Which Texas counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Starr County: +71.8
- Zapata County: +63.2
- Maverick County: +59.6
- Webb County: +49.5
- Hidalgo County: +49.3
Texas: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Texas move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Texas, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +25.8 points from Harris's 2024 margin (R+13.7 in 2024, D+12.1 in 2026), counting all votes together. 254 of 254 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +17.7 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Texas
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Texas counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Baylor County: 96.8% Christian, Dem movement +11.4
- Zavala County: 96.5% Christian, Dem movement +36.2
- Upton County: 95.7% Christian, Dem movement +22.6
- Titus County: 93.1% Christian, Dem movement +29.9
- Jim Hogg County: 92.6% Christian, Dem movement +42.1
Texas counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starr County | +71.8 | R+16.0 | D+55.8 | 84.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 77.0% | 15.6% |
| Zapata County | +63.2 | R+22.4 | D+40.7 | 65.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 55.0% | 35.0% |
| Maverick County | +59.6 | R+18.5 | D+41.1 | 77.2% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 64.6% | 22.8% |
| Webb County | +49.5 | R+2.2 | D+47.3 | 68.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 59.9% | 31.3% |
| Hidalgo County | +49.3 | R+2.9 | D+46.5 | 61.1% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 46.6% | 38.6% |
| Duval County | +46.5 | R+9.8 | D+36.7 | 85.9% | 25.0% | 24.3% | 60.9% | 14.1% |
| Reeves County | +44.6 | R+36.9 | D+7.7 | 25.7% | 14.0% | 12.9% | 7.9% | 74.3% |
| Cameron County | +44.3 | R+5.8 | D+38.5 | 54.4% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 36.8% | 45.4% |
| Jim Hogg County | +42.1 | D+8.3 | D+50.4 | 92.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 87.5% | 7.4% |
| Culberson County | +39.0 | R+16.9 | D+22.1 | 82.3% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 37.3% | 17.0% |
| Val Verde County | +38.8 | R+26.6 | D+12.2 | 41.5% | 16.2% | 14.2% | 22.1% | 58.4% |
| Willacy County | +38.3 | R+3.3 | D+35.0 | 22.9% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 13.2% | 77.0% |
| La Salle County | +37.4 | R+20.5 | D+16.9 | 85.9% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 75.5% | 14.1% |
| Deaf Smith County | +36.6 | R+51.7 | R+15.0 | 62.6% | 38.6% | 34.5% | 19.9% | 37.3% |
| Moore County | +36.5 | R+67.1 | R+30.6 | 61.0% | 49.8% | 47.0% | 8.5% | 38.3% |
| Zavala County | +36.2 | D+14.4 | D+50.5 | 96.5% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 83.8% | 3.5% |
| Dimmit County | +35.9 | D+3.3 | D+39.1 | 82.7% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 68.2% | 17.3% |
| Frio County | +35.9 | R+24.6 | D+11.3 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 10.3% | 80.1% |
| Pecos County | +35.7 | R+44.8 | R+9.1 | 51.4% | 17.7% | 13.5% | 29.9% | 48.5% |
| Kenedy County | +34.9 | R+46.8 | R+11.9 | 63.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| Ector County | +34.0 | R+52.9 | R+18.9 | 50.1% | 31.0% | 28.5% | 16.3% | 49.7% |
| Liberty County | +33.5 | R+61.6 | R+28.1 | 48.7% | 34.0% | 30.0% | 11.9% | 51.3% |
| Yoakum County | +33.1 | R+70.9 | R+37.8 | 90.1% | 44.1% | 33.6% | 42.1% | 9.9% |
| El Paso County | +32.8 | D+15.1 | D+47.9 | 61.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 48.0% | 37.6% |
| Crane County | +32.4 | R+72.8 | R+40.3 | 59.9% | 31.6% | 29.8% | 28.3% | 40.1% |
| Hudspeth County | +31.6 | R+46.6 | R+15.0 | 50.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 29.4% | 49.3% |
| Winkler County | +31.3 | R+70.5 | R+39.2 | 51.8% | 37.6% | 35.6% | 12.8% | 48.2% |
| Reagan County | +31.1 | R+69.4 | R+38.4 | 66.6% | 39.9% | 36.5% | 20.6% | 33.3% |
| Uvalde County | +31.0 | R+33.4 | R+2.4 | 56.9% | 32.7% | 24.6% | 21.5% | 42.9% |
| Jim Wells County | +30.9 | R+15.5 | D+15.4 | 74.6% | 19.9% | 18.5% | 52.2% | 25.4% |
| Brooks County | +30.9 | D+9.6 | D+40.5 | 71.6% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 60.9% | 28.4% |
| Brazos County | +30.8 | R+24.9 | D+6.0 | 39.0% | 21.2% | 14.4% | 15.8% | 60.2% |
| Caldwell County | +30.1 | R+14.4 | D+15.7 | 45.4% | 18.3% | 12.6% | 23.2% | 54.5% |
| Titus County | +29.9 | R+54.7 | R+24.8 | 93.1% | 60.6% | 50.7% | 29.4% | 6.9% |
| Cochran County | +29.7 | R+65.7 | R+36.0 | 92.3% | 53.7% | 44.6% | 38.6% | 7.7% |
| Bastrop County | +29.3 | R+18.4 | D+10.9 | 44.1% | 19.6% | 14.9% | 22.4% | 55.8% |
| Kaufman County | +29.1 | R+27.9 | D+1.3 | 40.6% | 31.6% | 25.9% | 6.8% | 59.1% |
| Andrews County | +29.0 | R+72.6 | R+43.6 | 65.4% | 47.9% | 42.8% | 14.8% | 34.6% |
| Atascosa County | +28.4 | R+43.3 | R+14.9 | 61.9% | 34.1% | 31.6% | 25.9% | 38.1% |
| Hale County | +28.3 | R+58.0 | R+29.7 | 83.3% | 52.5% | 46.2% | 28.4% | 16.7% |
| Dallam County | +28.2 | R+78.3 | R+50.0 | 52.5% | 44.3% | 33.5% | 4.2% | 47.5% |
| Ochiltree County | +28.0 | R+81.6 | R+53.6 | 77.0% | 51.5% | 45.1% | 22.5% | 23.0% |
| Kleberg County | +27.7 | R+12.7 | D+14.9 | 62.2% | 17.9% | 14.3% | 41.3% | 37.4% |
| Harris County | +27.4 | D+5.5 | D+33.0 | 55.4% | 33.2% | 25.6% | 19.4% | 41.3% |
| Fort Bend County | +27.0 | D+1.6 | D+28.6 | 39.4% | 21.0% | 16.7% | 15.9% | 57.4% |
| Ellis County | +26.6 | R+31.1 | R+4.5 | 50.6% | 41.4% | 34.8% | 7.9% | 49.3% |
| Bailey County | +26.4 | R+61.1 | R+34.7 | 60.5% | 36.2% | 31.7% | 22.4% | 39.5% |
| Hays County | +26.4 | D+5.6 | D+32.0 | 37.8% | 18.4% | 15.2% | 17.0% | 60.9% |
| Bee County | +26.2 | R+39.9 | R+13.6 | 53.3% | 20.8% | 15.9% | 30.5% | 46.7% |
| Bexar County | +25.7 | D+9.8 | D+35.5 | 51.5% | 21.2% | 17.6% | 27.6% | 47.0% |
| Sherman County | +25.7 | R+88.2 | R+62.5 | 71.0% | 62.0% | 49.7% | 9.0% | 29.0% |
| Nacogdoches County | +25.6 | R+38.8 | R+13.2 | 55.4% | 40.9% | 30.8% | 12.4% | 44.2% |
| Potter County | +25.4 | R+44.4 | R+19.1 | 76.2% | 54.7% | 49.2% | 18.6% | 22.5% |
| Brazoria County | +25.1 | R+19.7 | D+5.4 | 53.6% | 31.5% | 26.8% | 19.3% | 42.8% |
| Crockett County | +24.7 | R+53.9 | R+29.2 | 47.8% | 29.1% | 20.3% | 18.7% | 52.2% |
| Parmer County | +24.7 | R+70.1 | R+45.4 | 58.4% | 45.8% | 38.7% | 11.7% | 41.5% |
| Presidio County | +24.6 | D+30.2 | D+54.9 | 71.5% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 56.6% | 28.0% |
| Tarrant County | +24.4 | R+5.1 | D+19.2 | 58.7% | 39.2% | 30.5% | 17.0% | 39.3% |
| Johnson County | +24.3 | R+51.4 | R+27.2 | 36.5% | 32.9% | 29.1% | 1.8% | 63.5% |
| Ward County | +24.1 | R+66.1 | R+42.0 | 67.2% | 39.0% | 38.0% | 23.7% | 32.7% |
| Floyd County | +24.0 | R+65.0 | R+41.0 | 67.9% | 46.8% | 36.2% | 21.1% | 32.1% |
| Brewster County | +23.9 | R+12.6 | D+11.3 | 50.5% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 36.1% | 48.8% |
| Gonzales County | +23.8 | R+54.8 | R+31.0 | 83.2% | 41.3% | 30.0% | 40.6% | 16.8% |
| Crosby County | +23.8 | R+51.3 | R+27.6 | 77.8% | 45.9% | 38.6% | 32.0% | 22.1% |
| Guadalupe County | +23.7 | R+29.5 | R+5.8 | 34.1% | 21.5% | 16.2% | 10.3% | 65.9% |
| San Patricio County | +23.7 | R+36.4 | R+12.7 | 60.7% | 19.2% | 15.6% | 38.1% | 37.4% |
| Dallas County | +23.4 | D+22.2 | D+45.6 | 55.0% | 36.0% | 21.9% | 16.5% | 41.0% |
| Montgomery County | +23.2 | R+45.5 | R+22.2 | 47.0% | 28.7% | 22.0% | 15.1% | 50.2% |
| Collin County | +23.2 | R+11.2 | D+12.1 | 41.2% | 25.0% | 18.6% | 13.2% | 52.8% |
| Waller County | +23.2 | R+25.0 | R+1.8 | 31.9% | 17.8% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 66.4% |
| Midland County | +23.1 | R+60.5 | R+37.5 | 64.5% | 46.3% | 35.6% | 15.2% | 34.8% |
| Lubbock County | +23.0 | R+39.5 | R+16.5 | 50.3% | 35.4% | 28.6% | 12.7% | 48.8% |
| Williamson County | +22.8 | R+2.5 | D+20.3 | 38.6% | 18.5% | 13.9% | 17.0% | 59.3% |
| Navarro County | +22.7 | R+51.8 | R+29.1 | 45.0% | 38.7% | 27.5% | 4.5% | 55.0% |
| Nueces County | +22.7 | R+11.5 | D+11.2 | 63.2% | 20.6% | 16.9% | 40.2% | 36.2% |
| Upton County | +22.6 | R+77.0 | R+54.4 | 95.7% | 49.5% | 46.0% | 36.8% | 4.3% |
| Howard County | +22.5 | R+62.8 | R+40.3 | 55.2% | 37.2% | 32.0% | 15.9% | 44.8% |
| McLennan County | +22.4 | R+30.9 | R+8.5 | 56.9% | 35.1% | 27.3% | 19.8% | 42.7% |
| Gregg County | +22.1 | R+42.2 | R+20.1 | 86.1% | 70.1% | 57.5% | 13.3% | 13.6% |
| Erath County | +22.1 | R+68.0 | R+45.9 | 47.6% | 38.7% | 31.6% | 7.3% | 52.4% |
| Jefferson County | +22.1 | R+8.9 | D+13.2 | 68.5% | 39.5% | 25.5% | 26.4% | 30.1% |
| Terry County | +21.8 | R+65.2 | R+43.4 | 59.4% | 40.3% | 38.2% | 18.2% | 40.6% |
| Kinney County | +21.8 | R+50.5 | R+28.7 | 59.7% | 29.4% | 21.5% | 30.3% | 40.3% |
| Hunt County | +21.6 | R+55.5 | R+33.9 | 39.5% | 35.6% | 31.0% | 2.7% | 57.4% |
| Angelina County | +21.6 | R+52.0 | R+30.4 | 70.0% | 54.2% | 38.8% | 14.0% | 29.7% |
| Denton County | +21.6 | R+13.2 | D+8.4 | 39.7% | 26.3% | 23.1% | 10.2% | 59.3% |
| Galveston County | +21.5 | R+27.4 | R+5.9 | 42.8% | 24.9% | 17.3% | 16.1% | 55.2% |
| Coryell County | +21.4 | R+40.7 | R+19.3 | 41.4% | 30.1% | 26.9% | 7.4% | 58.6% |
| Bell County | +21.4 | R+16.2 | D+5.1 | 45.5% | 30.8% | 24.8% | 12.6% | 53.1% |
| Matagorda County | +21.2 | R+50.5 | R+29.4 | 55.7% | 33.0% | 26.7% | 20.6% | 44.3% |
| Tom Green County | +21.1 | R+48.0 | R+26.9 | 60.1% | 39.1% | 33.7% | 18.5% | 39.8% |
| Medina County | +20.9 | R+42.7 | R+21.8 | 68.5% | 17.6% | 14.3% | 48.6% | 31.5% |
| Walker County | +20.9 | R+39.9 | R+19.1 | 53.0% | 34.4% | 28.1% | 16.9% | 46.9% |
| Hansford County | +20.6 | R+84.8 | R+64.2 | 76.9% | 58.1% | 36.4% | 18.8% | 23.1% |
| Smith County | +20.5 | R+45.1 | R+24.6 | 61.1% | 49.0% | 39.5% | 9.6% | 38.4% |
| Calhoun County | +20.4 | R+52.2 | R+31.8 | 67.1% | 37.3% | 30.1% | 26.6% | 29.5% |
| Hockley County | +20.4 | R+66.3 | R+45.9 | 61.9% | 39.0% | 33.4% | 21.5% | 38.1% |
| Limestone County | +20.4 | R+56.9 | R+36.5 | 65.2% | 52.1% | 38.7% | 9.8% | 34.8% |
| Karnes County | +20.0 | R+58.1 | R+38.1 | 63.3% | 21.9% | 16.3% | 41.4% | 36.7% |
| Wichita County | +19.8 | R+44.0 | R+24.2 | 68.0% | 48.3% | 42.5% | 17.3% | 31.7% |
| Nolan County | +19.8 | R+59.2 | R+39.5 | 58.1% | 38.4% | 27.2% | 15.9% | 41.8% |
| Chambers County | +19.7 | R+65.6 | R+45.9 | 35.7% | 23.4% | 16.5% | 11.1% | 64.3% |
| Hemphill County | +19.6 | R+75.8 | R+56.2 | 75.8% | 57.5% | 41.0% | 18.3% | 24.2% |
| Robertson County | +19.6 | R+52.1 | R+32.5 | 66.7% | 39.3% | 30.2% | 24.4% | 33.3% |
| Lamb County | +19.6 | R+64.3 | R+44.7 | 75.4% | 49.1% | 40.3% | 25.2% | 24.6% |
| Schleicher County* | +19.5 | R+64.4 | R+44.9 | 114.0% | 52.1% | 43.0% | 61.9% | -14.0% |
| Victoria County | +19.5 | R+42.6 | R+23.1 | 56.1% | 28.2% | 22.9% | 26.3% | 43.6% |
| Sutton County | +19.4 | R+67.1 | R+47.6 | 84.8% | 46.7% | 35.0% | 34.6% | 14.6% |
| Randall County | +19.3 | R+60.4 | R+41.1 | 49.1% | 44.9% | 40.8% | 1.3% | 50.5% |
| Gray County | +19.3 | R+77.1 | R+57.8 | 83.4% | 65.6% | 60.5% | 14.9% | 16.5% |
| Gaines County | +19.2 | R+82.6 | R+63.4 | 45.3% | 33.5% | 30.9% | 10.9% | 54.7% |
| Travis County | +19.2 | D+39.3 | D+58.5 | 41.0% | 19.6% | 13.0% | 19.5% | 56.1% |
| Camp County | +19.1 | R+53.6 | R+34.5 | 64.3% | 47.5% | 32.1% | 16.8% | 35.7% |
| Rusk County | +19.1 | R+59.4 | R+40.3 | 43.2% | 35.1% | 27.4% | 6.3% | 56.7% |
| Hopkins County | +19.1 | R+64.6 | R+45.5 | 55.7% | 47.9% | 35.6% | 5.3% | 44.2% |
| Swisher County | +18.9 | R+63.4 | R+44.5 | 69.3% | 60.3% | 51.3% | 9.0% | 30.5% |
| Cherokee County | +18.9 | R+62.7 | R+43.8 | 59.8% | 47.6% | 36.7% | 10.7% | 40.2% |
| Palo Pinto County | +18.7 | R+67.1 | R+48.4 | 55.4% | 45.1% | 40.6% | 8.3% | 44.4% |
| Taylor County | +18.7 | R+49.8 | R+31.1 | 62.7% | 53.0% | 45.8% | 7.6% | 37.2% |
| Knox County | +18.6 | R+68.5 | R+49.9 | 75.3% | 63.1% | 47.6% | 12.2% | 24.7% |
| Rockwall County | +18.4 | R+40.9 | R+22.5 | 73.8% | 59.0% | 53.3% | 12.5% | 25.9% |
| Hill County | +18.2 | R+64.4 | R+46.2 | 61.5% | 44.7% | 37.0% | 15.1% | 38.5% |
| Wilson County | +18.1 | R+53.7 | R+35.6 | 40.5% | 12.2% | 9.5% | 27.3% | 59.5% |
| Castro County | +18.0 | R+58.2 | R+40.2 | 75.3% | 36.3% | 30.8% | 39.0% | 24.7% |
| Lee County | +18.0 | R+60.4 | R+42.5 | 67.5% | 41.7% | 35.1% | 25.8% | 32.4% |
| Sterling County | +17.9 | R+85.8 | R+67.9 | 72.0% | 60.9% | 37.5% | 11.2% | 27.5% |
| Wise County | +17.8 | R+70.0 | R+52.3 | 46.1% | 37.2% | 34.7% | 7.2% | 53.9% |
| Cooke County | +17.6 | R+66.9 | R+49.3 | 68.7% | 37.5% | 32.7% | 29.5% | 31.2% |
| Henderson County | +17.4 | R+63.5 | R+46.1 | 48.5% | 39.2% | 32.4% | 8.1% | 51.5% |
| Milam County | +17.4 | R+57.3 | R+40.0 | 59.5% | 40.8% | 30.6% | 17.4% | 40.5% |
| Edwards County* | +17.2 | R+73.2 | R+56.0 | 103.6% | 68.8% | 52.5% | 34.7% | -3.6% |
| Loving County | +17.2 | R+78.3 | R+61.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Wharton County | +17.1 | R+51.8 | R+34.7 | 73.3% | 35.3% | 26.2% | 35.9% | 26.7% |
| Shelby County | +17.1 | R+64.6 | R+47.4 | 53.5% | 49.8% | 36.8% | 2.7% | 46.5% |
| Jones County | +17.1 | R+73.2 | R+56.0 | 46.6% | 37.8% | 30.5% | 8.8% | 53.4% |
| Kerr County | +17.1 | R+54.3 | R+37.3 | 62.7% | 39.1% | 28.9% | 21.1% | 37.1% |
| Madison County | +17.0 | R+64.4 | R+47.3 | 49.7% | 31.0% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 50.3% |
| Hutchinson County | +17.0 | R+77.2 | R+60.2 | 53.1% | 46.8% | 42.6% | 3.6% | 46.9% |
| Grayson County | +16.8 | R+54.3 | R+37.4 | 45.2% | 38.5% | 32.1% | 4.8% | 54.5% |
| Martin County | +16.8 | R+75.8 | R+58.9 | 61.0% | 40.8% | 33.6% | 20.2% | 39.0% |
| Orange County | +16.8 | R+66.7 | R+49.9 | 58.5% | 42.9% | 37.4% | 12.7% | 41.5% |
| Burnet County | +16.8 | R+55.7 | R+38.9 | 53.1% | 29.6% | 22.6% | 21.6% | 46.3% |
| Menard County | +16.6 | R+66.5 | R+49.9 | 50.1% | 38.4% | 25.4% | 11.6% | 49.9% |
| Austin County | +16.6 | R+62.7 | R+46.1 | 61.2% | 36.2% | 19.3% | 21.8% | 38.8% |
| Bowie County | +16.6 | R+48.7 | R+32.1 | 70.2% | 63.6% | 48.3% | 4.8% | 29.7% |
| Jackson County | +16.5 | R+70.8 | R+54.3 | 61.3% | 35.6% | 28.0% | 24.8% | 38.7% |
| Jeff Davis County | +16.4 | R+21.3 | R+4.8 | 35.9% | 20.8% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 64.1% |
| Dawson County | +16.4 | R+61.0 | R+44.6 | 66.4% | 42.8% | 38.2% | 21.8% | 33.5% |
| Grimes County | +16.4 | R+60.3 | R+43.8 | 48.1% | 15.4% | 12.2% | 29.3% | 51.9% |
| Garza County | +16.4 | R+72.6 | R+56.2 | 47.4% | 28.5% | 20.4% | 18.9% | 52.6% |
| Young County | +16.4 | R+76.2 | R+59.9 | 87.8% | 75.0% | 64.7% | 10.3% | 11.8% |
| Fayette County | +16.3 | R+61.4 | R+45.1 | 83.5% | 38.0% | 22.6% | 45.5% | 16.5% |
| Anderson County | +16.3 | R+61.8 | R+45.5 | 53.6% | 43.1% | 34.9% | 8.7% | 46.4% |
| Comal County | +16.2 | R+45.5 | R+29.2 | 59.5% | 22.4% | 16.3% | 33.8% | 39.5% |
| Comanche County | +16.2 | R+74.0 | R+57.8 | 59.6% | 51.0% | 43.1% | 8.6% | 40.4% |
| Wilbarger County | +16.2 | R+60.6 | R+44.4 | 86.2% | 77.4% | 68.1% | 5.5% | 13.5% |
| Falls County | +16.2 | R+44.7 | R+28.6 | 54.2% | 35.2% | 24.9% | 18.5% | 45.8% |
| Terrell County* | +16.1 | R+55.1 | R+38.9 | 101.2% | 53.6% | 53.6% | 47.6% | -1.2% |
| San Augustine County | +16.0 | R+56.3 | R+40.2 | 49.4% | 46.8% | 36.7% | 2.5% | 50.6% |
| Harrison County | +15.9 | R+50.6 | R+34.7 | 46.5% | 41.1% | 33.2% | 3.9% | 53.3% |
| Concho County | +15.9 | R+73.9 | R+58.0 | 41.0% | 25.5% | 21.5% | 15.5% | 59.0% |
| Freestone County | +15.8 | R+66.3 | R+50.6 | 54.4% | 52.1% | 37.6% | 2.3% | 44.9% |
| Lampasas County | +15.7 | R+59.6 | R+43.8 | 44.9% | 30.9% | 26.0% | 13.0% | 55.0% |
| Fannin County | +15.7 | R+67.4 | R+51.7 | 49.8% | 45.2% | 39.3% | 3.1% | 50.2% |
| Parker County | +15.5 | R+66.4 | R+50.9 | 44.5% | 34.9% | 29.8% | 7.1% | 55.5% |
| Stephens County | +15.5 | R+79.3 | R+63.9 | 82.4% | 70.5% | 65.0% | 10.7% | 17.6% |
| Lamar County | +15.4 | R+61.0 | R+45.6 | 52.1% | 44.2% | 37.0% | 6.6% | 47.6% |
| San Jacinto County | +15.4 | R+65.3 | R+49.9 | 20.9% | 20.1% | 16.0% | 0.9% | 78.7% |
| Scurry County | +15.2 | R+73.6 | R+58.5 | 57.5% | 38.6% | 35.7% | 16.0% | 42.5% |
| Hartley County | +15.2 | R+83.3 | R+68.2 | 38.7% | 33.1% | 32.8% | 5.6% | 61.3% |
| Jasper County | +15.1 | R+66.6 | R+51.5 | 67.1% | 61.5% | 51.1% | 3.2% | 32.9% |
| Refugio County | +15.0 | R+39.5 | R+24.5 | 82.0% | 48.8% | 43.5% | 31.5% | 17.9% |
| Upshur County | +15.0 | R+71.0 | R+56.0 | 43.5% | 37.0% | 29.4% | 1.1% | 55.5% |
| Bosque County | +14.8 | R+67.3 | R+52.5 | 47.4% | 43.3% | 32.1% | 4.1% | 52.6% |
| San Saba County | +14.7 | R+79.0 | R+64.3 | 77.7% | 63.0% | 57.7% | 14.7% | 22.2% |
| Burleson County | +14.6 | R+62.8 | R+48.2 | 66.5% | 33.9% | 24.6% | 28.8% | 33.4% |
| Lynn County | +14.6 | R+70.3 | R+55.7 | 77.6% | 52.5% | 43.6% | 25.0% | 22.4% |
| Delta County | +14.5 | R+69.7 | R+55.2 | 51.5% | 51.5% | 40.8% | 0.0% | 48.5% |
| Hardeman County | +14.4 | R+72.7 | R+58.3 | 72.2% | 66.5% | 52.7% | 5.7% | 27.7% |
| Kimble County | +14.4 | R+77.6 | R+63.3 | 45.5% | 34.2% | 22.4% | 9.8% | 54.5% |
| Hardin County | +14.3 | R+75.8 | R+61.5 | 47.3% | 36.7% | 32.1% | 9.0% | 52.7% |
| Childress County | +14.2 | R+76.1 | R+61.8 | 46.3% | 38.7% | 30.2% | 3.8% | 53.7% |
| Carson County | +14.2 | R+81.2 | R+67.0 | 57.3% | 49.3% | 40.7% | 8.1% | 42.6% |
| Runnels County | +14.1 | R+77.1 | R+63.0 | 85.2% | 55.8% | 50.2% | 28.6% | 14.5% |
| Eastland County | +14.1 | R+77.5 | R+63.4 | 90.1% | 83.1% | 79.0% | 5.9% | 9.9% |
| Colorado County | +13.9 | R+57.2 | R+43.3 | 60.4% | 19.5% | 8.7% | 39.1% | 39.6% |
| Van Zandt County | +13.9 | R+74.8 | R+60.9 | 42.6% | 39.0% | 32.3% | 2.7% | 57.4% |
| Gillespie County | +13.8 | R+60.9 | R+47.1 | 83.1% | 38.0% | 25.7% | 41.8% | 16.9% |
| Franklin County | +13.8 | R+68.9 | R+55.1 | 46.5% | 39.0% | 31.2% | 7.5% | 53.5% |
| Trinity County | +13.7 | R+67.0 | R+53.3 | 48.1% | 43.6% | 37.0% | 4.5% | 51.9% |
| Morris County* | +13.7 | R+51.2 | R+37.5 | 147.8% | 138.7% | 123.0% | 7.5% | -47.9% |
| Panola County | +13.7 | R+66.4 | R+52.7 | 61.6% | 52.6% | 41.3% | 6.6% | 38.4% |
| Hood County | +13.6 | R+66.0 | R+52.4 | 50.4% | 39.6% | 33.9% | 8.7% | 49.6% |
| Jack County | +13.5 | R+82.3 | R+68.8 | 46.2% | 37.3% | 29.1% | 8.8% | 53.8% |
| Red River County | +13.5 | R+61.8 | R+48.3 | 53.4% | 49.0% | 38.8% | 3.2% | 46.6% |
| Somervell County | +13.4 | R+70.8 | R+57.4 | 56.5% | 48.2% | 40.5% | 8.3% | 43.5% |
| Throckmorton County* | +13.4 | R+83.3 | R+69.9 | 111.2% | 111.2% | 89.6% | 0.0% | -11.4% |
| Callahan County | +13.3 | R+77.6 | R+64.3 | 51.6% | 49.8% | 42.8% | 1.8% | 48.4% |
| Washington County | +13.3 | R+54.7 | R+41.4 | 70.9% | 43.4% | 20.7% | 25.7% | 28.6% |
| Goliad County | +13.3 | R+60.2 | R+47.0 | 37.4% | 22.9% | 16.4% | 14.5% | 62.5% |
| Haskell County* | +13.2 | R+71.5 | R+58.2 | 102.4% | 90.8% | 80.5% | 11.5% | -2.4% |
| Brown County | +13.1 | R+73.9 | R+60.8 | 62.4% | 56.8% | 48.4% | 3.9% | 37.6% |
| Aransas County | +13.1 | R+55.7 | R+42.6 | 57.2% | 34.2% | 29.2% | 20.7% | 41.6% |
| Kent County | +13.1 | R+76.4 | R+63.3 | 88.4% | 81.8% | 76.0% | 6.6% | 11.6% |
| Polk County | +13.0 | R+58.9 | R+45.9 | 34.0% | 27.0% | 17.4% | 5.1% | 65.9% |
| DeWitt County | +13.0 | R+67.0 | R+54.0 | 45.3% | 26.5% | 12.9% | 16.1% | 54.7% |
| Oldham County | +12.9 | R+84.3 | R+71.4 | 29.2% | 20.4% | 20.4% | 8.9% | 70.8% |
| Hamilton County | +12.8 | R+71.3 | R+58.5 | 48.6% | 44.9% | 37.0% | 3.8% | 51.4% |
| Mason County | +12.8 | R+65.0 | R+52.2 | 78.0% | 60.5% | 30.0% | 17.5% | 22.0% |
| Kendall County | +12.5 | R+55.7 | R+43.2 | 77.0% | 35.8% | 26.8% | 37.5% | 22.8% |
| Coke County | +12.4 | R+79.6 | R+67.2 | 70.1% | 66.5% | 46.4% | 3.6% | 29.8% |
| Hall County | +12.3 | R+73.4 | R+61.0 | 44.2% | 38.8% | 27.8% | 5.5% | 55.7% |
| Wheeler County | +12.3 | R+84.7 | R+72.4 | 36.5% | 33.8% | 21.7% | 1.2% | 63.5% |
| Foard County | +12.2 | R+65.3 | R+53.1 | 57.1% | 51.5% | 37.0% | 5.6% | 42.9% |
| Live Oak County | +12.2 | R+69.6 | R+57.4 | 58.4% | 31.6% | 27.5% | 26.1% | 41.5% |
| McCulloch County | +12.2 | R+73.4 | R+61.2 | 48.3% | 33.2% | 30.0% | 11.2% | 51.7% |
| McMullen County | +12.2 | R+84.4 | R+72.2 | 54.8% | 21.5% | 21.5% | 33.3% | 45.2% |
| Fisher County | +12.1 | R+63.3 | R+51.1 | 92.3% | 77.6% | 68.0% | 14.7% | 7.7% |
| Cottle County | +12.1 | R+72.5 | R+60.4 | 89.8% | 75.6% | 59.2% | 14.2% | 10.2% |
| Lipscomb County | +12.1 | R+79.6 | R+67.5 | 91.4% | 66.9% | 44.8% | 24.5% | 8.6% |
| Leon County | +12.0 | R+76.7 | R+64.7 | 56.1% | 49.6% | 34.4% | 5.5% | 43.9% |
| Newton County | +11.8 | R+66.6 | R+54.9 | 34.9% | 33.7% | 25.7% | 1.2% | 65.1% |
| Donley County | +11.8 | R+78.2 | R+66.4 | 82.7% | 77.0% | 65.3% | 4.6% | 17.3% |
| Clay County | +11.7 | R+79.7 | R+67.9 | 56.7% | 55.0% | 51.1% | 1.7% | 43.3% |
| Dickens County | +11.6 | R+70.3 | R+58.7 | 77.1% | 60.3% | 48.8% | 16.8% | 22.9% |
| Tyler County | +11.6 | R+73.5 | R+61.9 | 52.6% | 45.4% | 42.3% | 3.4% | 47.4% |
| Mills County | +11.4 | R+76.9 | R+65.5 | 86.4% | 76.3% | 68.0% | 10.1% | 13.6% |
| Rains County | +11.4 | R+72.9 | R+61.6 | 45.8% | 40.9% | 37.6% | 4.9% | 54.1% |
| Baylor County | +11.4 | R+77.1 | R+65.7 | 96.8% | 70.0% | 59.5% | 20.9% | 3.2% |
| Marion County | +11.1 | R+52.5 | R+41.4 | 42.3% | 38.3% | 22.8% | 2.6% | 57.6% |
| Mitchell County | +11.1 | R+71.3 | R+60.2 | 74.3% | 39.3% | 32.8% | 35.0% | 25.7% |
| Llano County | +11.0 | R+60.9 | R+49.8 | 41.5% | 31.9% | 26.0% | 7.8% | 58.5% |
| Montague County | +11.0 | R+77.7 | R+66.7 | 43.7% | 36.3% | 32.2% | 6.4% | 56.3% |
| Collingsworth County* | +10.9 | R+77.5 | R+66.6 | 124.6% | 119.7% | 101.0% | 4.9% | -24.8% |
| Blanco County | +10.9 | R+52.5 | R+41.7 | 45.4% | 24.9% | 15.2% | 17.2% | 54.5% |
| Wood County | +10.7 | R+69.7 | R+59.0 | 68.9% | 61.7% | 47.7% | 5.5% | 31.1% |
| Lavaca County | +10.5 | R+76.1 | R+65.6 | 86.3% | 23.8% | 15.5% | 61.9% | 13.7% |
| Real County | +10.4 | R+66.9 | R+56.5 | 70.4% | 48.7% | 40.9% | 21.8% | 29.6% |
| Bandera County | +10.4 | R+61.9 | R+51.5 | 54.6% | 27.6% | 20.5% | 25.4% | 37.8% |
| Armstrong County | +10.2 | R+85.8 | R+75.6 | 45.7% | 45.7% | 28.0% | 0.0% | 54.3% |
| Archer County | +10.2 | R+79.3 | R+69.2 | 73.6% | 47.7% | 42.7% | 25.9% | 26.4% |
| Cass County | +10.1 | R+65.7 | R+55.6 | 67.4% | 65.1% | 54.8% | 1.1% | 32.6% |
| Coleman County | +9.9 | R+79.0 | R+69.1 | 63.0% | 54.4% | 47.4% | 8.6% | 37.0% |
| Briscoe County | +9.7 | R+79.8 | R+70.1 | 88.5% | 81.2% | 59.9% | 7.3% | 11.4% |
| Houston County | +9.6 | R+55.4 | R+45.7 | 57.8% | 49.6% | 35.2% | 8.2% | 42.2% |
| Glasscock County | +9.4 | R+88.2 | R+78.8 | 75.8% | 10.5% | 7.2% | 65.3% | 24.2% |
| Sabine County | +9.3 | R+78.5 | R+69.2 | 67.9% | 64.8% | 44.3% | 1.0% | 32.1% |
| Irion County | +9.0 | R+75.6 | R+66.6 | 39.5% | 22.7% | 3.0% | 16.9% | 60.5% |
| Shackelford County | +8.2 | R+82.2 | R+74.0 | 58.6% | 54.1% | 44.7% | 4.4% | 41.4% |
| Motley County | +8.2 | R+88.8 | R+80.6 | 64.3% | 57.2% | 47.7% | 7.1% | 35.7% |
| Borden County | +8.1 | R+91.5 | R+83.3 | 43.4% | 43.4% | 43.4% | 0.0% | 56.6% |
| Stonewall County* | +7.8 | R+69.0 | R+61.2 | 167.0% | 153.3% | 111.2% | 13.7% | -67.0% |
| Roberts County | +7.7 | R+92.5 | R+84.8 | 62.0% | 62.0% | 38.0% | 0.0% | 38.0% |
| King County* | +6.6 | R+91.1 | R+84.5 | 452.5% | 452.5% | 452.5% | 0.0% | -352.5% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 9 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
Texas congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-01 | Moran (R) | +11.8 | +19.1 | R+49.9 | R+38.1 | 62.1% | 41.0% | 8.4% |
| TX-02 | Toth (R) | +21.2 | +25.5 | R+23.1 | R+2.0 | 51.5% | 23.9% | 17.4% |
| TX-03 | Self (R) | +18.5 | +22.8 | R+24.0 | R+5.5 | 44.6% | 22.8% | 12.2% |
| TX-04 | Fallon (R) | +13.0 | +20.9 | R+25.1 | R+12.1 | 43.5% | 24.3% | 10.2% |
| TX-05 | Gooden (R) | +18.9 | +22.8 | R+21.8 | R+2.9 | 49.6% | 25.8% | 11.5% |
| TX-06 | Ellzey (R) | +18.9 | +24.8 | R+23.3 | R+4.3 | 51.6% | 30.1% | 11.1% |
| TX-07 | Fletcher (D) | +19.2 | +27.3 | D+24.1 | D+43.3 | 51.4% | 23.4% | 18.5% |
| TX-08 | Hart Steinmann (R) | +21.6 | +24.9 | R+28.0 | R+6.4 | 49.3% | 22.8% | 16.6% |
| TX-09 | Gutierrez (D) | +35.2 | +28.3 | R+20.1 | D+15.1 | 54.4% | 26.3% | 18.3% |
| TX-10 | Gober (R) | +15.4 | +21.1 | R+22.9 | R+7.5 | 42.5% | 16.9% | 16.8% |
| TX-11 | Pfluger (R) | +15.8 | +20.9 | R+34.8 | R+19.0 | 52.9% | 27.3% | 16.3% |
| TX-12 | Goldman (R) | +17.9 | +22.5 | R+24.1 | R+6.2 | 55.8% | 30.4% | 15.0% |
| TX-13 | Jackson (R) | +16.2 | +20.0 | R+46.7 | R+30.5 | 56.4% | 38.6% | 10.1% |
| TX-14 | Weber (R) | +16.6 | +22.5 | R+24.6 | R+8.0 | 49.3% | 22.0% | 17.7% |
| TX-15 | Pulido (D) | +42.6 | +39.8 | R+18.0 | D+24.6 | 62.6% | 13.2% | 43.7% |
| TX-16 | Escobar (D) | +24.9 | +32.8 | D+16.6 | D+41.5 | 61.9% | 9.9% | 48.0% |
| TX-17 | Sessions (R) | +14.8 | +21.6 | R+21.9 | R+7.1 | 48.6% | 23.0% | 16.4% |
| TX-18 | Menefee (D) | +16.4 | +27.3 | D+55.7 | D+72.1 | 51.7% | 23.5% | 18.6% |
| TX-19 | Sell (R) | +13.2 | +21.3 | R+52.2 | R+39.0 | 58.2% | 35.5% | 13.9% |
| TX-20 | Castro (D) | +26.4 | +25.7 | D+28.9 | D+55.2 | 51.5% | 17.6% | 27.6% |
| TX-21 | Teixeira (R) | +13.0 | +20.6 | R+22.1 | R+9.0 | 55.3% | 18.8% | 28.1% |
| TX-22 | Nehls (R) | +19.0 | +26.7 | R+22.7 | R+3.6 | 45.0% | 20.2% | 17.2% |
| TX-23 | Padilla Stout (D) | +23.1 | +28.4 | R+15.0 | D+8.2 | 55.1% | 16.7% | 32.2% |
| TX-24 | Van Duyne (R) | +9.5 | +24.0 | R+16.4 | R+6.9 | 57.5% | 27.8% | 16.8% |
| TX-25 | Williams (R) | +16.9 | +20.9 | R+24.3 | R+7.5 | 55.4% | 34.1% | 11.9% |
| TX-26 | Gill (R) | +13.8 | +21.1 | R+24.1 | R+10.4 | 41.7% | 24.5% | 11.0% |
| TX-27 | Cloud (R) | +19.2 | +22.2 | R+21.5 | R+2.3 | 51.6% | 17.8% | 24.5% |
| TX-28 | Cuellar (D) | +46.6 | +48.5 | R+10.5 | D+36.1 | 67.0% | 10.4% | 52.9% |
| TX-29 | Garcia (D) | +29.0 | +27.4 | D+30.9 | D+59.9 | 55.4% | 25.6% | 19.4% |
| TX-30 | Haynes (D) | +17.5 | +23.7 | D+47.8 | D+65.3 | 56.1% | 24.6% | 16.7% |
| TX-31 | Carter (R) | +13.2 | +21.4 | R+22.1 | R+8.9 | 42.6% | 19.8% | 14.9% |
| TX-32 | Yarbrough (R) | +15.2 | +20.7 | R+18.1 | R+2.9 | 57.6% | 30.8% | 13.1% |
| TX-33 | Allred (D) | +23.8 | +23.4 | D+33.3 | D+57.1 | 55.0% | 21.9% | 16.5% |
| TX-34 | Gonzalez (D) | +26.1 | +34.1 | R+10.2 | D+15.8 | 57.8% | 14.6% | 37.9% |
| TX-35 | Garcia (D) | +21.4 | +24.4 | R+10.6 | D+10.8 | 45.9% | 16.5% | 23.0% |
| TX-36 | Babin (R) | +18.1 | +22.8 | R+25.3 | R+7.1 | 56.5% | 28.6% | 16.8% |
| TX-37 | Casar (D) | +9.8 | +19.2 | D+57.7 | D+67.5 | 41.0% | 13.0% | 19.5% |
| TX-38 | Bonck (R) | +17.1 | +27.4 | R+21.3 | R+4.2 | 55.4% | 25.6% | 19.4% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.