Which Virginia counties moved most toward Democrats in 2026?
By Dem movement (2026 margin minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points):
- Manassas Park city: +31.6
- Dickenson County: +30.8
- Buchanan County: +26.6
- Manassas city: +26.2
- Harrisonburg city: +25.3
Virginia: 2026 election results by county and religion
How much did Virginia move toward Democrats in 2026?
In Virginia, the Democratic margin in the 2026 U.S. Senate race shifted +16.8 points from Harris's 2024 margin (D+5.8 in 2024, D+22.6 in 2026), counting all votes together. 133 of 133 counties moved toward Democrats, and the median county moved +14.9 points.
Map of Dem movement by county in Virginia
R +30D +30Blue moved toward Democrats, red toward Republicans; the deeper the color, the bigger the move. Hover or tap a county for details.
Which Virginia counties have the largest Christian share, and how did they move?
Share of the 2020 population belonging to a Christian congregation (leaving out counties where members outnumber residents):
- Falls Church city: 96.1% Christian, Dem movement +7.7
- Lexington city: 92.0% Christian, Dem movement +16.4
- Manassas city: 82.4% Christian, Dem movement +26.2
- Buena Vista city: 82.2% Christian, Dem movement +22.2
- Covington city: 81.8% Christian, Dem movement +24.4
Virginia counties ranked by Dem movement
Dem movement is the 2026 Democratic margin in the state's top race (U.S. Senate) minus Harris's 2024 margin, in points. Religion columns are each group's share of the 2020 population, counting congregation members, not how people identify.
| County | Dem movement | 2024 margin | 2026 margin | Christian | Protestant | Evangelical | Catholic | No Congregation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manassas Park city | +31.6 | D+20.0 | D+51.5 | 11.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 88.9% |
| Dickenson County | +30.8 | R+62.2 | R+31.4 | 17.6% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 0.3% | 82.4% |
| Buchanan County | +26.6 | R+70.6 | R+44.0 | 25.3% | 24.8% | 22.4% | 0.1% | 74.7% |
| Manassas city | +26.2 | D+14.8 | D+41.0 | 82.4% | 25.4% | 8.0% | 51.9% | 13.8% |
| Harrisonburg city | +25.3 | D+25.4 | D+50.7 | 51.2% | 37.6% | 28.4% | 10.0% | 43.8% |
| Norton city | +25.2 | R+43.6 | R+18.4 | 47.8% | 44.1% | 36.2% | 3.7% | 52.2% |
| Prince William County | +24.7 | D+18.0 | D+42.7 | 35.6% | 18.0% | 12.9% | 15.2% | 59.0% |
| Covington city | +24.4 | R+33.3 | R+8.9 | 81.8% | 71.9% | 35.1% | 3.7% | 18.2% |
| Bristol city* | +23.9 | R+39.7 | R+15.7 | 105.3% | 86.7% | 67.9% | 15.3% | -5.3% |
| Russell County | +23.4 | R+67.5 | R+44.2 | 47.3% | 46.6% | 41.0% | 0.2% | 52.7% |
| Buena Vista city | +22.2 | R+44.4 | R+22.2 | 82.2% | 32.1% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 17.8% |
| Loudoun County | +21.5 | D+16.3 | D+37.8 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% | 12.6% | 71.3% |
| Lee County | +21.5 | R+72.0 | R+50.6 | 59.6% | 58.6% | 48.3% | 0.4% | 40.3% |
| Wise County | +21.4 | R+63.3 | R+41.9 | 30.4% | 28.8% | 21.9% | 0.3% | 69.6% |
| Winchester city | +20.8 | D+9.8 | D+30.6 | 74.3% | 35.1% | 13.6% | 34.9% | 23.6% |
| Radford city | +20.8 | D+0.5 | D+21.3 | 50.4% | 50.4% | 32.8% | 0.0% | 49.6% |
| Smyth County | +20.6 | R+60.4 | R+39.9 | 35.5% | 33.7% | 22.8% | 1.2% | 64.5% |
| Washington County | +20.4 | R+53.3 | R+32.9 | 54.4% | 51.4% | 40.1% | 1.6% | 45.3% |
| Giles County | +20.0 | R+54.5 | R+34.5 | 51.2% | 47.4% | 29.0% | 0.9% | 48.8% |
| Alleghany County | +19.9 | R+48.1 | R+28.2 | 45.0% | 43.7% | 28.7% | 1.3% | 55.0% |
| Spotsylvania County | +19.9 | R+8.6 | D+11.3 | 38.5% | 29.1% | 27.5% | 7.2% | 59.7% |
| Hopewell city | +19.9 | D+13.8 | D+33.6 | 45.4% | 37.9% | 27.6% | 4.6% | 54.6% |
| Stafford County | +19.5 | D+0.8 | D+20.3 | 30.1% | 23.9% | 17.3% | 3.2% | 69.4% |
| Bland County | +19.5 | R+69.7 | R+50.3 | 28.7% | 28.7% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 71.3% |
| Scott County | +19.0 | R+70.4 | R+51.4 | 41.4% | 40.5% | 28.7% | 0.4% | 58.6% |
| Frederick County | +19.0 | R+28.4 | R+9.4 | 32.4% | 30.6% | 20.9% | 0.0% | 66.9% |
| Roanoke city | +18.9 | D+23.6 | D+42.5 | 66.8% | 53.6% | 35.0% | 9.8% | 30.8% |
| Galax city | +18.8 | R+43.9 | R+25.1 | 73.9% | 73.9% | 42.5% | 0.0% | 26.1% |
| Pulaski County | +18.7 | R+44.7 | R+26.0 | 34.0% | 31.4% | 17.2% | 0.6% | 66.0% |
| Waynesboro city | +18.6 | R+5.7 | D+12.9 | 66.9% | 45.1% | 22.4% | 19.6% | 32.1% |
| Montgomery County | +18.2 | D+3.5 | D+21.7 | 32.3% | 24.1% | 15.3% | 6.4% | 66.7% |
| Wythe County | +18.2 | R+59.5 | R+41.3 | 48.0% | 44.3% | 28.5% | 2.1% | 52.0% |
| Colonial Heights city* | +18.0 | R+32.5 | R+14.4 | 108.0% | 78.6% | 64.7% | 27.1% | -8.0% |
| Caroline County | +17.7 | R+8.8 | D+8.9 | 33.9% | 28.4% | 19.7% | 4.6% | 66.1% |
| Staunton city | +17.4 | D+13.4 | D+30.7 | 58.8% | 42.2% | 22.4% | 13.0% | 40.8% |
| Tazewell County | +17.3 | R+68.9 | R+51.6 | 31.5% | 28.1% | 16.8% | 0.1% | 68.5% |
| Fairfax County | +17.1 | D+35.0 | D+52.0 | 40.0% | 19.9% | 12.9% | 17.0% | 52.0% |
| Fredericksburg city* | +16.9 | D+31.7 | D+48.7 | 132.8% | 71.0% | 44.8% | 57.5% | -32.8% |
| Floyd County | +16.8 | R+37.2 | R+20.4 | 33.2% | 30.6% | 22.9% | 0.6% | 65.9% |
| Roanoke County | +16.7 | R+22.5 | R+5.8 | 40.8% | 32.6% | 24.9% | 6.9% | 58.6% |
| Fairfax city | +16.6 | D+33.4 | D+50.1 | 77.6% | 35.0% | 20.3% | 37.7% | 5.8% |
| Salem city | +16.6 | R+19.3 | R+2.6 | 67.8% | 57.5% | 38.3% | 7.2% | 25.4% |
| Lexington city | +16.4 | D+26.7 | D+43.1 | 92.0% | 65.1% | 51.9% | 24.2% | 7.9% |
| Portsmouth city | +16.4 | D+38.6 | D+55.0 | 49.2% | 41.1% | 24.9% | 6.2% | 48.7% |
| Newport News city | +16.3 | D+28.8 | D+45.1 | 41.0% | 29.6% | 20.8% | 8.8% | 55.4% |
| Culpeper County | +16.3 | R+25.0 | R+8.7 | 42.6% | 32.9% | 23.3% | 6.7% | 53.1% |
| Orange County | +16.0 | R+24.7 | R+8.6 | 40.6% | 37.2% | 32.0% | 1.2% | 59.4% |
| Danville city | +15.9 | D+21.1 | D+36.9 | 70.7% | 58.2% | 48.1% | 9.5% | 27.2% |
| Chesterfield County | +15.9 | D+9.0 | D+24.9 | 47.1% | 30.6% | 23.1% | 14.2% | 50.7% |
| Greene County | +15.7 | R+24.7 | R+9.0 | 20.6% | 17.4% | 13.5% | 1.3% | 79.3% |
| King George County | +15.7 | R+25.0 | R+9.4 | 23.4% | 18.8% | 14.6% | 2.1% | 76.6% |
| Fluvanna County | +15.6 | R+6.3 | D+9.3 | 24.5% | 15.4% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 75.5% |
| Dinwiddie County | +15.4 | R+23.1 | R+7.7 | 34.9% | 34.9% | 23.9% | 0.0% | 65.1% |
| Henrico County | +15.4 | D+28.9 | D+44.3 | 45.8% | 29.7% | 21.1% | 14.4% | 46.0% |
| Page County | +15.4 | R+54.1 | R+38.7 | 31.1% | 28.1% | 12.2% | 1.7% | 68.2% |
| Norfolk city | +15.4 | D+41.5 | D+56.9 | 43.2% | 32.3% | 16.9% | 8.4% | 52.2% |
| King William County | +15.3 | R+40.6 | R+25.2 | 32.3% | 27.6% | 22.2% | 4.6% | 67.6% |
| Virginia Beach city | +15.3 | D+2.6 | D+17.9 | 37.3% | 24.4% | 17.8% | 11.5% | 62.0% |
| Henry County | +15.3 | R+32.8 | R+17.6 | 53.3% | 52.2% | 45.3% | 0.0% | 46.1% |
| Warren County | +15.2 | R+37.6 | R+22.4 | 33.2% | 20.3% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 61.3% |
| Grayson County | +15.2 | R+62.2 | R+47.0 | 38.1% | 38.1% | 24.8% | 0.0% | 61.9% |
| Bath County | +15.2 | R+53.8 | R+38.6 | 33.5% | 32.0% | 16.2% | 1.6% | 66.5% |
| Suffolk city | +15.1 | D+15.9 | D+31.0 | 34.0% | 32.1% | 23.0% | 0.7% | 65.7% |
| Chesapeake city | +15.1 | D+3.8 | D+18.9 | 44.5% | 34.2% | 25.1% | 9.2% | 55.2% |
| Craig County | +15.0 | R+64.7 | R+49.7 | 35.5% | 35.2% | 26.7% | 0.4% | 64.4% |
| Nelson County | +15.0 | R+7.5 | D+7.5 | 41.3% | 34.0% | 23.7% | 6.3% | 45.1% |
| Richmond County | +14.9 | R+30.2 | R+15.3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Hampton city | +14.8 | D+39.9 | D+54.7 | 48.6% | 40.7% | 28.5% | 6.7% | 47.7% |
| Buckingham County | +14.7 | R+23.5 | R+8.8 | 19.1% | 17.9% | 11.9% | 0.0% | 79.0% |
| Lynchburg city | +14.7 | R+7.9 | D+6.8 | 70.9% | 59.7% | 43.7% | 8.9% | 28.1% |
| Shenandoah County | +14.7 | R+42.2 | R+27.6 | 40.6% | 36.2% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 59.4% |
| Prince Edward County | +14.5 | R+2.6 | D+11.9 | 29.0% | 23.5% | 13.5% | 4.7% | 69.8% |
| Highland County | +14.4 | R+44.4 | R+30.0 | 55.1% | 55.1% | 24.6% | 0.0% | 44.6% |
| Rappahannock County | +14.4 | R+17.9 | R+3.5 | 37.8% | 32.6% | 21.4% | 5.2% | 61.3% |
| Accomack County | +14.2 | R+13.3 | D+0.8 | 43.0% | 31.7% | 14.3% | 9.8% | 56.9% |
| Carroll County | +14.1 | R+63.3 | R+49.2 | 40.6% | 38.6% | 26.2% | 0.6% | 59.4% |
| Prince George County | +13.9 | R+21.3 | R+7.4 | 24.1% | 19.3% | 14.4% | 3.5% | 75.9% |
| Franklin city* | +13.7 | D+22.8 | D+36.5 | 108.4% | 94.2% | 63.1% | 6.3% | -8.5% |
| Louisa County | +13.6 | R+26.2 | R+12.6 | 30.7% | 23.5% | 17.9% | 5.2% | 69.3% |
| Martinsville city* | +13.4 | D+22.6 | D+36.0 | 123.7% | 107.9% | 69.8% | 12.4% | -23.7% |
| Westmoreland County | +13.3 | R+14.3 | R+1.0 | 43.6% | 37.1% | 25.8% | 6.5% | 56.3% |
| Amherst County | +13.3 | R+36.5 | R+23.2 | 57.0% | 55.5% | 45.8% | 1.0% | 43.0% |
| Gloucester County | +13.3 | R+38.4 | R+25.1 | 34.6% | 28.6% | 18.8% | 5.0% | 65.4% |
| Isle of Wight County | +13.2 | R+19.8 | R+6.5 | 43.8% | 38.8% | 22.9% | 3.4% | 52.8% |
| Poquoson city | +13.2 | R+45.9 | R+32.7 | 35.9% | 32.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 64.1% |
| Brunswick County | +13.1 | D+8.5 | D+21.6 | 53.8% | 51.2% | 24.5% | 1.3% | 46.2% |
| Patrick County | +13.1 | R+60.4 | R+47.3 | 42.6% | 40.6% | 27.7% | 0.8% | 57.4% |
| Clarke County | +13.1 | R+16.9 | R+3.8 | 38.2% | 25.5% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 61.8% |
| Fauquier County | +13.0 | R+21.7 | R+8.7 | 39.9% | 28.6% | 16.8% | 9.3% | 59.7% |
| New Kent County | +12.9 | R+31.9 | R+19.0 | 27.9% | 21.0% | 15.4% | 4.5% | 72.1% |
| Botetourt County | +12.8 | R+45.1 | R+32.4 | 50.6% | 45.7% | 37.7% | 2.8% | 49.4% |
| Middlesex County | +12.7 | R+27.4 | R+14.7 | 38.1% | 32.0% | 19.0% | 4.6% | 61.9% |
| Northampton County | +12.6 | D+6.2 | D+18.8 | 50.6% | 41.4% | 16.0% | 5.8% | 49.4% |
| Augusta County | +12.3 | R+47.5 | R+35.3 | 37.8% | 36.8% | 25.5% | 0.0% | 62.2% |
| Pittsylvania County | +12.3 | R+43.1 | R+30.9 | 42.2% | 40.3% | 31.9% | 0.7% | 57.8% |
| Alexandria city | +12.2 | D+57.7 | D+70.0 | 35.5% | 22.0% | 6.8% | 10.5% | 60.2% |
| Hanover County | +12.2 | R+25.8 | R+13.6 | 51.2% | 37.9% | 26.7% | 11.4% | 47.9% |
| Nottoway County | +12.1 | R+22.4 | R+10.3 | 38.5% | 34.3% | 22.0% | 1.1% | 61.5% |
| Rockbridge County | +12.1 | R+33.8 | R+21.7 | 31.0% | 29.0% | 18.3% | 0.0% | 66.0% |
| Franklin County | +11.9 | R+45.3 | R+33.4 | 48.8% | 44.6% | 34.7% | 2.5% | 51.2% |
| York County | +11.9 | R+6.1 | D+5.7 | 45.4% | 34.6% | 24.2% | 8.9% | 54.5% |
| Mathews County | +11.8 | R+39.3 | R+27.5 | 80.9% | 76.8% | 56.4% | 4.1% | 19.1% |
| Southampton County | +11.8 | R+25.5 | R+13.7 | 48.1% | 48.1% | 29.0% | 0.0% | 51.5% |
| Goochland County | +11.8 | R+18.6 | R+6.8 | 37.5% | 36.7% | 19.9% | 0.0% | 53.6% |
| Cumberland County | +11.7 | R+22.2 | R+10.5 | 45.0% | 45.0% | 39.6% | 0.0% | 54.9% |
| Lunenburg County | +11.6 | R+22.8 | R+11.2 | 33.2% | 33.2% | 16.8% | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Essex County | +11.5 | R+7.8 | D+3.8 | 47.0% | 36.3% | 26.2% | 6.0% | 53.0% |
| Halifax County | +11.5 | R+21.1 | R+9.6 | 59.7% | 57.0% | 43.9% | 1.1% | 40.2% |
| Surry County | +11.4 | R+0.7 | D+10.7 | 49.2% | 49.2% | 39.2% | 0.0% | 50.7% |
| Albemarle County | +11.3 | D+34.1 | D+45.4 | 27.7% | 21.6% | 13.1% | 3.3% | 71.0% |
| Greensville County | +11.2 | D+9.3 | D+20.5 | 21.6% | 21.6% | 16.1% | 0.0% | 78.4% |
| James City County | +11.2 | D+6.2 | D+17.4 | 40.5% | 25.3% | 20.2% | 13.2% | 56.0% |
| Arlington County | +11.1 | D+58.6 | D+69.7 | 33.0% | 15.5% | 5.7% | 15.7% | 65.2% |
| Madison County | +11.0 | R+35.2 | R+24.2 | 36.0% | 33.6% | 22.5% | 2.4% | 57.4% |
| Powhatan County | +10.8 | R+44.1 | R+33.2 | 43.5% | 30.8% | 22.0% | 10.1% | 56.5% |
| Richmond city | +10.8 | D+66.3 | D+77.1 | 66.7% | 49.5% | 21.7% | 14.2% | 28.3% |
| King and Queen County | +10.8 | R+25.7 | R+14.9 | 42.7% | 40.2% | 24.2% | 0.0% | 57.2% |
| Northumberland County | +10.6 | R+21.2 | R+10.5 | 37.7% | 35.0% | 17.8% | 0.0% | 62.3% |
| Campbell County | +10.6 | R+48.6 | R+38.0 | 52.3% | 51.6% | 41.2% | 0.0% | 46.9% |
| Charlottesville city | +10.5 | D+68.7 | D+79.2 | 78.2% | 45.8% | 32.8% | 30.7% | 19.4% |
| Emporia city | +10.2 | D+31.0 | D+41.1 | 78.5% | 71.1% | 40.5% | 3.5% | 18.1% |
| Petersburg city | +10.0 | D+72.8 | D+82.8 | 76.7% | 60.4% | 36.9% | 11.5% | 11.3% |
| Rockingham County | +10.0 | R+37.0 | R+27.1 | 47.7% | 46.3% | 34.1% | 0.2% | 52.0% |
| Sussex County | +9.9 | D+4.4 | D+14.4 | 36.9% | 32.7% | 13.6% | 0.4% | 63.1% |
| Charles City County | +9.9 | D+10.8 | D+20.7 | 55.9% | 55.9% | 37.1% | 0.0% | 44.1% |
| Mecklenburg County | +9.7 | R+20.8 | R+11.2 | 44.3% | 40.5% | 26.8% | 2.4% | 55.7% |
| Williamsburg city | +9.6 | D+44.5 | D+54.1 | 49.2% | 46.5% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 50.7% |
| Bedford County | +9.0 | R+50.4 | R+41.3 | 40.5% | 33.2% | 25.5% | 5.4% | 59.5% |
| Amelia County | +8.7 | R+44.4 | R+35.6 | 34.4% | 27.9% | 21.2% | 4.6% | 65.6% |
| Appomattox County | +8.6 | R+51.0 | R+42.4 | 62.7% | 60.6% | 51.0% | 2.1% | 37.2% |
| Falls Church city | +7.7 | D+62.2 | D+69.9 | 96.1% | 41.7% | 25.1% | 54.3% | 2.6% |
| Charlotte County | +7.5 | R+32.5 | R+25.1 | 44.8% | 43.5% | 32.1% | 0.0% | 53.6% |
| Lancaster County | +7.4 | R+7.0 | D+0.4 | 64.0% | 53.0% | 35.1% | 9.1% | 35.2% |
* The Religion Census counts church members where their church is, not where they live. That skews the religion shares of the 5 counties marked with an asterisk, where members outnumber residents.
Virginia congressional districts
"House vs. 2024" compares the 2026 House margin with Harris's 2024 margin inside the district's current lines (NBC News's district baseline); it is blank where only one party ran, where two candidates of one party met in a top-two race, or where NBC has no 2024 baseline. "Top race, from its counties" averages the county Dem movement of the district's counties, weighted by each county's House votes.
| District | Winner | House vs. 2024 | Top race, from its counties | 2024 president | 2026 House | Christian | Evangelical | Catholic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 | Taylor (D) | +7.3 | +13.6 | R+5.0 | D+2.3 | 45.1% | 22.6% | 10.9% |
| VA-02 | Luria (D) | +8.7 | +14.9 | R+0.2 | D+8.5 | 39.8% | 20.5% | 8.8% |
| VA-03 | Scott (D) | +13.4 | +15.6 | D+35.1 | D+48.5 | 44.7% | 22.5% | 8.0% |
| VA-04 | McClellan (D) | +12.8 | +13.8 | D+33.1 | D+45.9 | 53.5% | 23.7% | 12.2% |
| VA-05 | — | +10.2 | +12.1 | R+12.4 | R+2.2 | 45.5% | 28.0% | 5.5% |
| VA-06 | Cline (R) | +12.9 | +15.9 | R+24.1 | R+11.2 | 46.9% | 25.3% | 5.7% |
| VA-07 | Vindman (D) | +19.1 | +20.2 | D+2.8 | D+21.9 | 38.0% | 20.0% | 9.6% |
| VA-08 | Beyer (D) | +10.5 | +13.8 | D+50.8 | D+61.3 | 38.2% | 9.6% | 16.2% |
| VA-09 | Griffith (R) | +12.3 | +17.4 | R+44.4 | R+32.1 | 43.6% | 28.7% | 2.7% |
| VA-10 | Subramanyam (D) | +16.0 | +21.5 | D+8.7 | D+24.8 | 31.8% | 8.6% | 14.4% |
| VA-11 | Walkinshaw (D) | +14.4 | +17.0 | D+35.3 | D+49.7 | 41.2% | 13.1% | 17.7% |
Data: download the full report and all data. Method: how it's measured.