 18.3% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 79.5% |
| Macon County | +14.4 | R+74.3 | R+60.0 | 23.7% | 19.7% | 16.4% | 1.7% | 76.3% |
| Carter County | +14.4 | R+63.2 | R+48.9 | 46.3% | 44.3% | 40.8% | 0.6% | 53.7% |
| Marshall County | +14.3 | R+56.6 | R+42.3 | 48.7% | 44.4% | 36.7% | 2.2% | 51.3% |
| Sullivan County | +14.2 | R+55.0 | R+40.7 | 62.1% | 59.2% | 47.4% | 1.7% | 37.7% |
| Rhea County | +14.2 | R+66.9 | R+52.7 | 42.9% | 39.5% | 32.7% | 1.2% | 57.1% |
| Roane County | +14.1 | R+54.5 | R+40.4 | 60.7% | 58.4% | 50.9% | 0.9% | 39.3% |
| Morgan County | +14.0 | R+74.5 | R+60.5 | 52.3% | 52.2% | 50.6% | 0.2% | 47.7% |
| Tipton County | +14.0 | R+52.8 | R+38.9 | 54.3% | 53.8% | 38.6% | 0.2% | 45.7% |
| Union County | +14.0 | R+71.2 | R+57.2 | 34.4% | 32.3% | 31.8% | 2.1% | 65.6% |
| Blount County | +13.9 | R+47.7 | R+33.8 | 51.6% | 47.4% | 36.9% | 2.7% | 47.9% |
| Maury County | +13.9 | R+44.6 | R+30.7 | 41.4% | 36.2% | 28.8% | 3.6% | 56.9% |
| Jefferson County | +13.7 | R+64.2 | R+50.5 | 56.6% | 54.6% | 46.5% | 1.3% | 43.4% |
| Lewis County | +13.7 | R+65.5 | R+51.9 | 31.1% | 29.5% | 25.4% | 1.6% | 68.9% |
| DeKalb County | +13.7 | R+62.7 | R+49.0 | 42.8% | 39.3% | 32.6% | 1.7% | 57.2% |
| Madison County | +13.6 | R+18.2 | R+4.6 | 70.7% | 67.0% | 54.0% | 2.3% | 28.2% |
| Gibson County | +13.5 | R+52.0 | R+38.4 | 65.2% | 62.5% | 49.9% | 0.8% | 34.8% |
| Lauderdale County | +13.5 | R+37.0 | R+23.6 | 50.4% | 49.6% | 37.1% | 0.1% | 49.5% |
| Grainger County | +13.2 | R+73.7 | R+60.4 | 52.1% | 50.7% | 47.3% | 1.4% | 47.9% |
| Franklin County | +13.1 | R+53.2 | R+40.1 | 49.7% | 46.3% | 34.6% | 1.7% | 50.3% |
| Hancock County | +13.1 | R+76.5 | R+63.4 | 81.2% | 80.8% | 78.4% | 0.5% | 18.8% |
| Hickman County | +13.0 | R+61.1 | R+48.1 | 33.7% | 31.5% | 27.2% | 0.5% | 66.3% |
| Houston County | +13.0 | R+58.2 | R+45.2 | 36.6% | 35.1% | 27.3% | 1.4% | 63.4% |
| Monroe County | +12.9 | R+66.8 | R+53.9 | 59.8% | 57.1% | 52.1% | 2.2% | 40.2% |
| Unicoi County | +12.9 | R+62.0 | R+49.2 | 37.5% | 34.5% | 28.9% | 2.1% | 62.5% |
| Clay County | +12.6 | R+66.6 | R+54.0 | 45.2% | 44.3% | 40.5% | 1.0% | 54.7% |
| Meigs County | +12.6 | R+67.5 | R+54.9 | 48.1% | 47.1% | 40.7% | 0.0% | 51.9% |
| Lawrence County | +12.6 | R+69.1 | R+56.5 | 60.9% | 56.8% | 50.0% | 2.9% | 39.0% |
| Polk County | +12.6 | R+68.1 | R+55.5 | 68.6% | 65.6% | 62.5% | 1.8% | 31.4% |
| Hawkins County | +12.6 | R+68.8 | R+56.3 | 53.7% | 52.4% | 42.6% | 0.2% | 46.3% |
| Cocke County | +12.5 | R+68.2 | R+55.7 | 38.9% | 36.2% | 29.3% | 1.1% | 61.0% |
| Jackson County | +12.5 | R+62.5 | R+50.0 | 24.4% | 24.4% | 22.3% | 0.0% | 75.6% |
| Greene County | +12.4 | R+65.7 | R+53.3 | 48.8% | 45.4% | 33.6% | 1.9% | 51.2% |
| Perry County | +12.3 | R+69.5 | R+57.2 | 44.5% | 41.9% | 35.1% | 0.0% | 55.5% |
| White County | +12.2 | R+66.6 | R+54.4 | 44.4% | 41.5% | 36.2% | 0.8% | 55.6% |
| Lincoln County | +12.1 | R+64.7 | R+52.6 | 58.6% | 55.0% | 47.4% | 1.9% | 41.4% |
| Moore County | +11.8 | R+68.9 | R+57.1 | 32.4% | 32.4% | 22.6% | 0.0% | 67.5% |
| Shelby County | +11.8 | D+25.4 | D+37.2 | 65.1% | 57.3% | 31.0% | 5.9% | 31.4% |
| Chester County | +11.7 | R+64.9 | R+53.3 | 50.9% | 49.9% | 44.3% | 0.0% | 49.0% |
| Obion County | +11.3 | R+64.9 | R+53.6 | 74.6% | 71.9% | 59.8% | 2.7% | 25.4% |
| Carroll County | +10.8 | R+61.6 | R+50.7 | 56.2% | 55.1% | 44.9% | 0.3% | 43.8% |
| Dyer County | +10.8 | R+61.8 | R+51.0 | 61.0% | 57.6% | 47.4% | 2.0% | 39.0% |
| Pickett County | +10.8 | R+66.2 | R+55.3 | 38.3% | 38.3% | 34.8% | 0.0% | 61.7% |
| Sequatchie County | +10.7 | R+66.3 | R+55.6 | 36.2% | 34.5% | 29.2% | 1.7% | 63.7% |
| Benton County | +10.7 | R+62.9 | R+52.3 | 49.3% | 47.7% | 37.1% | 0.8% | 50.7% |
| Smith County | +10.6 | R+64.9 | R+54.3 | 36.7% | 35.7% | 25.8% | 0.0% | 63.3% |
| Giles County | +10.2 | R+55.0 | R+44.8 | 59.0% | 57.7% | 41.1% | 0.6% | 41.0% |
| Henderson County | +10.2 | R+67.9 | R+57.7 | 49.3% | 48.1% | 43.6% | 0.3% | 50.6% |
| Claiborne County | +10.1 | R+70.1 | R+60.0 | 57.1% | 55.5% | 53.8% | 0.3% | 42.9% |
| Stewart County | +10.0 | R+63.9 | R+53.8 | 53.6% | 48.3% | 35.9% | 1.6% | 46.4% |
| Fentress County | +10.0 | R+75.8 | R+65.8 | 36.5% | 34.0% | 29.1% | 0.6% | 63.5% |
| Johnson County | +9.8 | R+69.3 | R+59.5 | 52.0% | 51.2% | 47.8% | 0.8% | 48.0% |
| Decatur County | +9.8 | R+69.1 | R+59.3 | 55.9% | 55.4% | 46.0% | 0.4% | 44.1% |
| Henry County | +9.7 | R+55.3 | R+45.6 | 60.9% | 57.3% | 45.6% | 2.0% | 39.0% |
| Fayette County | +9.3 | R+42.4 | R+33.0 | 56.8% | 52.2% | 36.8% | 3.2% | 43.0% |
| Weakley County | +9.3 | R+58.4 | R+49.1 | 61.7% | 60.1% | 52.5% | 1.5% | 38.3% |
| McNairy County | +9.3 | R+68.4 | R+59.2 | 66.2% | 65.0% | 55.2% | 0.5% | 33.8% |
| Loudon County | +8.7 | R+53.0 | R+44.3 | 53.1% | 47.2% | 41.4% | 4.1% | 45.0% |
| Williamson County | +8.7 | R+32.4 | R+23.7 | 54.7% | 43.6% | 31.7% | 9.4% | 45.0% |
| Wayne County | +8.6 | R+76.9 | R+68.3 | 38.1% | 36.7% | 31.3% | 0.5% | 61.9% |
| Hardin County | +8.1 | R+71.0 | R+62.9 | 59.2% | 55.5% | 46.7% | 3.7% | 40.8% |
| Cumberland County | +5.6 | R+58.9 | R+53.3 | 53.6% | 47.7% | 38.9% | 3.1% | 46.4% |
Tennessee congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TN-01 | Harshbarger (R) | +20.5 | +14.6 | R+58.4 | R+37.9 | 55.5% | 43.0% | 2.2% |
| TN-02 | Burchett (R) | +17.8 | +15.6 | R+34.3 | R+16.6 | 53.7% | 38.1% | 3.6% |
| TN-03 | Fleischmann (R) | +18.8 | +15.5 | R+36.2 | R+17.4 | 58.8% | 44.2% | 2.4% |
| TN-04 | — | +24.4 | +18.8 | R+24.3 | D+0.1 | 44.4% | 28.6% | 3.8% |
| TN-05 | Hatcher (R) | +18.4 | +11.5 | R+23.4 | R+4.9 | 54.8% | 34.5% | 5.0% |
| TN-06 | Garrett (R) | +23.6 | +15.1 | R+26.9 | R+3.3 | 50.9% | 31.6% | 6.0% |
| TN-07 | Van Epps (R) | +20.6 | +17.4 | R+22.7 | R+2.2 | 51.2% | 33.4% | 5.2% |
| TN-08 | Kustoff (R) | +15.2 | +12.2 | R+20.4 | R+5.3 | 63.7% | 37.1% | 4.1% |
| TN-09 | — | +20.3 | +12.0 | R+21.4 | R+1.1 | 56.1% | 34.9% | 4.8% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.